Iceland parliamentary election
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politicus
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« Reply #75 on: April 16, 2013, 08:40:24 AM »
« edited: April 16, 2013, 09:00:17 AM by politicus »

This extract from an article by Icelandic journalist and development worker Stefan Jon Hafstein is from 2011, but is a good explanation of the basic dynamics in Icelandic politics.

(some of the leftists in here will probably say that this is the way the system is everywhere, but Iceland is, like Greenland, definitely clientilistic to a much greater degree than most of Western Europe)

"I thought for a long time that Iceland with its strong democracy and the newly independent states in Africa and elsewhere were incomparable. But the more stones were rolled over in the aftermath of the crash, and onwards to this day, while more and more disgusting things turned up, the more I thought of the similarities to the African situation.
 
Where do men empty banks? Where are the resources put into the hands of a few people? Where are the state delivered to a gang of "brothers"? Where are foolish contracts signed with foreign multinational corporations? Where was the Cold War used for enrichment of a few chosen ones?"
 
In the article Hafstein compares the family relations in Icelandic society - where men treat the resources of society as loot that chiefs hand out to those who show them loyalty - to African politics.
 
He doubts that the crisis can be attributed to neoliberalism, as is often heard in the debate:
 
"All though this period was characterized by a singleminded Liberalism, which is scary".

"Inequality was on a big increase in Iceland at the time, but it was not based on ideological liberal incentives in their own right".

"Still, three years after the collapse, the Icelandic Left fights Liberalism when they should focus on corruption. For it is the essence of the Icelandic way.

The Icelandic corruption works through the tribal system where political rulers treat resources and other kind of assets as loot which they distribute to those who show loyalty to them".

"It would appear that in our uniform and small nation there are ideal conditions to avoid the distress of many African nations - tribal division (tribalism). According to this tribe comes first, then village, place, relatives and friend groups. Abstract concepts such as "the public", "transparency", "administration" "decentralization" is a sign of a much more mature communities where you have put the regulation of relations in a political, economic, social and cultural framework. But in reality Iceland is much closer to the tribal community. This we see in the behavior of our political parties, with regional providers through the "local syndrome" whose loyalty to the herd comes before ideological conflict or merit. Loyalty is a prerequisite to get the benefits of output.
 
Local princes is clearly characteristic of such systems. Leadership depends on your allocation status (Minister, rural MP, chairman, administrator of grants from the Board of Regional Development or other administrators of agency funds). People need to be clients of the officials and instead of transparency "ships just sail as they please". The Chiefs do not want the public to have rights, but wants them to apply to them personally and have them assigned by grace. Valuables is distributed by Princes who reign by the power of "tribe". The less regulation and transparency, the better for a chiefs power. One of the key aspects of this is that power constraints are blurry and there are almost no penalties, so it is easy to take big risks occasionally. "

"Some progress in Icelandic society have occurred outside of the political system. The history of Iceland is not utter darkness and a number of positive developments have taken place. Take gender equality. Significant progress has been made on the ground in the last 20-30 years, powered by the demands of society and the enthusiasts amongst women. Raising awareness of violence, especially sexual violence, has occurred outside of the traditional administrative or judicial framework.
 
Homosexuals have done remarkable work to change society. On their own terms and on their own. Environmentalists have applied efficient means and been very successful in getting nature on the agenda. Alcoholics and drug patients have achieved remarkable success in improving the community by their organizations and have taught us what it's all about. Likewise, organizations such as Hugarafl and Straightforward. The cultural diversity that exists in Iceland is a good witness to the forces that can be unleashed. All these issues have sprung up out of our community outside the chilly political workshops.
 
These examples, and the work of the Constitutional Council, shows techniques that can be used systematically to open up society. Activate the power of the people. Fix the system so it will be a channel for democratic development. Set constraints for the rulers of the republic. Analyzing power of interests. The big challenge is nothing less than the democratization of Iceland.
 
All this aims to increase prosperity on a broad basis, not just in the form of growth. And greater equality. Balance is economic efficiency."

"The political "revolt from the middle" can isolate extreme hawks aiming to put the country at risk. Such a rebellions objective must be to ensure general prosperity and not give it to those who want to tear apart the peace for their own narrow interests of the moment. This is the democratic way out."

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politicus
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« Reply #76 on: April 16, 2013, 09:09:59 AM »

Are there leadership debates? If so are there certain leaders that can seek to gain from this?
Dunno. Couldnt find anything announced on the RUV webpage.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir from the Left Greens is pretty sharp and the SAP leader is dull, so she might swing some SD voters her way in a debate, I dont know if she can move someone across the aisle. Dont think it can change much between IP and PP, unless IP sends HBK who is a better debater than Bjarni Benediktsson, but I doubt they will do that now.

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politicus
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« Reply #77 on: April 16, 2013, 01:27:19 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2013, 04:07:12 PM by politicus »

The Election Commission has decided to remove all independents from the lists since Icelandic election law demands that all lists shall have twice as many candidates as the number of seats in the relevant constituency.
This decision doesn't apply to Sturla Jonsson since he actually has a full party list, despite being the only serious candidate on it.
Independents are obviously not happy about this.

Regarding the whole HBK vs. Bjarni Benediktsson saga:

She challenged him for the leadership at the party conference in 2011 and got 45%, she decided against a retry last year, which she no doubt would have won. Instead some unknown minister ran against Bjarni Benediktsson, but told the delegates to vote HBK even if she wasnt an official candidate. As a result BB got 78%, HBK 18,8 and the minister 1,6%. Pretty humiliating for BB. The poor guy has repeatedly been challenged at party conferences since he took over in 2009 and has often barely survived.
Basically he only became the leader because all the heavy weights were implicated in scandals related to the financial crash. The party right wing supports him to block HBK, but dont really consider him one of their own. 
In this years party primaries Benediktsson only got 54% of the votes in the South West constituency despite facing no serious opposition, which was obviously a humilation, while HBK got 74% in a very strong Reykjavik candidate field. 

He became even more unpopular after his decision to back the governments compromise with the Icesave creditors. It was later refused by voters in a referendum (and Iceland won the case at the EFTA court). BB was mercislessly criticized for this by former PM David Oddson at the normally IP friendly Morgunbladid.

A recent poll showed that 86% of IP voters prefer HBK to Benediktsson. She is especially popular among women, rurals and academcs, which are also the groups IP needs to do well among to have a chance. BB is only favoured among young men 18-25 and people making +250.000 dollars a year - basically the Libertarian/low tax crowd.

Voters see her as the one that can clean up the party and break the culture of nepotism and corruption. She was never personally involved in any of the financial crash-scandals, but while she was mayor of Reykjavik she ignored a pitch black corruption report about the public energy company and left it to her succesor, comedian Jon Gnarr from the Best Party, to clean up the mess, but voters seem not to hold this against her.

The long of the short is that IP has a leader that can be toppled by his deputy whenever she feels like it. Pretty bizarre situation. Benediktssons musings about how he might be stepping down was obviously an attempt to put pressure on his critics and force HBK out in the open, but it made him seem as desperate as he probably is.
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politicus
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« Reply #78 on: April 17, 2013, 03:03:03 AM »
« Edited: April 17, 2013, 03:08:56 AM by politicus »

Disclaimer: I said that MMR is considered the best pollster. Big mistake based on dated info. The idiots don't include seniors 67+ in their polls! Which mean they officially suck. Therefore "the traditional/responsible Left"=SAP, Left Greens and IP are underperforming in their polls. While Pirates and other protest parties are overpolling. But the difference is probably not as great as one might expect because the other polls show the same pattern.

The basic pattern regarding age is:

Over represented among voters 50+: IP, SPA, Left Greens

Over represented among 30-50: PP, these are the families with children heavily in debt and hoping for at miracle and therefore attracted to the whole "blackmail foreign creditors" scheme.

Over represented among 18-30: Pirates (no surprise there), Right Greens (Libertarians).

Over represented among 18-50 with no significant youth tilt: Bright Future (ex Best Party), Dawn, Democracy Watch.

The sharp divide around 50 is mostly due to the fact that Icelanders over 50 are generally not in debt since they paid out their house loans so they are more attracted to fiscal responsibility.
Also Left Greens are seen as a continuation of the good old Peoples Alliance, Icelands traditional anti-American Left Socialist party that was bigger than the SDs but joined SPA in 1999 (a move that wasn't popular among many older leftists).

Fun fact: With 15 parties, 11 of them having a full list, around 1.500 out of 320.000 Icelanders are running for office. That is almost 0,5% of the population. Roughly equal to 1,5 mio. Americans running for Congress!
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Zanas
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« Reply #79 on: April 17, 2013, 11:36:27 AM »
« Edited: April 17, 2013, 11:49:28 AM by Marcus Aurelius »

If I can read between the lines well, can I infer from your article on corruption comparing Iceland to African states and from the rest of our discussions that nothing's gonna change on that with PP in power ? I feel like they are the plain old agrarian party, and therefore quite connected with the provincial establishments. Is that true, or exactly the opposite ? Smiley






...and that, ladiesy and gentlemen, was my 1000th post. It's not a very good one actually, but still...
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politicus
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« Reply #80 on: April 17, 2013, 01:12:41 PM »

I think that's really hard to tell, but the old guard is unlikely to be back. If they get 30%+ more than half their MPs will be people that has never been in parliament before and their leadership is people in their late 30s.

A lot depends on who they are going to govern together with. There is no tradition for minority governments in Iceland and they are likely going to need partners.
IP/PP would be worst case scenario, because all the old networks would just reemerge, but this is also highly unlikely since PP hopes to replace IP as the dominant centre right party.
I wouldn't like a PP majority government either for the same reasons.
But Icelandic political observers seem to expect them to team up with 1 or 2 parties from the center-left: Bright Future, SDA and Left Greens. Basically the kind of government SDA declined back in 2009. This would be a strong government and one that would be able to change things. Maybe even get the constitution ratified, just without the full proportionality part. EU membership would obviously be off the table with a PP victory, so that shouldn't pose a problem.

Any break with the past must come from the centre-right, or at least include part of the centre-right. Iceland is structurally not a left wing country, and it isn't realistic that a left wing government can emerge, unless under extreme conditions as in 2009.
So basically the best hope is a strong reformer from the centre-right. I would generally trust HBK more than Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson from PP, but he is kind of a tabula rasa. He seems calm, level headed, determined etc., but I think few people know who he really is and how he is going to govern. But an alliance with the centre-left would basically tie him to a reform course.

PPs background is different from IPs because they are strongest in Eastern and Northern Iceland where the land distribution is a lot more equal than in the SW and where there is a strong coop movement (because it was furthest from the merchants and shops in Reykjavik), so local "chiefs" - to use Hafsteins expression - are more community leaders, than IP "chiefs", who are often wealthy, they are obviously still patrons but its still a more democratic tradition. I would also generally say that the problems in rural Iceland is more nepotism and pork barrelling, while corruption is more tied to the Reykjavik elite.

If you want to be negative about SDG his dad made his money in the defence industry which means he needed political patronage. But then again he is not his dad.

Daddy's money came from Kögun. A consulting and software company established by the Foreign Ministry to participate in the construction of the Icelandic air defense system, the IADS-radar system, which was built up by NATO. IADS stands for Iceland Air Defense System. The system was implemented in 1994. Kögun was the subcontractor in charge of the organizing and  maintenance and development of the software for IADS.

The CEO of the company was SDGs father Gunnlaugur Sigmundsson, who had formerly worked in the World Bank. In 1993 the mostly public development association behind the company sold its stake in the company to the company itself and its employees, with managemet getting the most. In 1996 the company was listed on the OTC market, but in 2000 its shares were listed on the Icelandic Stock Exchange. During the first four months of 1997 it rose about 277 percent and had risen by 400 percent from its first introduction. Hence the CEO became a wealthy man.

So SDG has an elite/fat cat background, but he is personally clean and maybe he is a reformer. Time will show.
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politicus
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« Reply #81 on: April 17, 2013, 06:17:05 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2013, 04:34:15 AM by politicus »

IP is gaining in the first poll post Benediktssons "I might resign" interview, which really surprises me, but apparently his gamble paid of. If you can trust the poll. Its conducted by Fréttablaðið and a private TV channel. Same guys that had the outlier with 40%+ PP support.

Bright Future 6,5%
Progressive Party 30,3%
Independence Party 26,9%
SDA 13,7%
Left Greens 7,9%
Right Greens 0.8 %
Households Party 2,4%
Democracy Watch 1,7%
Dawn 3,0%
Pirates 5.6%
 

Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson, a professor of political science, says "Bjarni Benediktsson openness last weekend has clearly been effective". He is also stating the obvious, that the electorate is still highly volatil, but that voters are primarily moving between PP and IP and not across the blocs.

The polls response rate was 63.2 percent. Participants were selected by random sampling from the National Registry. Respondents were divided evenly by gender and relatively by residence and age (so no omitting elderly people).
But then the BS starts. They start out asking: Which list would you vote for if the parliamentary elections was held today? If they do not receive a specific answer to the question they ask: Which list is you most likely to prefer? If the respondent still dont answer they finally ask: Is it likely that you would vote for the Independence Party or any other list?

This obviously increases the IP share artificially.  

I dont know, apparently both the major Icelandic pollsters suck. One excludes pensioners and the other asks specifically if people wanna vote IP. I guess we will have to wait for Gallup.

The poll confirms the urban/rural basic pattern:

SDA, Bright Future and Pirates get their votes in Greater Reykjavik
PP is still a provincial party
IP is doing slighly better in the urban areas than the country. Inly Left Greens have a fairly equal representation. Their 5 seats would go to 5 different constituencies.
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politicus
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« Reply #82 on: April 17, 2013, 07:12:58 PM »

The Right Greens seem to be trying a bit of xenophobia. It didnt work for their fellow "Libertarians" in The Liberal Party last time, but who knows, maybe Iceland is ready for it now.
Their chairman Franklin Gudmundur Jonsson said in a TV interview that the Schengen agreement is not efficient and that "undesirables are coming into Iceland". When he was asked to elaborate he said that the problem was connected to the increasing crime rates in the country and that criminal foreigners and "individuals of colour" are entering the country.

"I just want to check if it pays off for us to stay in Schengen or not. It's that simple".
"Is undesirable people coming into the country? Yes - I'd like to stop it".











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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #83 on: April 17, 2013, 08:03:54 PM »

What does Iceland have in the way of immigrants/minorities?
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politicus
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« Reply #84 on: April 18, 2013, 03:59:47 AM »

Until the 90s Iceland was extremely homogenous with about 1,5% foreign born, mainly from mainland Scandinavia. Now the relative size of it minority population is about equal to the other Nordic countries, but the distribution is different. Its mainly Eastern Europeans, no old people and few children.

From 1996 to 2008 immigrants share of the population increased from 1.8% to 8%, this has dropped to around 7% since but seems stable now, so there are around 22-23.000 immigrants. Many of the Poles and Lithuanians that stayed on after the crash are bringing their families now. They still have less than 2.000 second generation immigrants because its been such a recent phenomenon.

In 2008 68% came from "Europe outside the Nordic countries" and 7% from Scandinavia. A third of all immigrants in Iceland are born in Poland. Other large (relatively speaking) immigrant groups are Philippines 1,200 and Lithuanians 1,200. Around 1.800 from the Nordic countries. They also have a couple of thousand refugees incl. some Africans. 
I dont know about recent immigration patterns apart from the fact that the Polish share has dropped.

The SDA-LG government has established various cultural centers, language programmes etc -  they call it "the infrastructure for a multicultural society".
There is no real anti-immigration tradition, some guys tried to establish a Nationalist Party around 2008, but it never got of the ground.
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politicus
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« Reply #85 on: April 18, 2013, 07:45:25 AM »

A poll about who voters think would be the best Prime Minister:

Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (PP) 33,9%
Bjarni Benediktsson (IP) 19,8%
Katrín Jakobsdóttir (Left Greens) 13,3%
Árna Pál Árnason (SDA) 10,4%
Someone else 22,6%

So SDG has slightly more support than his party, BB less support, but not a lot. On the left side Arnason is clearly less popular than his party and also clearly behind Jakobsdottir who has significantly more support than her party, but is far from the "Queen of the Left" level she used to be at. 22,6% preferring someone else is a high number, but most of them probably wants Hanna Birna Kristjansdottir.

With IP campaigning hard on how a vote for PP is a vote for another leftist government, it is definitely an advantage for PP that so many centre-right voters wants SDG as Prime Minister.
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Zanas
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« Reply #86 on: April 18, 2013, 09:37:45 AM »

Wow I didn't Katrin was so popular. Why is she more popular that Left-Green vote share would indicate ?

Oh, and since she seems to be an expert on Icelandic author Arnaldur, you can all read his novel "Arctic Chill", which describes the status of immigration in Iceland quite well. At least it gave me a pretty good indication.
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politicus
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« Reply #87 on: April 18, 2013, 10:12:57 AM »

Wow I didn't Katrin was so popular. Why is she more popular that Left-Green vote share would indicate ?
She is by far the most charismatic left wing politician in Iceland, but this is actually quite low for her - resembling the decline of the party. All that fiscal responsibility doesn't appeal to young people. I wouldn't be surprised if they were left with the highest average age of all parties. Basically being left with those born 1945-60, who were young in the late 60s and 70s.

AI is a good writer, but Arctic Chill gives a very dark picture, too dark IMO, but then again whats a crime story without darkness and despair?
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Hifly
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« Reply #88 on: April 18, 2013, 02:19:52 PM »

Two new polls out, both confirming a rise in support for the IP!

Firstly, MMR shows the IP leading for the first time since mid-March:

Independence Party: 27.5%
Progressive Party: 25.6%
Social Democrats: 13.5%
Bright Future: 8.3%
Left-Green: 8.1%
Pirates: 6.7%

Gallup shows a 2.6% lead for the Progressives, a significant decline from their last poll last week. All in all Benediktsson's decision seems to have payed off.
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« Reply #89 on: April 18, 2013, 02:44:46 PM »

I assume that such a result would still result in a Progressive Party government?
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politicus
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« Reply #90 on: April 18, 2013, 03:00:20 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2013, 03:16:19 PM by politicus »

Two new polls out, both confirming a rise in support for the IP!

Firstly, MMR shows the IP leading for the first time since mid-March:

I put Gallup in the second row for comparison

Independence Party: 27.5% 24,1%
Progressive Party: 25.6% 26,7%
Social Democrats: 13.5% 15,2%
Bright Future: 8.3% 8,0%
Left-Green: 8.1% 8,8%
Pirates: 6.7% 8,4%

Gallup shows a 2.6% lead for the Progressives, a significant decline from their last poll last week. All in all Benediktsson's decision seems to have payed off.

It clearly hasn't harmed them, but I think its more likely that it is their "PP will form another left wing government" line of attack that's beginning to work.

Gallup has better numbers for the government, as one would expect from a poll that includes pensioners, but its strange that IP is lower and Pirates are higher than in MMR, it should be the other way around. There is no way old people are voting Pirates in disproportionate numbers! But there is always statistical uncertainty, so one shouldn't read too much into those differences.

Nevertheless I tend to trust Gallup more, they seem to have a normal methodology.

Anyway the tendency is pretty clear. Government and IP up, PP down.

Gallup gives PP 20, IP 17, SDA 10,  Left Greens 6, Pirates 5 and Bright Future 5. Thats a 35 seat majority for a centrist PP, BF, SDA government.  
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politicus
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« Reply #91 on: April 19, 2013, 01:14:06 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2013, 01:22:19 AM by politicus »

Okay, we are getting more polling now. I promise not to clutter the board by posting every one of them, but this is a quality one from the Social Science Research Institute for Morgunbladid and it confirms Gallup apart from SDA not gaining in this one.

Independence Party 24.4% - up 5.5 percentage points from their last survey.
Progressive Party 28.1%.
 
IP is getting their voters back. In the last survey 29.2% of respondents who voted for the Independence Party in 2009 intend to vote for the Progressive Party, but now this proportion has dropped to 18.4%. The proportion of IP voters staying loyal to the party has increased from 56.2% in the last survey to 69.1% now. The chickens are coming home to roast Tongue
SDA is stable in this one, but Left Greens is up by 0,5%.
 
SDA 12.2%
Left Greens 9.3%
Bright Future 7.4% (down from 10,9% in their last poll)
Pirates 6.3%
Democracy Watch 3.3%
Dawn 3%
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politicus
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« Reply #92 on: April 19, 2013, 04:55:26 AM »

Lars Christensen, head of the Research Departemet at Denmarks biggest bank Danske Bank has indirectly criticized PP in an interview with Bloomberg news agency, its quoted by Morgunbladid and Fréttablaðið and making its way around IP friendly news media in Iceland.

Christensen was co-author of the harshly critical report "Iceland, Geyser crisis" in 2006 and became quite famous as an "Iceland-basher" back then.
 
"If the political parties take advantage of the failed banks assets to pay for their election promises it will lead to economic crisis in Iceland. By confiscating the assets of the old banks, Iceland will close the door to outside investment and Iceland's possibilities to pick up additional credit on the international markets".
 
"It is important to reduce household debt, but using assets from failed banks that are owned by the claimants is not the right way. Many claimants are investors who are interested in investing further in Iceland, for example the Nordic pension funds. If their assets are confiscated then international investors will not forget this".

He has obviously got some points, its not easy for a small nation to take on the international capital markets and get away with it.

The thing is whether Chinese and Korean investors, who are generally quite interested in the North Atlantic economies, will be influenced by a "confiscation" of mainly Western European assets? Maybe they will seize the investment opportunities in Iceland anyway.

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politicus
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« Reply #93 on: April 19, 2013, 10:06:38 AM »

I assume that such a result would still result in a Progressive Party government?
Yes, the only thing that's 99,9% certain at the moment is that PP will be part of the government
and IMO its also 80-85% certain that they will lead it. The big questions are who they will govern together with and whether they are going to try putting pressure on the creditors or not + what happens to the constitution bill (it takes 22 seats to block it - how close can IP get?).

PP is the party in the middle and don't want to go back to their old role as junior partner. So an IP led government would only happen if IP became significantly bigger than PP and there wasn't any centrist majority. Also I am not even sure Benediktsson really would like to be Prime Minister given his precarious situation within the party.

You would need something like this for an IP led government:

Independence Party: 30.5%
Progressive Party: 22.6%
Social Democrats: 13.5%
Bright Future: 8.3%
Left-Green: 8.1%
Pirates: 6.7%

Even in this case PP could block Benediktsson by simply saying "no". If the parties cant agree the President gets to chose a Prime Minister. Grimson is an old leftist and would pick SDG over Benediktsson, as more parties could accept SDG.
This scenario has only happened once (in 1942), but it gives PP a lot of bargaining power, that it exists. Even if they probably wouldn't want to use it since it would make a lot of centre-right voters mad.
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politicus
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« Reply #94 on: April 19, 2013, 11:19:58 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2013, 12:44:39 PM by politicus »

EU has been virtually absent from the campaign, but its actually one of the few topics where the government is in line with the voters, according to a Vísir poll.
Even if countless polls have shown that Icelanders dont want to join the EU, they want to vote about it anyway. Probably due to a feeling of being ignored by their leaders.

A. Finish the negotations and hold a referendum (SDA, LG, BF) 55%
B. Redraw the membership application (IP and PP) 34%
C. Put the negotiations on hold and hold a referendum about whether they should be resumed 11%
 
Generally more men prefer to finish what they started, while women are more likely to prefer a clean break. The only constituency with a majority for ending the negotiations right away is the rural NW.

Option A gets:

SDA 92% (no surprise there)
Bright Future 87%
LG 72% (it is the party line, but a bit higher than I would have expected)
Pirates 58%

But even on the right wing its a minority that prefer the official party line of just walking away.

PP: 40% for finishing, which is pretty high, while 48% wants to shut the door right away, 12% for "making everything as complicated as possible"
IP: 38% for finishing, 46% for withdrawing the application, 16% for "making everything as complicated as possible"

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« Reply #95 on: April 19, 2013, 11:53:04 AM »

What's actually green about the "Right Greens", other than their party colour?
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politicus
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« Reply #96 on: April 19, 2013, 01:04:26 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2013, 01:22:43 PM by politicus »

What's actually green about the "Right Greens", other than their party colour?
Not much it seems. A bit of nature conservation, but it looks like a gimmick. Maybe something to sweeten their cut taxes/foreigners and EU are bad-package to more moderate voters.

As you can see its mostly platitudes:

"The party is a right-green party. This reflects respect of and concern for the environment and the need for intelligent and practical utilization of natural resources based upon green solutions. The regulatory framework is already stringent, but contains holes to fill and knots to untie. The party wants to make people in general—including sectors such as agriculture, tourism, energy companies and the fisheries, all of which depend their existence on nature and its resources—to be more aware of the importance of the well being of the environment and their responsibility towards it. The party wants to provide incentives, help and assistance not only to protect the environment, but also to service it".

They do have a few concrete suggestions:

"This may for instance be done by allowing the collection of entrance fees at tourist sites to provide necessary funds for upkeep; by providing incentives and help to landowners and farmers for increased land reclamation and forestry, while grazing restrictions on livestock need to be enforced. Our new fisheries policy will ensure that there is no more undesired catch dumping at sea. Where there is a carrot there must also be a stick. More and tougher disciplinary tools should also be provided to keep these important matters in check".  
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politicus
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« Reply #97 on: April 20, 2013, 04:55:35 AM »
« Edited: April 20, 2013, 01:14:04 PM by politicus »

Going into the final week it may be time to look at the possible governments:

All the polls indicate that PP will have to be part of a government. PPs main goals are:

1. To marginalize IP and become the "national party of Iceland".
2. To keep Iceland out of the EU.
3. To solve the crisis.

It may be a bit cynical to put them in this order, but its probably also close to the truth.

In order to achieve goal no. 1 they have to honour (at least partly) their campaign pledge about writing off 20% of all price-indexed household mortgages by forcing the foreign claim holders of the defaulted banks to pay for this write down against being allowed to move the money they have left outside of the Icelandic economy. If they cant, voters will punish them next time.

The Icelandic press operates with just three basic scenarios:

1. IP - PP under PP leadership.
2. IP - PP under IP leadership
3. The centrist option PP - SDA - BF

In principle PP could also establish a minority government with the backing of other non-IP parties, but since Iceland has no tradition for this and nobody wants a weak government during a crisis, this is apparently of the table.

Option 1. This is OK for PP, since they are the big brother, but not ideal.  

Pros:
 
- Stops all talks with the EU.

- Kills the constitution (which many rural and conservative PPs don't like).

- Possible "Prime Minister effect" gains next time at the expense of IP.

- Secures a pro-business, pro development/extraction policy.

Cons:

- IP is pro foreign investment and don't want to put pressure on the creditors.

- In order to profile their party IPs right wing will keep demanding tax cuts, this will scare welfare loving centrist voters away next time.


Option 2: Worst case. Sending them right back into their traditional junior partner role.

Pros:

- Stops all talks with the EU.

- Kills the constitution.

- Secures a pro-business, pro development/extraction policy.

Cons:

- Benediktsson will be an extremely weak PM and will probably soon be replaced by HBK, who can then crush the right wing and position herself as an Icelandic Frederik Reinfeldt, which would marginalize PP.

- In this scenario IP is even less likely to put pressure on the creditors.


Option 3: Best realistic option.

Pros:

- Establish PP as the unifier in Icelandic politics and marginalizes IP on the right wing.
 
- No unpopular welfare cuts (at least not the really hard ones).

- Secures a strong and efficient government.

- Will likely secure a "moderate" constitution without full proportionality and with a watered down clause about public ownership to resources. Most voters will be satisfied with this.

Cons:
 
- Getting in bed with the EU-lovers forces them to finish the negotiations. Since they can be pretty sure to win a referendum on EU, this might not be such a big problem - but they still run the risk of losing and a government campaigning both for and against EU would be a bit weird.
 
- Super serious and investor friendly SDA wont want to pressure the creditors, much too risky, but maybe they can be pressured into accepting a less ambitious version of "the plan".
 
- BFs main leader is Guðmundur Steingrímsson, a former PP politician whose dad and granddad where both PP chairmen and Prime Ministers, so they would have to work with a renegade from the PP royalty.  

Option 4: PP - LG - SDA  

This is not as unrealistic as one might think. Seen from a PP perspective the Left Greens are fellow Euro-sceptics and as leftists they are more likely to agree to squeezing the creditors to help "ordinary families". Since the big development projects with river pollution and flooding of highland areas have already been implemented, they could likely accept a green environmental policy for a while. But it would write the IP attack adds for next time in advance and IP would be practically guaranteed to win the next election. IMO they would only consider this if the  alternative was an IP-PP government under IP leadership.
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politicus
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« Reply #98 on: April 20, 2013, 10:12:05 AM »
« Edited: April 21, 2013, 10:01:32 AM by politicus »

Things are starting to heath up in the cold north. At a meeting at Grand Hotel in Reykjavik  SDG said that the rest of the election campaign will be ugly and that his opponents will use personal attacks.



"Our opponents, both right and left, do not seem to see any other way than to attack the Progressive Party, and not on an objective basis. Most other parties have acknowledged in recent weeks that the Progressive Party's methods are feasible. But despite that they have not the courage to take on our project instead they attack us in a personal way".

He warned that if IP gets any bigger there is a "clear risk" of a government of Social Democrats and the Independence Party and that it is important for Iceland to get "a government that dares".

So now he is saying that a vote on IP is a vote for a left wing government! (well kinda...)

"There is an obvious risk that this will lead to a government of the "index parties" the Social Democrats and the Independence Party. A government that will safeguard indexation and secure that Icelandic home owners do not get a correction of their loans after the collapse".

"I fear leniency against creditors with the possible control of the Independence Party and the Alliance (SDA)".

"The government is willing to submit to demands of foreign creditors, but is not willing to stand up for local homes. I can not believe that Iceland wants such a government, I believe that Iceland wants a government that dares."
 
PPs suggestions gets a lot of criticism for being unrealistic and an unfair benefit to those with mortgages (townies, middle aged, established) and not all the young, elderly and rurals who are also in financial distress.

In the same article SDAs cashier says that the general debt forgiveness on mortgages is "unsystematic" and "unfair". "75% of the cancellations goes to households that do not need it. Two thirds of those in distress, however, would remain in trouble".

Well, probably just rhetoric. I cant see an SDA - IP alliance unless there is some sort of internal coup inside IP where the moderates takes charge - preferably pro-EU moderates - and that seems unrealistic. But with PP attacking left and right its not getting easier to form a government.

SDG has also just announced, that he has bought a place in the back and beyond of rural Eastern Iceland and changed his address to it. This will go down well with the party faithfull, but he will probably stay in his Reykjavik flat most of the time.

EDIT: It turns out he just changed his address to his supporter Jónas Guðmundssons farm Hrafnabjörg to reside in the North East constituency - PPs best.
 
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politicus
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« Reply #99 on: April 20, 2013, 05:16:09 PM »

The whole "personal attack" thing is because several government politicians have accused SDG of not having the DPhil in economics and political science from Oxford University he claims. He has refused to allow the media to check it. The deputy from PP said on TV that PP will not negotiate with SDA and Left Greens because of "the vicious personal attacks on SDG", but SDG later denied this, saying PP needs to keep their options open after the election.
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