PPP: Kentucky = swing state in a matchup with Hillary vs. Paul & Rubio

[Tender Branson]

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 40%

...

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?

Favorable........................................................ 45%
Unfavorable .................................................... 43%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Marco Rubio?

Favorable........................................................ 34%
Unfavorable .................................................... 26%

...

Do you think Rand Paul should run for President in 2016, or not?

He should run ................................................. 30%
He should not.................................................. 50%

...

Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?

It should be allowed ........................................ 27%
It should not .................................................... 65%

...

Do you consider yourself to be a Southerner, or not?

Consider yourself a Southerner ...................... 72%
Do not ............................................................. 22%

...

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 51%
Republican...................................................... 39%
Independent/Other.......................................... 10%

...

PPP surveyed 1,052 Kentucky voters as well as 320 usual Republican primary voters
from April 5th to 7th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.0% and +/-5.5%
for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or
political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_411.pdf

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?

It should be allowed ........................................ 27%
It should not .................................................... 65%

...

Democrat ........................................................ 51%
Republican...................................................... 39%
Independent/Other.......................................... 10%

*headdesk*

[Mr. Morden]

Should same-sex marriage be allowed?

Democrats:
yes: 37%
no: 54%

Republicans:
yes: 12%
no: 80%

Independents:
yes: 34%
no: 60%

In how many other states is SSM trailing among Democrats by double digits?

[Maxwell]

Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?

It should be allowed ........................................ 27%
It should not .................................................... 65%

...

Democrat ........................................................ 51%
Republican...................................................... 39%
Independent/Other.......................................... 10%

*headdesk*

Is every Democrat in Kentucky Joe Manchin?

[Brittain33]

This is why I'm suspicious of polls showing a majority in favor of SSM in Ohio.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Weird, because everybody I know in Kentucky who is under the age of 45 supports marriage equality now.

[Mr. Morden]

Very little age gap on this one:

Should same-sex marriage be allowed?

18-29:
yes 30%
no 63%

30-45:
yes 26%
no 68%

46-65:
yes 29%
no 63%

over 65:
yes 24%
no 66%

Once the older generation dies off in Kentucky, support for SSM might reach 30%! 

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Even the youngs are against it.  I'll be damned.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I support marriage equality. I'm 39.

[CatoMinor]

Weird, because everybody I know in Kentucky who is under the age of 45 supports marriage equality now.

Your neighborhood is not exactly a representative sample.

[Mehmentum]

That gay marraige result should be pretty disturbing for the GOP.  The conventional wisdom is that as more Republicans embrace same sex marraige, the GOP will have to moderate. 

If Kentucky is representative of other red states, that may not be the case.  The GOP will be essentially trapped.  They can't risk aleinating their base, but as time goes on, gay marraige will become more and more toxic out of GOP circles.

This also highlights why the Supreme Court needs to step in on gay marraige.  Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi, etc. are not adopting gay marraige anytime soon.

[Mr. Morden]

That gay marraige result should be pretty disturbing for the GOP.  The conventional wisdom is that as more Republicans embrace same sex marraige, the GOP will have to moderate. 

If Kentucky is representative of other red states, that may not be the case.

I don't think it's at all representative of other Republican states*.  It's got a bunch of culturally conservative Southern whites, but far fewer blacks or other racial minorities (as a percentage of the population) than other Southern states.  You might see some similar numbers in Oklahoma and West Virginia, but probably not anywhere else.


* I refuse to use the term "red states".

[HAnnA MArin County]

Hillary's position on social issues won't affect how she will do in Kentucky. Kentucky is the heart of Clinton Country. This is a state that Bill won twice, albeit narrowly, and we remember in the 2008 primaries that the Appalachian states were where she annihilated Barack Obama by 3-to-1 (and sometimes even 4-to-1 margins). IIRC, Magoffin County in Southeastern Kentucky was her best county nationwide. I think it the margin was like 93-5, almost a mirror image of Obama's performance in King County, Texas during the general election. Lol ..her populist message on jobs and the economy will resonate wonderfully with Bluegrass voters.

Also, FWIW, I remember seeing a poll out of Kentucky that showed while John McCain trounced Obama by over 20 points in the state, Hillary led McCain by 9-10 points. Her presence on the ticket could certainly bring back the old electoral map of where Kentucky, Tennessee and Louisiana are swing states. I say she defies the strong Republican trend in Arkansas and West Virginia and carries both states on Election Day. Call me crazy, but I also think she could shave off some of the margin in Oklahoma as well. I remember only seeing one poll out of Oklahoma that showed her trailing McCain by only seven points, which is substantial considering the Sooner State's recent voting habits of going Republican by over 30 points.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

her populist message on jobs and the economy will resonate wonderfully with Bluegrass voters.

I don't know about Hillary, but Bill Clinton hardly governed as a populist.

I used to like the Clintons too, before the school uniform garbage started up.

[Beet]

Fascinating that 72% of Kentuckians consider themselves Southerners.

Also, gun control (46%) is more popular in Kentucky than gay marriage (27%).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Fascinating that 72% of Kentuckians consider themselves Southerners.

I don't.

[windjammer]

Fascinating that 72% of Kentuckians consider themselves Southerners.

I don't.

You are the exception that proves the rule.

[Mr. Illini]

The percentage of Democrats in this poll may have thrown the poll off. I don't think that that proportion of Kentuckians consider themselves Democrats, much less voting Kentuckians.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The percentage of Democrats in this poll may have thrown the poll off. I don't think that that proportion of Kentuckians consider themselves Democrats, much less voting Kentuckians.

The poll actually undercounted Democrats. Registered Democrats actually have a 1.5-to-1 edge over Republicans in Kentucky.

Another interesting note: As the percentage of registered Republicans in Campbell County has risen, the county has gotten more Democratic at the presidential level (unlike rural counties).

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Kentucky still has a TON of Blue Dogs in the Happy Chandler mold. This isn't all that surprising to me.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

Fascinating that 72% of Kentuckians consider themselves Southerners.

I don't.

You are the exception that proves the rule.

Yeah.  TNF and Bandit are pretty much diametrically opposed to what most Kentuckyians believe.  Heck, I'm a "right-wing fascist" compared to them and I'm still more liberal than the average Hoosier(though not by too much).