Official Arkansas 2014 Gubernatorial Thread

[TX Conservative Dem]

Is Darr seeking reelection as LG in 2014 then now that he's backing out of the governor's race ?

[RogueBeaver]

He was never in the gubernatorial race, endorsed Hutchinson months ago. As for LG, see my previous comment. Darr's going for the 4th but he'll have to wait a couple more weeks.

[RogueBeaver]

Darr opposed Medexpansion but said he wouldn't have vetoed it because the Leg passed it, which makes no sense. Idiotic simple majority required for veto override is probably why. Or just peel away enough Pubs to sink the vote.

[RogueBeaver]

BREAKING: Halter has dropped out and is endorsing Ross. So the Dem leadership got their wish. Question is what Halter's next move is.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the letter. Doesn't mention any other political plans.

[windjammer]

Go Mike Ross!

[RogueBeaver]

More on this story: Dem establishment, which never liked Halter either personally or ideologically, felt that Ross was a stronger candidate based in part on Ross' ideas for grassroots candidate coordination. Plus they just can't stand Halter. The Blue Dogs retain their vise grip on the party.

So reconfirmation of Ross v. Hutchinson. A backflipped Dem with a financial edge, against a perennial Pub dinosaur with a slight poll lead in a rapidly Republicanizing state. $$$ doesn't mean anything here, just ask Lincoln.

[windjammer]

Hum, lean gop I suppose?

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, though Sabato said on Twitter he may move it to Tossup. We really need some polls here. I'd guess 52-46 Hutchinson or something like that as a final result. There can be a lot of vote splitting, particularly in statewide battleground CD4: remember that Beebe won 2-1 in 2010 as Boozman trounced Lincoln by 22.

[RogueBeaver]

Now unverified reports on Twitter that Curry has withdrawn from the LG race, saying she'll run for something in '16 but wanted a united party. So field is now cleared for Ross/Burkhalter. I'm impressed by ARDP's field-clearing ability. Too bad Pubs can't do the same.

Also confirmed reports that Pub legislators are busy strategizing on a severely conservative agenda for Hutchinson. Yet somehow I don't think Medexpansion repeal was among them.

[TX Conservative Dem]

So, Arkansas statewide musical chairs would look like this:

United States Senator-Mark Pryor (D-incumbent seeking 3rd term) could be in big trouble if US Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) runs.

Governor-OPEN: former US Rep. Mike Ross (D-AR) vs former DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson (R)

Lieutenant Governor (maybe open)

Secretary of State-Mark Martin (R-incumbent) vs.  Susan Inman (D)

State Attorney General-OPEN: who's guess depending on who's the respective Dem and GOP nominees to replace the disgraced Dustin McDaniel, who is term-limited.

State Auditor-OPEN

State Treasurer-OPEN

State Land Commissioner-John Thurston (R-incumbent) vs.  whoever is the Dem nominee.

[RogueBeaver]

Darr will be announcing for the 4th in 2-3 weeks, since it'll open up on Tuesday. Which means an open LG seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Darr Tweeted "Job opening" a few minutes ago for obvious reasons, and St. Rep. Charlie Collins (R) is the first candidate to replace him as LG.

[TX Conservative Dem]

It also appears the Arkansas GOP could sweep all statewide offices in 2014.

I just do not see Ross blocking the GOP tidal wave in statewide offices guys, just don't see it.

Too much anti-Obama sentiment and anti-Democratic sentiment in the Natural State.

[RogueBeaver]

Ross and Hutchinson at a watermelon-eating contest in Hope.

[windjammer]

Ross and Hutchinson at a watermelon-eating contest in Hope.

Who wins?

[RogueBeaver]

County sheriff, apparently.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Ross and Hutchinson at a watermelon-eating contest in Hope.

Ah, good old country style campaigning.

[Frodo]

It also appears the Arkansas GOP could sweep all statewide offices in 2014.

I just do not see Ross blocking the GOP tidal wave in statewide offices guys, just don't see it.

Too much anti-Obama sentiment and anti-Democratic sentiment in the Natural State.

I'm inclined to agree, sadly enough. 

BTW, do you also see the GOP expanding their majority in the Arkansas House?

[publicunofficial]

Larry Sabato has changed Arkansas from "Lean R" to "Toss-Up", for what it's worth.

[RogueBeaver]

That's primarily because of fundraising IIRC. Lincoln outraised Boozman by over 8-1 and it didn't exactly help. Ross needs a strong performance in Pulaski plus being highly competitive in his CD4 stomping ground due to the shifting demographics. Ultimately I think the red tide's too strong, plus Ross' backflips on guns and abortion are slam-dunks for Hutchinson. If Ross was even thinking about running for office again 8 months ago ... fatal move, but what's done is done.

[JacobNC]

When did Ross change his mind on guns and abortion?

[RogueBeaver]

Last   December for guns, April for abortion - the latter basically what Steve Lynch did in MA. He criticized the legislature for passing an abortion bill almost identical to one he voted for in the House. I was very surprised that someone as astute as Ross did that, but he did.

[RogueBeaver]

Beebe will formally endorse Ross on Saturday.

[RogueBeaver]

Ross opposes unfunded tax cuts but didn't explain how he would fund hypothetical tax cuts. Obamacare won't be an issue because both he and Asa support the private option.