Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[illegaloperation]

Cuccinelli is more likely to win, not because of any other reason than because Republicans are more likely to turn out in non-presidential year than do Democrats.

Also, for the person who said that Donnelly wouldn't win has Mourdock not talk about rape: this is not true at all. Donnelly was already ahead in the poll before the whole controversy. I was following the race.

[illegaloperation]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

But remember, Virginia matches the federal government, by doing the opposite. We elected a Republican in '77 as a rejection of Carter, Democrats in '81, '85, and '89 to counter Reagan and Bush 1. In '93 Republican George Allen was seen as the canary in the coal mine of the Clinton backlash. In '97 another Republican was elected coinciding with Clinton's 2nd term. In '01 and '05, Democrats countered Bush 2. And then in '09 we had McDonnell pull an Allen and portend the anti-Obama wave in 2010. If McAuliffe wins, it'll be the first time Virginia elected a governor in agreement with the new President since the 1970s.

Maybe Ken Cuccinelli is so extreme that there a new phenomenon.

Anyway, Bill Bolling was a shoo-in... until he didn't get the nomination.

[illegaloperation]

If the Democrats are able to power a candidate as weak as McAuliffe to victory and sweep other statewide offices in an off-year, the Republicans are probably done in Virginia.

Maybe Virginia Democrats can give much needed help to their counterparts in North Carolina.

[illegaloperation]

The problem for Republicans is that if the Democrats keep sweeping state races, Republicans won't have a very good bench to compete.

Who else does the Republicans have beside Bill Bolling?

[illegaloperation]

Bolling is essentially a Cuccinelli style Republican but without the rancid personality and in-your-face-ness. Sure you could point to Crist, but at least he could point to several bipartisan and centrist policies he had while governor. There's no way Bolling could win a Democratic primary.

Sure he could. Isn't there a DINO running for Lt. governor right now?

[illegaloperation]

It looks like Republican counties are about to max out.

[illegaloperation]

Any guesses as to whether Mark Herring will win?

[illegaloperation]

Anyone got county maps?

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/elections/guide/2013/VA/general/?hpid=z3

[illegaloperation]

Unfortunately, I don't think that Herring will be able to jump that gap.

[illegaloperation]

Herring is now trailing by ~1400 votes.