Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[Fuzzy Bear]

I normally don't believe polls are wrong, but in this race, I think that Cuccinelli will pull off a huge upset.

If he were running against anyone else, I would not say this, but McAuliffe is such a consensus sleazebag that I've got to think that a number of folks in the middle will gag on him.  Virginia has some moderate Republicans, and they will, in the end, stick with Cuccinelli, only because McAuliffe is a sleazeball. 

McAuliffe is a sleazeball to the point where it is hard to imagine how he will effectively govern.  He will never be able to garner popularity to put forth his own legislative program.  He's damaged goods before he's even elected.  And there's 2 weeks to bring people to see this.  Cuccinelli's baggage is ideological to a point, but McAuliffe's is personal, and it's there for good.

[Fuzzy Bear]

So why did McAuliffe underperform?

Being Terry McAuliffe didn't help, for one.

And that's an understatement.

I predicted earlier that the polls putting McAuliffe out in front at the level they put him were wrong.  I also predicted that the relative unsavory image of McAuliffe would enable Cuccinelli (who, whatever his issue positions, was not considered the sleazebag McAuliffe was in some circles) to mount a comeback, and, while he did not prevail, I believe that this is what happened.

Cuccinelli did not lose because of his social conservatism.  Cuccinelli lost because the national GOP gave up on the race.  Unwisely, I might add, because Terry McAuliffe was a candidate with an absolute slew of weaknesses.  It is a sign of weakness among the national GOP that they could not prevail on Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to endorse Cuccinelli; this race was important to the national party and had implications beyond Virginia.  Failing to do so left the GOP with a Gubenatorial nominee unendorsed by a sitting Lt. Governor of his own party, who is now damaged goods in future elections because of his failure to endorse Cuccinelli, which weakened the GOP even further.  Cuccinelli was a vocal pro-lifer, but his issue positions weren't so far out of line as to be remarkable for a statewide VA candidate; he was no Todd Aiken and no Richard Murdouck.   The GOP needed to put more money into Cuccinelli's race, and it needed to twist a few arms of key Republicans to, at a minimum, endorse the ticket.  Virginia is steadily trending Democratic; one wonders why the national GOP, by ignoring a winnable race, chose to help that process along.