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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2020
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Author Topic: 2020  (Read 2597 times)
JerryArkansas
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« on: May 04, 2013, 02:33:02 pm »

I know that this is the 2016 board, but I have this question, who do you think would run in 2020 on both sides if Hillary wins in 2016 and decides to not run for reelection, and her vp, Brown, doesn't seek the nomination.
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Blue3
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2013, 02:35:53 pm »
« Edited: May 04, 2013, 02:40:37 pm by Starwatcher »

Too early!

I don't see her not running for re-election, but if that's the premise, then it really depends on how popular she is when leaving and what shape the country is in. As well as when she announces, or else the Democrats will have a serious fundraising/organizational disadvantage.





O'Malley would probably want it. So would Cuomo. Gillibrand would probably be a popular choice (and she'll have gotten to replace Clinton twice! Tongue ).

But hopefully it's a new Hispanic or Gay national star... so we could have another historic election.
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Emperor Charles V
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2013, 07:42:31 pm »

This is what I think:



Marco Rubio / Eric Cantor (Republican) - 283 EV
Kirsten Gillibrand / Brian Schweitzer (Democrat) - 255 EV

Rubio also narrowly wins the popular vote.
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PJ
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2013, 08:08:50 pm »
« Edited: May 04, 2013, 08:18:54 pm by Politics Junkie »

This is just speculation:

Democrat: Schweitzer, Hickenlooper, Gillibrand, or Cuomo

Republican: Christie, Rubio, Cruz, or Ryan

Extreme social conservative third party: Santorum

Libertarian: Rand Paul

Primary Predictions: Cuomo wins democratic primary, chooses Hickenlooper or Schweitzer as VP to secure a swing state, Rubio wins GOP primary, not sure of VP, possibly Portman to get swing state. Can't imagine Rubio getting along with Christie or Cruz, and I doubt Paul Ryan would run for VP twice.

General election: Close, Cuomo wins due to Clinton's popularity, assuming she stepped down so she can enjoy her life. Paul and Santorum each win 5% of the vote, and no states
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NHI
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2013, 08:17:31 pm »

Too far out, but I think if Clinton runs and wins and '16 she probably run for reelection. If she does not, then the field is wide open. Even with a good economy, I predict a Republican victory, especially after twelve years out of power.

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illegaloperation
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2013, 08:58:00 pm »

If Hillary wins, there is about a 95% chance she would run for reelection. I mean, why not?
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2013, 09:05:22 pm »
« Edited: May 04, 2013, 09:23:46 pm by illegaloperation »

This is what I think:

Marco Rubio / Eric Cantor (Republican) - 283 EV
Kirsten Gillibrand / Brian Schweitzer (Democrat) - 255 EV

Rubio also narrowly wins the popular vote.

New Mexico is a blue state and is not coming back and both Nevada and Colorado are on their way to becoming blue states.

Also, Rubio is of Cuban origin and is not exactly beloved by the Hispanic community a lot of which are of Mexican origin.

The Democratic candidate probably won't carry Montana unless he/she already have well over 350 EV.
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PJ
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2013, 09:26:38 pm »

The dems would almost certainly win MT with Schweitzer as VP
This is what I think:

Marco Rubio / Eric Cantor (Republican) - 283 EV
Kirsten Gillibrand / Brian Schweitzer (Democrat) - 255 EV

Rubio also narrowly wins the popular vote.

New Mexico is a blue state and is not coming back and both Nevada and Colorado are on their way to becoming blue states.

Also, Rubio is of Cuban origin and is not exactly beloved by the Hispanic community a lot of which are of Mexican origin.

The Democratic candidate probably won't carry Montana unless he/she already have well over 350 EV.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2013, 09:33:14 pm »

The dems would almost certainly win MT with Schweitzer as VP
This is what I think:

Marco Rubio / Eric Cantor (Republican) - 283 EV
Kirsten Gillibrand / Brian Schweitzer (Democrat) - 255 EV

Rubio also narrowly wins the popular vote.

New Mexico is a blue state and is not coming back and both Nevada and Colorado are on their way to becoming blue states.

Also, Rubio is of Cuban origin and is not exactly beloved by the Hispanic community a lot of which are of Mexican origin.

The Democratic candidate probably won't carry Montana unless he/she already have well over 350 EV.

I doubt it will swing that much unless Schweitzer is actually running for President not Vice President.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2013, 09:45:22 pm »

Some problems with prognostication in this scenario.
It's possible that people elected to statewide office in 2014 or 2016 will be presidential contenders in 2020.
If Hillary Clinton is popular, someone in her administration may choose to run for the Democratic party's presidential nomination. And we don't have any idea who should we choose.

We can make some guesses.
On the Democratic side, Andrew Cuomo would be a force to be reckoned with as a big-state Governor with impressive Washington experience and a record as a prosecutor.
Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden would likely be too old. Deval Patrick will have been out of office for too long.
Cory Booker will be on the tail end of his first term in the Senate.
Kirsten Gilibrand and Amy Klobuchar would likely consider it.

On the Republican side, much depends on the 2020 primary.
If the party went with Christie, he's done.
If the party went with Cruz, Christie can make an argument that they need moderation.
If the party went with Jeb, there will be a preference for someone new, not associated with past failures. That's bad news for Ryan, Rubio and Christie. Good news for Cruz.
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PJ
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2013, 09:51:56 pm »

Your probably right, but given Scweitzer's popularity in Montana, it would at least be as close as 2008.
The dems would almost certainly win MT with Schweitzer as VP
This is what I think:

Marco Rubio / Eric Cantor (Republican) - 283 EV
Kirsten Gillibrand / Brian Schweitzer (Democrat) - 255 EV

Rubio also narrowly wins the popular vote.

New Mexico is a blue state and is not coming back and both Nevada and Colorado are on their way to becoming blue states.

Also, Rubio is of Cuban origin and is not exactly beloved by the Hispanic community a lot of which are of Mexican origin.

The Democratic candidate probably won't carry Montana unless he/she already have well over 350 EV.

I doubt it will swing that much unless Schweitzer is actually running for President not Vice President.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2013, 12:07:01 am »

It's still early.  We'll have a better idea of potential candidates in about a year's time, when we see what the landscape is for the 2014 midterms, and at least who's likely to be the nominee for each of the major races next year.  However….

Here are some Democrats who might run in 2020 if the incumbent president is a Republican:

Cory Booker
Charlie Crist
Andrew Cuomo
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom (in the unlikely event that there's an opening in the CA governorship or senate seat for either of them by 2016)
John Hickenlooper
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Lisa Madigan
Martin O'Malley
Brian Schweitzer

Here are some Republicans who might run in 2020 if the incumbent president is a Democrat:

Sam Brownback
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Ken Cuccinelli
Nikki Haley
Bobby Jindal
Susana Martinez
Rand Paul
Mike Pence
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan or Scott Walker

Obviously, much depends on who the nominees are in 2016.  For example, on the Dem. side, if Clinton runs, she likely clears the field, and we so no major challengers in the 2016 primaries, so no Cuomo, O'Malley, Klobuchar, etc. candidacies.  If she then wins the nomination, but loses the general election, then most of those candidates who wanted to run in 2016 would seize their chance in 2020, so you might well end up with someone like Cuomo in 2020.

OTOH, if Clinton *doesn't* run, then many of the above names will run in 2016.  If the 2016 nominee is a man, like a Cuomo or Hickenlooper or O'Malley, then there's a good chance that they pick a woman for VP (Gillibrand and Klobuchar being the most likely possibilities).  If the ticket then loses, there'll be a strong desire to finally put a woman at the *top* of the ticket in 2020, and that losing female VP (be it Gillibrand, Klobuchar, or someone else) will be considered the early frontrunner, at least on the basis of name recognition.

On the GOP side, many of the leading 2016 possibilities are relatively young and haven't run before (e.g., Christie, Jindal, Paul, Rubio, Walker).  If one of them wins the 2016 nomination but loses the general election, then I could see whoever came in second being the early frontrunner for the 2020 nomination.  Isn't working out that way for Santorum in 2016, but I could definitely see the runner up rule returning for 2020.
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PJ
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2013, 01:17:23 am »



My map for 2020.

Andrew Cuomo D Governor of NY/Brian Schweitzer D Senator from MT
Marco Rubio R Senator from FL/Rob Portman R Seantor from OH
Rand Paul L Senator from KY/Gary Johnson L Governor of NM
Rick Santorum Defense of marriage party Representataive from PA/Other guy Defense of Marriage Party
States that vote R are in 30's, 40's, and 50's because of division between R's, L's, and DOM's
This is just speculation:

Democrat: Schweitzer, Hickenlooper, Gillibrand, or Cuomo

Republican: Christie, Rubio, Cruz, or Ryan

Extreme social conservative third party: Santorum

Libertarian: Rand Paul

Primary Predictions: Cuomo wins democratic primary, chooses Hickenlooper or Schweitzer as VP to secure a swing state, Rubio wins GOP primary, not sure of VP, possibly Portman to get swing state. Can't imagine Rubio getting along with Christie or Cruz, and I doubt Paul Ryan would run for VP twice.

General election: Close, Cuomo wins due to Clinton's popularity, assuming she stepped down so she can enjoy her life. Paul and Santorum each win 5% of the vote, and no states
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2013, 05:48:58 pm »

A third major party is in the works so I'm not going to prognosticate who's running yet.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2013, 08:02:37 pm »

A third major party is in the works so I'm not going to prognosticate who's running yet.

Um what?
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PJ
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2013, 08:12:03 pm »

I'm guessing they mean that either Rand Paul will lead a lot of Republicans to Libertarian Party, or the Rick Santorum types will go even farther to the right, leaving a Libertarian GOP. But the GOP needs to become somewhat socially moderate to survive, so there's little chance of that happening.
A third major party is in the works so I'm not going to prognosticate who's running yet.

Um what?
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2013, 08:25:07 pm »

Watch guys like Rubio, Paul, Lee, and Cruz with regards to this coming third party.
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2013, 08:33:33 pm »

Watch guys like Rubio, Paul, Lee, and Cruz with regards to this coming third party.

Thought that was declared dead
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Marxist-Cornpopist Thought
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« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2013, 02:19:03 am »

Here's the Democratic shortlist:
Cory Booker
Andrew Cuomo
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris/Gavin Newsom (I expect Boxer to retire in 2016 to let one of them run. The other will run for governor)
Amy Klobuchar
Lisa Madigan
Brian Schweitzer

And for Republicans:
Chris Christie (if he doesn't get the nom in 2016 or run against Menendez)
Ted Cruz
Ken Cuccinelli
Susana Martinez
Marco Rubio
Brian Sandoval (he could run for Reid's seat in 2022 though)
Scott Walker

Dark-horse candidates include Julian Castro (if he beats Cruz in 2018), Kathy Castor (if Rubio gets the nom and she wins in 2016), Maggie Hassan, Karen Handel, and Tim Scott.
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2013, 01:45:23 pm »

And for Republicans:
Kathy Castor (if Rubio gets the nom and she wins in 2016).

But why would Castor get the nom over Crist, Sink, Iorio, Buckhorn, Brown, or even Smith or Dyer?
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