2012 and Hurricane Sandy

[Skill and Chance]

What would the 2012 election have looked like if the hurricane had played out differently?

Scenario 1: Sandy either never forms or goes well out to sea and is never a threat to the Northeast.  Everything else in the weeks leading up to the election stays the same.

Scenario 2: The hurricane hits as it did in real life, but Obama's response in the aftermath is perceived as poorly as Bush's response to Katrina.

Scenario 3: Sandy strikes NYC/New Jersey with the same intensity that Katrina struck New Orleans.  Obama and Christie are still seen as responding well, but the damage is much more severe: 30 ft storm surge in coastal NY and NJ, some Manhattan high-rises collapse during the storm, parts of NYC remain evacuated for months/years, etc.  Evacuees are allowed to vote wherever they are on election day.

[JRP1994]

Scenario 1:

Popular vote near a tie. Virginia almost as close as Florida in 2000. Obama wins 285-253

Scenario 2:

Romney pulls out a narrow win in the popular vote. Obama holds onto an INCREDIBLY narrow lead in Pennsylvania and Colorado, thus winning 272-266.

Massive storm creates a "rally-round the flag" effect - Obama's margins skyrocket. Wins by at least 5-6 points nationally. Holds NC and NE-2. Loses GA and MO by small margins.

[NHI]

1.

Obama: 281 (49.5%)

Romney: 257 (49.0%)

2.

Romney: 270 (49.1%)

Obama: 268 (48.9%)

3.

Obama: 374 (53.4%)

Romney: 164 (45.0%