Official Arkansas 2014 Gubernatorial Thread

[RogueBeaver]

Ross and Highway Commish John Burkenhalter are running as a ticket against Halter. The other LG candidate, LR school board member Dianne Curry, is not endorsing anyone but she seems like a Halterite.

[RogueBeaver]

Unsurprisingly, the AFL-CIO endorses Halter. Looks like another bruising primary, but I'd guess Ross wins. Apparently the ARDP's Blue Dog leadership was trying to push Halter into a race against Griffin, dunno if that's true (Jerry?).

[JerryArkansas]

Heard rumors about it.

[publicunofficial]

https://twitter.com/AaronBlakeWP/status/356850961869848576
http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/93477/62-of-75-arkansas-sheriffs-back-mike-ross-bid-for-governor

Mike Ross has raised $1.97 Mil in the second quarter, and has been endorsed by 62 of the 75 county sheriffs of Arkansas.

Don't give this race to the Republicans just yet folks.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Hutchinson's a mediocre nominee and Stenberg-type perennial. Though it must be said that Ross has backflipped on guns and abortion, something which Hutchinson should be able to use.

[RogueBeaver]

Now we have a clue about those Halter-out rumors: he raised only $92k (!!!) but has nearly $837k on hand, 600 of that self-funding. Doubt Hutchinson's numbers are great either, but he hasn't held elected office in a dozen years or office period in 8.

[RogueBeaver]

Halter could drop out entirely or run for the 2nd or 4th. I doubt a man who bucked the entire state establishment to nearly primary an incumbent Senator would drop out of the cycle entirely. I'd say the 4th if he did switch, but it isn't open yet.

[Miles]

Though he lives in CD2, it gave Halter his worst showing in 2010. The only district he carried was CD4, so yeah, that would be the obvious choice for him.

[publicunofficial]

Now we have a clue about those Halter-out rumors: he raised only $92k (!!!) but has nearly $837k on hand, 600 of that self-funding. Doubt Hutchinson's numbers are great either, but he hasn't held elected office in a dozen years or office period in 8.

http://talkbusiness.net/2013/07/campaign-contribution-reports-roll-in/

Hutchison raised $379K with $649K CoH, nowhere near Ross' numbers.

[RogueBeaver]

One AR journalist I read suggests that Hutchinson's using a low-burn strategy since he doesn't have a real primary to deal with. I just think he's a mediocre candidate, but Ross badly weakened himself with those backflips. A Ross advisor said on Twitter that he (Ross) "isn't too worried about liberals." Make of that what we will. If Halter does drop out that means all the action (presumptive Dem AG nominee Nate Bell is also from there) will be in CD4, which also happens to be the swing region. Vote splitting will make for hilarious maps. Who has longer coattails: the 4th's former or current congressman?

[RogueBeaver]

Liberal counterargument: Halter will exit soon, Hutchinson's bumping up against his ceiling since he's been around for decades, donors are also comfortable with Ross and if Hutchinson doesn't pick up it'll all snowball.

[Maxwell]

Arkansas Republicans have to be kicking themselves for running the Arkansas's John Raese.

[RogueBeaver]

There weren't any alternatives once Griffin and Womack declined. Griffin had originally been thinking about it but then got tapped for W&M. The state-level bench is still weak. At today's pundit confab, solid agreement that Halter should switch to CD2. Which doesn't make much sense since Griffin would beat him. Much better to try CD4 where 2/3 Pubs are weak and would get pulled in by PVI, but at least it'd be somewhat competitive.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's an idea of Hutchinson's political dinosaur status: profile of him from 1986 when he ran against David Pryor and lost by 25. Of course that's Bubba's heyday, a one-party state below the presidential level when the Hutchinsons were the ARGOP. 

[TX Conservative Dem]

Last I heard, Halter is still in the gubernatorial race, but it won't matter because whoever wins the Democratic nomination will lose to Hutchison in November 2014.

[RogueBeaver]

Halterite LG candidate Dianne Curry is thinking of switching to a run against Griffin, another exercise in futility.

[Conflicted Progressive]

Last I heard, Halter is still in the gubernatorial race, but it won't matter because whoever wins the Democratic nomination will lose to Hutchison in November 2014.

That's not really true if you've been reading any of the reporting.

Hutchison is old news and Ross is the type of candidate that the Dixiecratic and "Blue Dog" types would go for. We'll have to see how things play out but it seems that Ross has a fighting chance.

[RogueBeaver]

CP is right. Ross has a chance but I think in the end he loses because of his backflips and simple PVI.

[windjammer]

Is it possible that Hutchinsons is primaried?

[RogueBeaver]

Is it possible that Hutchinsons is primaried?

No, he'll win the primary easily even if Hutchinson isn't exactly a TP-friendly Pub.

[windjammer]

So I suppose he will win in a tight race. Halter is an ass hole, if he wins the primary, I will support his opponent.

[RogueBeaver]

Halter won't win the primary and might not even stay in the race, though for now I suspect he stays in. His supporters are OK with Ross if not terribly enthusiastic, from what I've read.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Ross flip-flopping by pulling a Romney will doom him no matter what happens. Either way, the GOP wins back the Arkansas governorship for the first time since 2002.

[RogueBeaver]

Tolbert notes that either way the Leg remains Pub, and that to cement their hold Pubs need to have better recruits. None of their state pols are particularly impressive IMO.

Darr will be discussing 2014 on local radio tomorrow. My guess is he either punts or announces he's not seeking reelection. Can't announce for the 4th till there's a vacancy.

[RogueBeaver]

As expected Darr punted by saying his decision depends on Cotton's, but said he hasn't yet moved into the 4th.