A Political Fable

[badgate]

Prologue

President Kelly Ayotte entered office with a 61% approval rating. The crowds at the inauguration rivaled crowds eight years prior, when President Barack Obama was sworn in. Not to be outdone, but Chief Justice John Roberts fumbled the oath again, however President Ayotte had practiced the oath beforehand and recited the correct line.

It had been a respectful campaign, but the voters rejected VP Joe Biden despite his one term pledge. Polls showed that Senator Klobuchar had been a divisive VP pick, and a sizeable amount of Democrats didn’t want her to be the nominee after Biden’s one term was over.

[badgate]

The Election Results

Presidential

Vice President Joe Biden / Senator Amy Klobuchar – 266, 48%

Senator Kelly Ayotte / Governor Scott Walker – 272, 51%

Senate

Democrats had kept their majority in 2014 at 51 seats, losing South Dakota, West Virginia, and Arkansas, and making a pickup in Georgia. 2016 proved to be a fruitful year for Democrats in the Senate.

30%=Pickup
50%=Open seat
90%=Hold

Democrats: 57

Republicans: 41

Independents: 2

[Enderman]

tis awesome! Do continue badgate!

[badgate]

I: 100 Days

President Ayotte’s first hundred days in office were defined by two major policy successes. In a series of executive orders her first week in office, the most notable one was instruction to have the FDA bring marijuana through the appropriate processes necessary before national legalization. The second success was the new President’s budget.
 
 
Her first budget was widely praised by her party, but in the 2016 election the Democrats had kept control of the Senate. Following a series of high-level negotiations between Sen. Harry Reid and Vice President Scott Walker, the Ayotte budget passed 62-37 with a three-year minimum wage increase to $10 being the only concession Reid was able to extract from the new Republican administration. The budget cut federal government overall by 15%, cutting Education, FEMA, and Transportation by 20%, and ending the NEA. The Ayotte budget also ended the Wind Energy Tax Credit, among other Obama era priorities.



In a speech during the floor debate, Senator Kristen Gillibrand declared, “The decline and fall of Rome is upon us, and Kelly Ayotte is the overseer.”

[Robert California]

Looks interesting!

[PolitiJunkie]

GILLIBRAND 2020!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This is great; Roberts messing up again was hilarious.

[badgate]

Thanks for the kind words y'all . This is the first TL I've written, so I wanted to just have fun writing it. I wrote the whole thing yesterday on my day off, so we don't have to worry about me crapping out halfway through! The next chapter, Food Fight is coming later tonight!

[PolitiJunkie]

Since it's all written out are you going to post it very quickly, or are you still going to make us wait?

[badgate]

Since it's all written out are you going to post it very quickly, or are you still going to make us wait?

Well where is the fun in that? I'll be posting two new entries a day.

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II: Food Fight

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, March 15, 1933 – December 4, 2017

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Ayotte had also asked House Speaker John Boehner to deliver a rewrite of national adoption laws limiting access LGBT couples had to available children, tort reform, and regulations for scientific research by the end of the year. By the time the adoption legislation made it to Ayotte’s desk, however, LGBT couples and individuals were largely unharmed, save for relatively flaccid provisions that remained only so Republicans could tell their base they stopped the gays. Many Senate Democrats walked out of the chamber in protest during the vote on Respect for Science Act, and Majority Leader Harry Reid became very unpopular in the caucus by the beginning of 2018.

Four months later…

Four months after the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, the Ayotte nomination of a pro-life judge was at a stalemate. Majority Leader Reid, who wanted a full court when a case from Nevada came to the court in 2020, came to President Ayotte and offered the votes she’d need to confirm her nominee if she helped the Democrats muscle new infrastructure and education appropriations through the Republican house.

Majority Leader Harry Reid (May, 2018)
Approve: 22%
Disapprove: 70%
Not Sure: 8%

[badgate]

III: The Midterms

After a slow legislative spring in 2018, the GOP overplayed their hand with a failed Social Security reform push. Though President Ayotte remained fairly popular, with a 54% favorable rating and 48% approval (42% disapproval), the cracks were starting to show in the policies she had passed. The months of May and June, which usually show employment gains-especially for part time jobs-were stagnant. And July was the first month with a job loss report since the 2008 recession had ended. Most of late June and early July were wall-to-wall news coverage of the Ayotte failures.
 

The sweltering temperatures didn’t help Republicans either; the majority of the party and Republican voters still called climate change a hoax, though the gap had narrowed. July 4th, 2018 was the hottest on record and Democrats took the summer heat as a bat and ball for the fall campaign.
 

The congressional Democratic caucus held a convention on July 10, where they informally nominated Rep. Chris Van Hollen to replace Nancy Pelosi as Minority Leader. Van Hollen became the face of the fall campaign, where the Democrats ran on establishing a “common sense Congress.”
 

In Van Hollen’s convention speech, which received 50 million views on YouTube by Election Day 2018, he promised that the Democrats in congress would work toward “reinstating the promise that our Founders made: that every elected official have the best interest of the people in their heart, that every child be able to attain an education that prepares them for the modern workforce, and that we take up the solemn mantle of environmental stewardship.”

[badgate]

The Midterms, results

 

House of Representatives

Democrat: 229 (+19)

Republican: 206 (-20)

Libertarian: 1 (+1)

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30%=Pickup
50%=Open seat
90%=Hold
 

Senate

Democrats: 59

Republicans: 40

Independents: 1

[Consciously Unconscious]

This is very interesting and well done.

[NHI]

Well done!

[badgate]

^Thanks!

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IV: Changing of the Guard

When Senator Harry Reid met with the Senate Democrats following the election, it was clear that his time as Majority Leader was over. Despite a rousingly successful midterm for the party, Reid had become less popular than former House Speaker John Boehner, and many in the Democratic party blamed Reid’s eagerness to compromise too much with President Ayotte for any number of things, including the Ayotte budget, which had been a wedge issue in many congressional districts.

Senate Majority Leader Richard J. Durbin

Speaker of the House Christopher Van Hollen

Much of the credit for the success of the 2018 midterms went to Sen. Dick Durbin and new Speaker Van Hollen. Reid refused to leave his post, and was voted out by the caucus and replaced by Durbin.

This proved embarrassing to Democrats, however, because Minority Leader Mitch McConnell accepted Reid’s offer to join the Republican party for the remainder of his term.

”I have decided under the circumstances that the Democratic party is not a welcome place anymore. For the remainder of my term I will caucus with the Republicans.”

McConnell made it clear that the NRSC would not support Reid if he ran for reelection, and Reid accepted the terms because he badly wanted to embarrass the Senate Democrats.

Senate

Democrats: 58

Republicans: 41

Independents: 1

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By the end of February 2019, one thing was for sure: The Democrats’ successes of 2018 would not carry into the next election. National polls showed New England and Rust Belt moderates bolting the party because of “Washington power plays.” Despite Ayotte’s low approvals (Jan. ’19: 47/45), she was winning 55% over a Generic D, and 49-53% over the most likely Democratic candidates.

[badgate]

 

V: Cheers and Jeers

WashPo: Ayotte cracks wise, Larry the Cable Guy disappoints at 2019 Correspondent’s Dinner Ayotte had the dinner guests roaring with rants and anecdotes about her first term as President. The dinner’s guest speaker, Larry the Cable Guy, earned laughs for a parody of Game of Thrones he had filmed depicting and mocking the inside politics of Senate Democrats. His speech, however, was meandering and underwhelming. Sorry, Larry.
 

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The 2020 Democratic primary revealed a feuding and divided party. With President Ayotte’s popularity on the rise after a successful legislative session with the Democratic congress-despite Speaker Van Hollen calling the shots on which legislation got attention-many in the party openly speculated that they should nominate a sacrificial lamb.
 
The divided Iowa caucus results speak for themselves:
 

Iowa Democratic Caucus

Senator John Barrow – 19%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand – 17%
Governor Tim Kaine – 15%
Senator Claire McCaskill - 12%
Governor Julian Castro – 10%
Senator Sherrod Brown – 9%
Senator Amy Klobuchar – 6%
Congressman Xavier Becerra – 5%
Ex-Senator Heidi Heitkamp – 4%
Ex-Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx - 3%
 
New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Governor Maggie Hassan – 20%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand – 18%
Governor Julian Castro – 15%
Senator Sherrod Brown – 13%
Congressman Xavier Becerra – 10%
Governor Tim Kaine – 9%
Senator Claire McCaskill - 7%
Senator John Barrow – 5%
Congressman Jason Carter – 3%

 
With no candidates able to claim a mandate in either of the first 3 primaries/caucuses, few of them saw a reason to drop out. Julian Castro and Tim Kaine were able to gain the high ground by being governors, and not being tagged with Senate Stigma. But their weaknesses were easily exploited and no candidate was able to capture the votes of a competitor's base of support. By Super Tuesday, six candidates were still in the race, and none had a clear path to the nomination.
 

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Claire McCaskill

John Barrow

Tim Kaine

Sherrod Brown

Kirsten Gillibrand - Pink
Julian Castro - Red
John Barrow - Light Blue
Tim Kaine - Navy
Claire McCaskill - Green
Sherrod Brown - Light Green
 


Tuesday, July 30, 2020
BREAKING: POLITICO obtains Ayotte campaign map ahead of DNC
 

Glenn Thrush – The map shows states the Ayotte campaign considers safe in dark blue, and states they intend to contest in light blue. Not surprisingly, due to the dwindling popularity of Democrats in the North East, Ayotte intends to make a grab for the reliably Democrat states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Deleware, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, and Maine. It’s an ambitious goal, but all told the Ayotte campaign stands a chance of winning 102 electoral votes that have gone to Democrats since 2008. The other light blue states have consistently been tossup states in the last three Presidential elections, and the Ayotte campaign is right to keep an eye out in those states. With the brokered Democratic National Convention set to begin next Monday, August 5th, the Ayotte campaign is seizing the moment to set the narrative of a dysfunctional, shattered coalition. Though to be perfectly honest, the Democratic candidates are mostly responsible for that narrative.

NEXT: The 2020 Democratic National Convention!

[NHI]

Great update!!

[Enderman]

c'mon Ayotte! Do you have her cabinet?

[badgate]

c'mon Ayotte! Do you have her cabinet?

I'll go back and do that tomorrow. I hadn't thought about it that much but I'll need to wrack my brain...especially for her foreign policy and defense people

Convention coming in a few minutes!

[badgate]

VI: The Convention

”We weren’t sure when he stepped onto the stage what would happen. I was back in the hotel suite to see whether or not the television channels kept airing the convention when he grabbed the mic. Fortunately, they’d placed the delegation from his home state up front…” – Preston Scott; The Nominee We Need

Welcome to the Democratic National Convention, July 20-24, 2020 in Chicago, IL

The first night of the convention brought in 37 million viewers the first hour, but as word of mouth quickly spread over the Internet of the madness of the new televised balloting it was up to 48 million for the second hour. The platform was easily adopted, but none of the two ballots cast on the first night showed much movement for any candidate.

On the second day, ceremonies were held during the afternoon for the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Library. Construction on the library was not 100% complete, but the convention managers recognized that Obama had become very popular since leaving office, with 32% of the country saying that Obama being out of office gave them a "new perspective" on how his policies had affected the country. Nostalgia seemed to be growing for the vital economy Obama had left President Ayotte with, as well.

Barack and Michelle Obama at the reception for the opening of his Presidential Library.

In a last minute programming change, an edited version of the dedication ceremony was aired for the first half hour of the evening convention coverage, which included a short address by former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, as well as other Obama administration notables. This was done partially to give the campaigns more time to lobby delegates before the third ballot.

After the video of the Presidential Library dedication, former President Barack Obama took the stage to address the roaring crowd. He provided an on-point deconstruction of the Ayotte failures, including the dismantling of his work in office, arguing that it had been a shove backward for America. Many compared the speech to how acutely former President Clinton tore down Mitt Romney in 2012.

Though Obama did not explicitly endorse a candidate, he made mention of Governor Tim Kaine's election day registration bill, among other reforms Kaine had accomplished in Virginia during a riff on the Ayotte administration's "War on Voting." The word through the grapevine was that Obama had been lobbying for Kaine behind the scenes, including a 15-minute private meeting he took with the Castro and McCaskill campaign managers in his Library's Oval Office replica during the reception earlier that day.

The convention managers had organized a four-hour second night. The first hour (6pm CT) was all Obama, and the next two were reserved for limited speeches from each of the six candidates. Then the third ballot would be cast.

“Senator Brown was the last to speak. He left the stage to boos from most of the audience. I don’t think they liked what he had said about the other candidates.” – Preston Scott
By his convention speech Brown’s campaign had decided going full tilt negative was the only way to be nominated.

As Senator Brown left the stage, the future nominee brushed past him. “What’s going on?” he asked his aide. “They’re about to do the third f*@#ing ballot!” Brown hadn’t seen the face of the man now walking onto the stage. The convention hall was filled with confused chatter, but then the small delegation near the podium broke into cheers when they recognized the Congressman from Mississippi’s 4th congressional district.

”Excuse me, please. I’m sorry-I know I’m not supposed to be speaking to you tonight. … We need a new path. There’s been bickering and jeers, but that’s what makes our party the people’s party. We’re like the great American family: united by our freedom, and free to be as different as we want. And we need a champion in the White House, a fierce public servant. There must, there must be an education for every child in America. There must be a roof over their heads, and a job for their parents. We need to protect all workers, extend a hand to foreign nations in need, be peacekeepers, not sword beaters. And so I ask that this convention consider me for their nominee for President of the United States of America!”

Halfway through the impromptu address, the director in the AV booth posted his name on the screen behind the podium for the delegates. The chant quickly grew cacophonous, filling the convention hall and echoing through the streets of Chicago...

"Taylor!...Taylor!...Taylor!...Taylor!...Taylor!"

[badgate]

Meanwhile, in the Hyatt 4-Star Suite...

Bill: You think he's got a chance?

James:  F#ck no.

Hillary: Maybe if Aaron Burr drops out.

pause

Bill (standing up): I'm endorsing him before this f#cking ballot is over.

Hillary: What?!

[badgate]

VII: Ladies, Please Stay

Dan Balz - It was the fourth night of the cacophonous DNC. Presidents Obama and Clinton were both meeting with the party’s nominee about who his Vice President would be. Few people were in the room, but we know Gene Taylor’s pro-life stance was their chief concern. Obama had lobbied behind the scenes for Taylor on the fourth and final ballot, and Clinton had announced his endorsement shortly after Taylor’s convention address, much to the anger of Kirsten Gillibrand, who had expected the endorsement.

Gillibrand also ruled herself out of consideration for Veep after that endorsement, and McCaskill was seen as weak since her states were some of the first to go for Taylor on the third ballot.

Since the convention, Taylor has worked vigorously to reassure women’s groups such as EMILY’S List that his opposition to abortion shouldn’t be an issue. Last Wednesday, his campaign released a detailed health care reform plan that targeted these concerns. The plan included free access to the HPV vaccine for every female child in America, paid maternity leave, and mandatory birth control coverage in addition to many other Liberal fantasies. In a statement to reporters after a stump speech, Taylor said of the reform plan, “Much has been made about my opposition to the medical practice of abortion, but I will stake my presidency on this plan: I will not reduce the number of abortions in America by making them illegal, I will end the need for abortion in America. No longer will the healthcare industry consider the female gender to be a pre-existing condition. No longer will stigma or economic standing be a barrier to safe sex, a healthy life, and the choice to plan your parenthood.”

Despite his initial low name recognition, Democratic nominee Gene Taylor has been on a relentless bus tour across many southern and Midwestern states, and surrogates in Democrat strongholds have been going all out in talking up their “Independent voice and mind, outsider” nominee.

But the key player for the Taylor game plan to keep the Democratic coalition came in his nominee for Vice President, Hawai'i Governor Tulsi Gabbard.

Taylor/Gabbard 2020

[John Fettercuck]

Go Taylor. Ayotte makes me sick to my stomach.

If Cochran retires I hope he can pull a Senate victory out of his ass in OTL next year.

[badgate]

VIII: Taking Stock

Wednesday, August 12, 2020
FIRST MAJOR NATIONAL POLL RESULTS

In the first comprehensive state-by-state national poll in the Fall campaign, Democratic Nominee Gene Taylor has his work cut out for him. President Ayotte is riding high in the electoral college after her resounding convention speech last week. Most of the nation has made an impression of Taylor now, but the Ayotte campaign has done a good job of drawing his negatives up fast. Having a convention of Republicans badmouthing you only two weeks after most Americans learned your name can't be good.

However, 70% of the electorate’s first impression of Taylor was his convention speech with 64/31 saying it made them more likely to vote for him. Saving Our Future PAC, a pro-Ayotte PAC, has been airing ads in many swing states casting doubt on the time Taylor spent out of the House, from his 2010 defeat to his successful rematch in the 2018 Midterms. Though Taylor is doing well among men for a Democrat, the gender gap is not working in his favor right now. Below are the states that could go either way in gray, as well as shading to indicate likely and safe states for either candidate.

Congressman Gene Taylor / Governor Tulsi Gabbard – 192, 36%

President Kelly Ayotte / Vice President Scott Walker – 271, 44%

Tossup – 75, 13% undecided

Friday, August 21, 2020

President Ayotte signs Employee Free Choice Act with mandatory sick leave amendment, breaking major campaign promise

After seeing a veto-proof majority in the House, President Ayotte signed the Employee Free Choice Act today at 3:22pm, alone in her office. The legislation, which is totally awesome, also requires businesses to provide paid sick leave for all workers. While polls say this will help Ayotte in the typically Democratic states that she is contesting in her reelection campaign, it is a major campaign promise that she has broken, and she will have to justify it in the Presidential debates in October.

Tuesday, August 25, 2020 Presidential Tracking Poll

Taylor/Gabbard 40% (+4)

Ayotte/Walker 42% (-2)

[NHI]

Good update! Go Kelly!