1980: Brown/Askew vs. Connally/Ford

[TDAS04]

In 1980, President Carter is challenged by Ted Kennedy for the Democratic nomination as IRL.  Kennedy begins a strong entry into the race and generates passionate enthusiasm, but sadly, just two weeks into his campaign, Ted meets the same tragic death that had been inflicted on John and Robert.  Governor Jerry Brown of California emerges as the alternative to Carter.  Brown exploits Carter's weaknesses more effectively than Kennedy had IRL, and narrowly wins the nomination.  Governor Reubin Askew of Florida is Brown's running mate.

For the Republicans, Reagan is expected to finally win the nomination. Unfortunately for him, not only does he stumble in Iowa, he does not recover in time for New Hampshire, where George H. W. Bush pulls off another stunning upset.  The Gipper is finished.  However, Bush is still perceived to be too moderate by Sunbelt Republicans, leaving an opening for John Connally of Texas.  Connally easily wins South Carolina, and ultimately edges out Bush to receive the nomination.  Former President Gerald Ford is Connally's running mate.

Who wins?  How does the electoral map turn out?

[lincolnwall]

Here's how I think it would go, assuming John B. Anderson isn't there as a strong independent. The GOP had a large advantage in 1980 no matter who was the candidate, but the Dems would do slightly better in this scenario.

Connally/Ford 337
Brown/Askew 201

[Michaelf7777777]

Would Anderson entering be enough to flip it to Brown?

[TDAS04]

I forgot about the possibility of Anderson entering the race.  Come to think about it, an Anderson candidacy may not have done as well as in the 1980 election IRL.  Anderson probably would have hurt Brown less than Carter IRL, since Anderson took the votes of many liberal Democrats who wanted Ted Kennedy.  They probably would have voted mostly for Brown, since Northern liberals would have preferred him to Carter.

Brown vs. Reagan would have been hard to predict.  It still would have been a tough year for Democrats, and the Democrats would have experienced a truly bruising primary.  On the other hand, the Republican nominee Connally could have been viewed as a particularly controversial candidate, even more than Reagan.  He was a conservative Democratic governor in Texas before serving as Treasury Secretary under Republican President Nixon.  Connally supported Nixon over McGovern, and soon became a Republican.  As the Republican nominee, Northern liberals may have been more motivated to vote Democratic, especially when Brown was the nominee instead of Carter.  However, the presence of Former President Ford may have provided the Republican candidate with more respect.  This race could have gone in any direction.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I forgot about the possibility of Anderson entering the race.  Come to think about it, an Anderson candidacy may not have done as well as in the 1980 election IRL.  Anderson probably would have hurt Brown less than Carter IRL, since Anderson took the votes of many liberal Democrats who wanted Ted Kennedy.  They probably would have voted mostly for Brown, since Northern liberals would have preferred him to Carter.

Actually no.  Anderson's 1980 votes came mainly from liberal Republicans who hadn't yet conceded that the Republican Party was taking an irrevocable shift to the right and hoped that by causing Reagan to be a second Goldwater, they could bring the part back from the conservative brink.  If Ford is on the ticket, it means that Connally has accepted the conditions that Reagan rejected that would effectively made Ford almost a co-president, so those voters would not have the same incentive to leave the Republican Party that they did in real life.

[TDAS04]

I forgot about the possibility of Anderson entering the race.  Come to think about it, an Anderson candidacy may not have done as well as in the 1980 election IRL.  Anderson probably would have hurt Brown less than Carter IRL, since Anderson took the votes of many liberal Democrats who wanted Ted Kennedy.  They probably would have voted mostly for Brown, since Northern liberals would have preferred him to Carter.

Actually no.  Anderson's 1980 votes came mainly from liberal Republicans who hadn't yet conceded that the Republican Party was taking an irrevocable shift to the right and hoped that by causing Reagan to be a second Goldwater, they could bring the part back from the conservative brink.  If Ford is on the ticket, it means that Connally has accepted the conditions that Reagan rejected that would effectively made Ford almost a co-president, so those voters would not have the same incentive to leave the Republican Party that they did in real life.

Yes, Anderson took votes away from both Carter and Reagan; liberal Republicans skeptical of Goldwater/Reagan-style conservatives and from other liberals who just did not like Carter.  In any case, both are reasons why Anderson would not do as well in this scenario than IRL.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yes, Anderson took votes away from both Carter and Reagan; liberal Republicans skeptical of Goldwater/Reagan-style conservatives and from other liberals who just did not like Carter.  In any case, both are reasons why Anderson would not do as well in this scenario than IRL.

Take a good look at where Anderson did well.  He did well in states that had significant numbers of liberal Republicans pre-1980.  He did poorly in states that had few liberal Republicans and yet did have significant numbers of liberal Democrats.  Anderson was a transitional figure in the movement of liberal Republicans into the Democratic coalition, not that he intended that to be the case.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

[badgate]

I wonder if Ford extorts the same kind of deal with Connally that he wanted with Reagan. If so, and it becomes public during the campaign, they'd be toast.