Iceland parliamentary election

[Franzl]

When do polls close Central European Time?

[politicus]

11 PM, its 10PM GMT and 9PM local time.

[ObserverIE]

11 PM, its 10PM GMT and 9PM local time.

<Pedantry>2100 GMT (Iceland doesn't operate summer time)</Pedantry>

[politicus]

BBC says 22.00 GMT.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22320282

Iceland is GMT without DST so they close at 9PM in Iceland.

[politicus]

At 6PM 53.4% had in the Southwest, down from 59.1% in 2009, so it still looks like a lower participation rate, but the difference is not as great as in the morning.

[politicus]

At the moment it looks like participation will be lower than in 2009 in 5 out of 6 constituencies, but higher in NE which is really good news for PP.

There has been seriously bad weather in Iceland and the small rural roads are not going to be open in the evening (its Saturday and there is no one to keep them open).

Because of the weather it will take extra time to collect the rural votes and the final result is likely to be delayed until Sunday afternoon. But there should be a prognosis right after the polls close, because the small isolated places doesn't affect the overall result much.

14 procent have voted before election day, that's 34 051 - 4 457of which are from abroad. The high number of mailed in votes also complicates the counting since they have to be distributed to the relevant constituencies and checked for double voting.

[politicus]

According to Swedish journalist Anders Svensson, who lives in Iceland and has a blog about the country, the polls close at 10PM Icelandic time and 12PM Swedish time (ie. Central European time), this means 11PM GMT with DST (UK time).

So now I don't know I was certain BBC was right, but maybe the BBC simply forgot that Iceland doesn't have DST?

Confirmed. BBC is wrong.

First prognosis at 11.15PM GMT with DST - 00.15 CET with DST. Final result should be announced around seven hours later, the bad weather has hit Iceland later than expected, so that should speed things up.

[politicus]

Icelands national TV station RUV has this exit poll.

IP 27,9
PP 24,5
BF 6,7
SDA 14,6
LG 10,0
Pirates 5,5

Democracy Watch 2,8
Right Greens 2,6
Dawn 2,6
Households Party 1,3%
Rainbow 0,5

So only six parties, as expected, and the Pirates may be cheated out of representation with a strong PP showing in rural constituencies, this effect will probably also make PP as big as IP with this difference.

[politicus]

With 9,5% counted its:
 
IP 26,1%
PP 24,5%
SDA 12,4%
LG 9,5%
BF 7,0%
Pirates 6,4%
Dawn 4,6%
Households Party 4,5%
Democracy Watch 2,8%
Right Greens 1,5%
 

[politicus]

Its interesting that both Dawn and the Households Party are so close to the threshold in these first numbers, but it is probably a skewed sample.

83,3% voted, so the fear of a very low turnout was unfounded.

[njwes]

politicus thanks for all the work you've done in this thread!

What's the source you're using to see the electoral returns?

[politicus]

politicus thanks for all the work you've done in this thread!

What's the source you're using to see the electoral returns?

The newspaper Morgunbladid. The numbers are at 15,6% at the moment.

http://www.mbl.is/frettir/

The exit poll is at www.ruv.is

[politicus]

At 17,1% counted the seat distribution is:

IP 19
PP 17
SDA 9
LG 9
BF 5
Pirates 4

So there is no centrist PP-SDA-BF majority. I hope this changes.

Surprisingly IP doesnt need levelling seats, while PP does. This is contrary to what everyone had expected.

Well at 31% the pirates are out, so the centrist majority is back, but IP just needs one more to block the constitution.

IP 21
PP 18
SDA 10
LG 8
BF 6

[njwes]

politicus thanks for all the work you've done in this thread!

What's the source you're using to see the electoral returns?

The newspaper Morgunbladid. The numbers are at 15,6% at the moment.

Thanks!

[MaxQue]

At 57.8%, the seat distribution is the same than at 31%

[Benj]

At 71.9%, PP has gained a seat from IP, so the distribution is now:

IP 20
PP 19
SDA 10
LG 8
BF 6

Looks solid for a PP-SDA-BF coalition at this point.

[MaxQue]

At 71.9%, PP has gained a seat from IP, so the distribution is now:

IP 20
PP 19
SDA 10
LG 8
BF 6

Looks solid for a PP-SDA-BF coalition at this point.

Should improve for PP, worsen for the left, given the outstanding areas.

Counted votes by area:
Reykjavik North: 96% (IP leads PP 24-17)
Reykjavik South: 98% (IP leads PP 27-17)
Southwest: 53% (IP leads PP 32-22)
Northwest: 55% (PP leads IP 36-24)
Northeast: 57% (PP leads IP 33-22)
South: 82% (PP leads IP 35-28)

[politicus]

Result at 80,6%

IP 26,3      20 (18+2)
PP 24,5     19 (19+0)
SDA 12,9   10  (8+2)
LG 11,3      8  (6+2)
BF 8,4         6  (3+3)
Pirates 5,1  0

Households Party 3,1
Dawn  3,0
Democracy Watch 2,5
Right Greens 1,7
Rainbow 1,1

Humanists 0,1
People Front of Iceland 0,1
Rural Party 0,1
Sturla Jonsson 0,1

Its the first time since 1931 that the two major Icelandic left wing parties get below 25% combined.

[politicus]

I think this result  dooms the constitution bill. IP only need 3 extra votes to block it, and there will always be a couple of PP right wingers or fishing lobby stooges willing to join them, even if SDG is willing to compromise with the left.

[politicus]

Result at 95,0%

IP 26,7      19 (18+1)
PP 24,3     19 (19+0)
SDA 12,9    9  (8+1)
LG 10,9       7 (6+1)
BF 8,4         6  (3+3)
Pirates 5,1  3  (0+3)

[MaxQue]

I see than Murphy's Law has striken again.

[MaxQue]

Counted votes by area:
Reykjavik North: 97% (IP leads PP 23-16)
Reykjavik South: 98% (IP leads PP 27-17)
Southwest: 98% (IP leads PP 31-22)
Northwest: 68% (PP leads IP 37-24)
Northeast: 98% (PP leads IP 35-23)
South: 97% (PP leads IP 35-28)

[politicus]

Okay, thats isolated West Fiord Areas missing, this might take some time.

[MaxQue]

Okay, thats isolated West Fiord Areas missing, this might take some time.

Given than they are isolated, it's important to wait them. I would suppose isolated areas to have lopsided results. I also suppose than Pirates aren't popular there, so, they are at risk of falling under threshold.

[politicus]

Result at 97,7%

IP 26,7      19 (18+1)
PP 24,4     19 (19+0)
SDA 12,9    9  (8+1)
LG 10,9       7 (6+1)
BF 8,2         6  (3+3)
Pirates 5,1  3  (0+3)