Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[IceSpear]

Poor Cooch. Stabbed in the back by his own Tea Party. Barring a last minute major revelation about McAuliffe's ethics problems, the shutdown just put the final nail in his coffin.

[IceSpear]

There are rumors that Bolling will endorse and do a commercial for McAuliffe.

It's been obvious for a while Bolling was going to endorse McAuliffe. He's just timing it for when it would have maximum impact, near the end.

Though I really don't know what his end game is. He'd never win a Republican primary (much less a convention) after this, but he's far too conservative to become a Democrat. Independent run in 2017?

[IceSpear]

There are rumors that Bolling will endorse and do a commercial for McAuliffe.

It's been obvious for a while Bolling was going to endorse McAuliffe. He's just timing it for when it would have maximum impact, near the end.

Though I really don't know what his end game is. He'd never win a Republican primary (much less a convention) after this, but he's far too conservative to become a Democrat. Independent run in 2017?

I don't think you understand the Virginia Democratic Party.

Bolling is essentially a Cuccinelli style Republican but without the rancid personality and in-your-face-ness. Sure you could point to Crist, but at least he could point to several bipartisan and centrist policies he had while governor. There's no way Bolling could win a Democratic primary.

[IceSpear]

There are rumors that Bolling will endorse and do a commercial for McAuliffe.

It's been obvious for a while Bolling was going to endorse McAuliffe. He's just timing it for when it would have maximum impact, near the end.

Though I really don't know what his end game is. He'd never win a Republican primary (much less a convention) after this, but he's far too conservative to become a Democrat. Independent run in 2017?

I don't think you understand the Virginia Democratic Party.

Bolling is essentially a Cuccinelli style Republican but without the rancid personality and in-your-face-ness. Sure you could point to Crist, but at least he could point to several bipartisan and centrist policies he had while governor. There's no way Bolling could win a Democratic primary.

Sure he could. It's not about actual policies. It's about the centrist appearance. Democrats in the media love that. How else is Tim "47%" Kaine a Senator from Virginia? How about Chuck Robb?

Virginia has changed a lot. If you need proof, read Tim Kaine's platform in 2005 vs. his 2012 platform.

[IceSpear]

Bill Bolling is not going to endorse McAuliffe.  He's not going to risk his political future to support an unpopular candidate.   

His political future in the Republican Party is already over. He was already tossed aside for not being sufficiently right wing enough, and the hate for him among the rank and file has grown even more because of the fact that he refuses to endorse Cuccinelli.

[IceSpear]

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/virginia-governor-election-cuccinelli-98089.html?hp=r5

Cuccinelli is scaling back his ad buys, meaning either A) The campaign is out of money or B) The GOP is giving up.


Either way, I'm declaring this campaign dead. TOD: 10/10/13

It was dead on October 1st at 12:01 AM.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Rand's ambition takes precedence over Ron's principles. He likely would've made a 3rd party run in 2012 if not for Rand as well.

[IceSpear]

Has Virginia become NJ?

No, the GOP just nominated the freak show as their ticket. If Bolling was running it would probably be a pure toss up, or maybe even tilt R.

[IceSpear]

So when will the other shoe drop on Blinghazi? I was hoping it would be before the election.

[IceSpear]

What's really impressive is that McAuliffe has a positive favorability rating. How is that even possible when it seems like most Democrats don't even like him?

[IceSpear]

A couple interesting things in those PPP crosstabs:

- Apparently the age group that loves Cuccinelli the most is 18-29? I'm skeptical.
- Very liberal/somewhat liberal voters and Obama voters have a higher favorable opinion of Bill Bolling than somewhat conservative/very conservative voters and Romney voters.

[IceSpear]

So since McAuliffe only ended up narrowly beating the Cooch, that pretty much confirms Bolling would've won had he been the nominee. But what do you guys think the margin would've been?

My guess:

52% Bolling
46% McAuliffe
2% Sarvis

[IceSpear]

The 18-24 vote would make sense if Sarvis took votes disproportionately from McAuliffe, which would also explain the unexpected narrow margin (The Cuccinelli 2nd choice people abandoned Sarvis for Cooch, while the McAuliffe 2nd choice people stuck with Sarvis). Maybe Cooch bringing in the Pauls helped?

[IceSpear]

Ken Cuccinelli won 18-24 year olds by six points.

If that doesn't shoot down some talking points, I don't know what will.

I didn't see any exit polls. Where are they?

Here's the PDF report.

Sarvis got 7% liberal support, 10% moderate support, while only getting 3% conservative support. Seems like Sarvis actually hurt McAuliffe more than he hurt Cuccinelli.