Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[Brittain33]

The thought of Terry McAuliffe winning any elected public office (let alone Governor of a swing state) is astonishing and all of you would agree if you set aside your feelings on Cuccinelli.

Anyway, Terry will be an unquestionably disastrous Governor, most likely scandal plagued and extremely unpopular. VA Dems will be tagged as "McAuliffe Democrats" over the next few years and the GOP will benefit.

Cuccinelli is simply falling on his sword to ensure greater days to come. You all talk about the day that marked the end of this campaign. That's fine. I look at it this way though: Inauguration Day is when the VA GOP will be reborn.

Is this meant to be a parody post?

I was skeptical of McAuliffe, but if Haley Barbour could change from a sleazy politico and lobbyist to an effective governor, so could McAuliffe.

Cuccinelli and his ilk are done in Virginia. His 2004-style politics are going to get more and more stale as Virginia grows more diverse.

[Brittain33]

Uh, no. The idea that McAuliffe will be unpopular or scandal plagued isn't some hack point. You can disagree but that doesn't make the suggestion a joke.

I think there's a decent chance he becomes unpopular, but I don't think his odds are any worse than any other politician. Counterintuitively, because he's not coming in as the messiah and because he's experienced (if little else), I think he benefits from low expectations. Also, Republicans are guaranteed to hold the Assembly, so he's got a foil.

Also, he's already so rich, and he's seen enough issues in public office, that I'm optimistic he won't be a scandal magnet. He's got 4 years to govern and he's out, that's not too long a time to keep his nose clean.

I don't see that he's headed for complete and utter disaster the way that, I don't know, you could tell with Paul LePage it was going to happen.

[Brittain33]

For background, I've been reading This Town the past few weeks so have a better sense of McAuliffe than I did before, when I thought he was just a stale fundraiser retread with zilch to offer. I don't love him, but he's not a joke.

[Brittain33]

Dems love referencing 2004. "It's not 2004 anymore!" It's their way of saying, "We've moved on from the Bush years/once pretty popular culturally conservative positions motivating the nation." It was a GOP base-driven time. You'll remember how exit polls showed that "moral issues" were the top concern for many voters that year. Gay marriage bans were on the ballot in many states, helping to turn out social conservatives. This was a low point for their party so they're naturally going to enjoy reminding themselves that those days are over.

Well, being gay married myself, my priority is for my own life and not for "my own party's lows." Yes, I enjoy reminding myself that we don't have a majority of Americans voting on my rights and blaming me for their own problems. What a partisan I am.

2002 was a lot worse for me as a Dem than 2004. 2004 was nasty because of the same-sex marriage bans, plus it was depressing that Bush won, but the Dems put up a fight and turned out, unlike 2002 when we gave up. And Bush's second term when to sh!t in record time.

[Brittain33]

2004-style?

He's a culture warrior and Bush-era Republican. It's been a while since Republican standard bearers put culture issues on the front burner like he has, and those days aren't combing back.

[Brittain33]

Terry McAuilffe winning in a landslide is almost literally nauseating.

You brought it upon yourselves.

It's our fault Virginians are Italophobic? That's what this is really about.

Tell us more.

[Brittain33]

Shades of Phil circa 2006 with the PA Senate race but...

New Quinnipiac shows McAuliffe only up 45% to 41% with 4% undecided - http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/virginia-governor-race-ken-cuccinelli-terry-mcauliffe-poll-99080.html?hp=r3

With Sarvis out of the question, McAuliffe's lead is down to two points. Only 62% of Sarvis voters are said to be definitely voting for him.

Seems like undecided Republican voters are coming home. 

[Brittain33]

Shades of Phil circa 2006 with the PA Senate race but...

New Quinnipiac shows McAuliffe only up 45% to 41% with 4% undecided - http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/virginia-governor-race-ken-cuccinelli-terry-mcauliffe-poll-99080.html?hp=r3

With Sarvis out of the question, McAuliffe's lead is down to two points. Only 62% of Sarvis voters are said to be definitely voting for him.

Seems like undecided Republican voters are coming home.  

How about it being an outlier?
Cuccinelli has been abandoned by national Republicans and his campaign's spending has been decreasing for a month now. That's the surest sign we'll ever have that his case is hopeless.

Oh, it may be an outlier. But I do expect his numbers to go up (he's not really going to get 39%!) and I'm sure the undecideds and Sarvis voters include a lot of Republicans who will end up voting for him even as he loses.

[Brittain33]

From Cuccinelli's Twitter

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The definition of loserspeak

Time to break out J.J.'s rules of elections...

[Brittain33]

Here's a question. Will Gov. McAuliffe be the first Virginia governor in living memory to *not* be considered a potential presidential nominee after he wins?

[Brittain33]

Obenshain is ahead by 53 votes.

According to whom? Twitter and web sites are reporting multiple iterations, some with Herring ahead, all with the difference under a few hundred votes.

[Brittain33]

Cuccinelli did not lose because of his social conservatism.  Cuccinelli lost because the national GOP gave up on the race. 

Didn't the national GOP give up on the race because Cuccinelli's social conservatism was leading him to poll so badly?

[Brittain33]

But the fact that Cuccinelli got closer than Romney seems relevant. 

One way of looking at is that McAuliffe's margin over Cuccinelli's was smaller. Another is that Romney got 47.28% of the vote, Cuccinelli got about 45.3% (as of now.) The 2013 electorate should have favored Cuccinelli. While he did better than predicted, really McAuliffe did worse than predicted, and McAuliffe was so much worse of a candidate than Obama...