Hillary Clinton versus Rand Paul

[Liberalrocks]

Suppose Rand Paul is able to secure the 2016 GOP nomination and faces Hillary Clinton. What does the map and popular vote look like? How large is Clinton's victory?

[Lumine]

I would say that McGovern, Mondale and Goldwater will look like the symbols of Presidential victory after Hillary Clinton is done with Paul.

But speaking in a more serious tone, Paul might (and just might) be able to keep the popular vote close (and with close I mean a 5-7% margin), but I think he will lose the electoral college badly, Clinton v. Dole style.

[Maxwell]

As much as I'd like Rand Paul to be able to reasonably beat Hillary Clinton, I can not imagine that world. Lumine is about right I think, but I think polls would show a much greater margin, kind of similar to Clinton v. Dole.

[Beet]

I would love to see this race, partially for entertainment value. A lot of libertarian-progressive types would be really conflicted and might support Paul. Glenn Greenwald would be tearing his hair out.

[Governor Zeeland]

I can't see Hillary win a general election. She's been around too long, too polarizing, not to mention the women going into the voting booth, crying because they are scared of Bill Clinton..

[Maxwell]

I can't see Hillary win a general election. She's been around too long, too polarizing, not to mention the women going into the voting booth, crying because they are scared of Bill Clinton..

...

huh?

[Governor Zeeland]

just kidding :-) With the third.

[Maxwell]

Oh my bad. Reading and the internet

[Governor Zeeland]

Oh my bad. Reading and the internet

hehe know that feeling^^

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

376-134 (28 toss-up)

[wan]

376-134 (28 toss-up)

Rand Paul would possibly lose his home state as well. And Arkansas would most likely go to Clinton.

[Blue3]

In a recent presidential poll, Hillary Clinton beats Rand Paul in his homestate of Kentucky by a significant margin.

[Maxwell]

In a recent presidential poll, Hillary Clinton beats Rand Paul in his homestate of Kentucky by a significant margin.

You mean a tie?

[Donerail]

In a recent presidential poll, Hillary Clinton beats Rand Paul in his homestate of Kentucky by a significant margin.

recent=more than 3 years before the election.

[Blue3]

In a recent presidential poll, Hillary Clinton beats Rand Paul in his homestate of Kentucky by a significant margin.

You mean a tie?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/kentucky-hillary-clinton-would-beat-paul-rubio-in-2016.html

If Hillary Clinton was the Democratic candidate for President in 2016, she could win Kentucky. Against one of its home state Senators, Rand Paul. Despite the fact that the Republican nominee has won the state by at least 15 points in each of the last four Presidential elections. That, maybe more than any other data point that's come out in the last month, shows what a formidable candidate she would be and how important it is for Democrats that she run.
 
Clinton has a 48/42 favorability rating with Kentucky voters. By comparison Barack Obama's approval rating is 38/59. Clinton would lead Rand Paul 47-42 and Marco Rubio 48-40 in hypothetical match ups. That's because Clinton gets 73-74% of the Democratic vote in those match ups, similar to the 72-73% of the Republican vote that Paul and Rubio get. The reason Democrats lose time after time in Kentucky despite having a large registration advantage is that a very large number of Democrats don't vote Democratic for President, but Clinton would win over a lot of the party faithful who have declined to support Obama, Kerry, and Gore.



5 points is a significant margin. I made a thread on this in early December (it was locked for some reason).

[Mister Mets]

Interesting match-up.

Hillary Clinton's certainly one of the stronger possible Democratic nominees. I do think her numbers would go down a bit in a general election, simply because conservative voters would realize she stands in the way of a Republican president. McCain had a similar problem in 2008.

Rand Paul strikes me as a high risk, high reward candidate. If his campaign goes well, he could appeal to the usual Republican voters as well as certain swing voters, younger voters and the people who usually stay home on election night. But he could also come across as an extremist, with unconventional views scaring away a good chunk of the typical Republican voters.

[Mr. Morden]

The GOP would be torn apart if Rand Paul won the nomination.  There's a significant number of party elites* who would never be able to stomach his foreign policy views, or his views on certain civil liberties issues.  I know he's trying to be a bridge between his father's paleocon/libertarian fusionism and more "conventional" Republicans, but unless he moves farther in the latter direction, it's going to be a tough sell.

* "Party elites" of course refers not just to elected officials, but Fox News, the major talk radio hosts, etc.

[Maxwell]

In a recent presidential poll, Hillary Clinton beats Rand Paul in his homestate of Kentucky by a significant margin.

You mean a tie?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/kentucky-hillary-clinton-would-beat-paul-rubio-in-2016.html

If Hillary Clinton was the Democratic candidate for President in 2016, she could win Kentucky. Against one of its home state Senators, Rand Paul. Despite the fact that the Republican nominee has won the state by at least 15 points in each of the last four Presidential elections. That, maybe more than any other data point that's come out in the last month, shows what a formidable candidate she would be and how important it is for Democrats that she run.
 
Clinton has a 48/42 favorability rating with Kentucky voters. By comparison Barack Obama's approval rating is 38/59. Clinton would lead Rand Paul 47-42 and Marco Rubio 48-40 in hypothetical match ups. That's because Clinton gets 73-74% of the Democratic vote in those match ups, similar to the 72-73% of the Republican vote that Paul and Rubio get. The reason Democrats lose time after time in Kentucky despite having a large registration advantage is that a very large number of Democrats don't vote Democratic for President, but Clinton would win over a lot of the party faithful who have declined to support Obama, Kerry, and Gore.



5 points is a significant margin. I made a thread on this in early December (it was locked for some reason).

Way to not take the most recent poll. They tied in the most recent PPP poll.

[Blue3]

Well I didn't know about an even more recent one. Didn't think they'd already have another Rand Paul versus Hillary Clinton presidential election 2016 in Kentucky poll within just a few months

[Aliens]

If Rand Paul was running on his father's platform, he would have a better chance against Hillary Clinton (assuming that some angered Republicans don't launch a strong third party candidacy, of course.)  But either way, Hillary would still win.

[pbrower2a]

I can't see Hillary win a general election. She's been around too long, too polarizing, not to mention the women going into the voting booth, crying because they are scared of Bill Clinton..

She gets the Obama vote -- and the vote of people nostalgic for Bill Clinton who could never vote for Barack Obama. She has proved herself competent. 40-state landslide.

[bballrox4717]

Like people were saying, Clinton would win by a similar margin as the Dole contest (30-40 states for Clinton, 7-10 percent margin of victory for the popular vote), but Paul would start the rise of a new coalition in the Republican party. A Paul candidacy might be horrible for the Republicans in 2016 but awesome in the long run, since he's really the only candidate that could attract some youth to the Republican party and younger voters don't really seem too enthralled by Hillary.

[MadmanMotley]

As much as I would love to see Paul beat Hillary, she's still too popular. If she runs he should wait things out, let his dad run again in the primary (as much I'd love him to win he won't) and Rand should focus on keeping his senate seat and wait till 2020/2024.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The only way Rand has a chance is if there's a massive disaster that can been clearly seen as the fault of the status quo: an unsuccessful large-scale war, or national economic collapse.

[WalterMitty]

something like this if hillary were to expose rand paul's crazy economics.