Ecuadorian general election, 2013

[Sir John Johns]

OK. I prefer now return to what I have begin to write (I have too much things to say about this campaign).

The parties that supported Lasso's candidacy.

The Democratic Left (ID) suffered heavy losses in the 2006 legislative election and won only two seats (out of 130) in the National Constituent Assembly. By that time, the party had abandoned any clear ideology and was plagued by personal rivalries as the historical leader Rodrigo Borja retired from public life. Many members fled the party joined either PAIS. The mayor of Quito, Paco Moncayo, leave also the ID and set up his party, the Municipalist Movement for the National Integrity (MMIN), a vaguely center-left party made up of numerous mayors. In 2009, the only ID deputy elected was Andrés Páez. This year, he seek reelection on the CREO banner in Pichincha 1st constituency. The ID failed to renew its registration as two persons are both claiming being the legitimate president of the party. This is the first legislative election since the return of democracy without the ID. I must also mentioned that this is also the first election without the DP (now re-branded as the Christian Democratic Union, UDC), which failed to elect a single deputy since 2007. The party also lost registration as it failed to collect the required number of signatures.

Madera de Guerrero (MG) is a conservative provincial party of the Guayas. It was founded around 2007, after the electoral debacle of the PSC. Its leader is Jaime Nebot, who was fed up with Febres Cordero and his self-destruction strategy. Nebot chose to definitively renounce to national ambitions and to concentrate on his reelection as mayor of Guayaquil. He was soon joined by Cynthia Viteri. Madera de Guerrero emphasized the supposed specific Guayaquil's spirit and advocated a greater decentralization with sometimes separatist undertones. It's now the political arm of the Guayaquil's big business. Nebot is a very popular mayor and won reelection in a landslide in 2009 (68.44% against 29.01 for the PAIS candidate; note that many voters chose to vote for Correa in the presidential election and for Nebot in the concurrently held municipal election). Madera de Guerrero is the third largest party in the current National Assembly. In 2009, it reluctantly endorsed Álvaro Noboa. This year, it supported enthusiastically Guillermo Lasso and made a deal with CREO: CREO doesn't field candidates in the Guayas province.

The Social Christian Party (PSC) is now fighting for its survival. The party was hurt by the departure of Nebot and by the death of Febres Cordero in 2008. The PSC is now turning into a satellite of the MG as the party is nearly dead outside the province of Guayas and only managed to get deputies in that last province thanks to its agreement with the MG (as in 2009, the PSC and the MG ran a joint list; PSC ran candidates for national deputies, and CREO for provincial deputies. The party was even more weakened by the departure of Manabí bigwig Leonardo Viteri (who founded the MACHETE party) and other local caciques. It also run against CREO in some provinces and in the national deputies' race, which diminished its chance to get deputies elected outside the Guayas. Top MG-PSC candidates for national deputies are Cynthia Viteri and former TV journalist Carlos Vera, a vocal opponent to Correa which made also headlines for homophobic statements.

Álvaro Noboa
For the fifth time, the allegedly richest man in Ecuador ran for the presidential election. After his defeat in the 2006 presidential election, he failed to prevent Correa from summon a Constituent Assembly. He was elected deputy but couldn't take his seat as he refused to release his tax return. In the same election, the PRIAN was the big loser as its support totally collapsed (few months after its historic first place). Anyway, Noboa ran once more in 2009. By this time he was widely seen as an ineffective opponent to Correa and as an unelectable loser. He finished in a poor third place with only 11.41%, far behind Correa (51.99%), and Gutiérrez (28.24%).

There was big speculation over a fifth candidacy of Alvarito, as the banana tycoon was in trouble with the Ecuadorian IRS (headed by the hilariously named Carlos Marx Carrasco) and owed no less than $ 99,264,354 in back taxes. Noboa denounced the OAS “political persecution” by the IRS. In last October, he went to Miami and allegations of a possible exile surfaced. However, he returned to Ecuador, said that its own polls gave him as the only candidate who could force Correa into a run-off, and asked Lasso and Gutiérrez to withdrew their candidacy. Simultaneously, he tried to negotiate with the two other right-wing candidates. However, Lasso didn't want to deal with Noboa, while Gutiérrez mostly wanted to draft Alvarito's wife as his running-mate. Noboa refused as he absolutely desired to be the candidate for president and the talks quickly collapsed.

So Alvarito goes for an historical debacle. This time, he presented himself as a “center-left” politician and asked a Pachakutik member, Lourdes Tibán to be his running-mate. Tibán was apparently very surprised by this offer and rejected its (she is the Pachakutik-MPD top candidate for national deputies' election). As in 2009, Alvarito chose his own wife, Anabella Azin, as his running-mate. His platform is very vague and he promised to lower the retirement age, to keep Correa's social programs, and to reduce taxes for everybody (especially the income tax). He also said he will contact Rudolph Giuliani to fight crime in Ecuador (seriously) and tried to politically use the victory of the Barcelona Sporting Club (a soccer club of Guayaquil headed by Luis Noboa, Alvarito's own nephew) in the national championship.

Since June 2012, the PRIAN has begun to disintegrate. 5 deputies out of 7 left the party in protest of Noboa's autocratic style. The defectors seek reelection either with CREO, either with the PSP. PRIAN's top candidate in the election of national deputies is Silka Sánchez, a former Guayas deputy who is also the lawyer of Bananera Noboa (one of the numerous business of Alvarito). In second and third positions on the national list are respectively Roberto Ponce Noboa (Alvarito's cousin) and Eleana Azín Arce (Alvarito's sister-in-law). Also, Silka Sánchez managed to place his cousin Wilson Sánchez Zúñiga on the list. Noboa is supported by the living dead CFP and other tiny parties which nobody cares about.

Lucio Gutiérrez

Gutiérrez's PSP made a surprising good result in the 2006 elections. While it suffered from the huge popularity of Rafael Correa, it managed to appear as the most organized and the most efficient opposition party. In the 2007 election for Constituent Assembly, it managed to limit damage and won 19 deputies out of 130, becoming the largest opposition party. Lucio Gutiérrez appeared as a vocal and staunch opponent of Correa and criticized him over his supposed links with the Colombian FARC. In 2009, thanks to the absence of a candidate from the traditional right and to the hopelessness of Noboa, he won a strong 28.24% and has promising results in the Costa (29.3% in Manabí, 29.16% in Guayas) while progressing in the Sierra's poor areas and keeping his stranglehold on the Amazonian province (71.01% in Napo, 64.37% in Orellana, 56.22 in Pastaza). In the 2009 legislative election, the PSP kept its status of first opposition party with 19 deputies out of 124.

However, Gutiérrez seems now to have some problems. First, four deputies defected (three of them joined PAIS) which is the sign that the PSP, while considered as the best organized and structured Ecuadorian party, is probably weaker than currently assumed. Secondly, the Evangelical Indigenous Federation (FEINE) chose this time to not support Gutiérrez's candidacy. This could hurt him in the evangelical areas of the Chimborazo. More generally, Gutiérrez seems to be considered as outdated and the media doesn't focus on him as Lasso is now the novelty.

Gutiérrez ran on a very right-wing (if not far-right) platform. He wants to impose visas on foreigners and census all of them living in Ecuador. Immigration is a big problem in the Colombian border provinces (Esmeraldas, Carchi) where many Colombians refugees fled the civil war and the violence in their country. Insecurity and drug traffic developed here. Mexican drug cartels (especially the Sinaloa cartel) also tried to establish themselves in the coastal ports of Esmeraldas and Manta (in Manabí). In order to fight crimes, Gutiérrez proposed to allow private citizens to carry firearms. Other measures proposed include massive (and somewhat unrealistic) tax cut and the withdrawal from the ALBA. Gutiérrez had previously criticized grant of asylum to Assange, claiming that Correa wanted to use the hacker to rig the election. So, he would probably expelled Assange from Ecuadorian soil if elected.

Gutiérrez's running-mate is Perla Boyes, a former beauty queen from the province of Manabí with no consistent political past. She is an evangelical. Interestingly, Gutiérrez also considered the PRE candidate Nelson Zavala as a possible running-mate. The evangelical pastor said later he refused Gutiérrez's offer because there was a gay among Gutiérrez's staff. The PSP is the only party to support Gutiérrez's candidacy. PSP's top candidate on the national list is Gilmar Gutiérrez, Lucio's brother.

[Sir John Johns]

Rafael Correa

I haven't time to develop about him (but information is easily findable). Correa has said this will be his last presidential election. Don't know if this promise must be considered as a serious one. The incumbent vice president is Lenín Moreno the most popular politician in Ecuador. He used his position to promote an ambitious program to improve the situation of disable persons in Ecuador. His record was approved by the whole political class and he was even nominated for Nobel Peace Prize. He is now retiring, officially on grounds of health problems.

To succeed him, Correa made a very surprising choice and designated his minister of Coordination and Strategic Sectors Jorge Glas. This latter is a technocratic figure with a low name recognition and will be charged of political questions in the next Correa administration. This took the other candidates by surprise as the most part of them tried to choose a running-mate with a profile similar to Lenín Moreno (i.e. whose role would be to deal with consensual social issues).

Glas is also from the Guayas province, as Correa, which is a breach of the political tradition to constitute the presidential ticket with one member from the Costa and one from the Sierra. There are of course exceptions to the rule, but it was generally the fact of parties with few support in one of the two regions (in this election, the two candidates of the coastal populism).

Finally, Glas is embroiled in various controversies. One of them is the indictment of his father in an ugly rape case involving a minor. Ecuadorian government had been accused (don't know if it's true) to interfering in the trial. Another controversy erupted when Glas was accused to have plagiarized his thesis.

Glas' designation was badly welcomed by the PAIS supporters who wished that Moreno ran once again. There is much speculation about the choice of Correa. Some said that Glas is Correa's designated successor but many think that he was chosen because he's a low-profile politician who would not be a competitor to Correa.

Beside of the PAIS alliance, the following parties supported Correa's candidacy.

The Socialist Party – Broad Front (PS-FA)

Founded as the merger of the old Socialist Party (PSE) and of the communist Broad Front of the Left (FADI), the PS-FA officially defended a very left-wing orientation. In reality, the PS-FA, and before that the PSE, is a political vehicle which successively sell out to various populist/leftist politicians. It previously supported Franz Vargas Pazzos, León Roldós, Lucio Gutiérrez. In 2006, it bet on Correa which rewarded its leaders with minor government posts. Correa doesn't need it now and he only gave them top positions on the list to the Andean Parliament. PS-FA was disappointed to not have spots on PAIS lists for serious posts. So, the leader of the party, Rafael Quintero, managed to present lists in most provinces but it would be a miracle if a PS-FA candidate is elected deputy. A sector of the PS-FA chose to support the candidacy of Acosta.

The PS-FA is strongly linked to the National Federation of Peasants, Indigenous, and Black Organizations (FENOCIN). The FENOCIN is generally viewed as the long-time rival of the CONAIE. It was the only of the three big indigenous organizations to loyally support Correa. However, the organization is by now heavily divided as two men claimed to be the legitimate president. One of them advocated a distancing from the government.

Avanza

Avanza is a very bizarre movement. It was formed recently by Ramiro González, a former ID prefect of the Azuay and Roldós' running-mate in 2006, and now the head of the Social Security. Avanza self-described as a social-democrat movement, but it proved to be a party with very low membership criteria. There party list looks like a casting for a dumb reality-show. It includes:
- Saruka Rodríguez, a former beauty queen elected in 2009 as a PRE deputy
- Marco Proaño, a former PRE bigwig and joke candidate in the 2006 presidential election who is active in the Ecuadorian political life since the Mesozoic Era.
- Lady Mina (Miss Ecuador 2010)
- Karol Noboa, a model and TV-presenter
- Gerardo Morán, a techno-cumbia singer who was elected in 2009 as deputy for Bolívar under the banner of the Independent Movement Obras son Amores. He quickly left this party as seat as an independent. This year, he carpetbagged in the Pichincha province.
- Juan Carlos Estrada, a plastic surgeon
- Troy Alvarado, a musician
etc.
Avanza apparently used the equipment of the Social Security (notably ambulances) to campaign. It seems to be Ramiro González's personal vehicle. I read somewhere (but can't find where, so take this with a grain of salt) that González is a possible candidate in the 2017 presidential election.

Finally, I most evoke the funniest episode of the campaign:

The Don Burro candidacy

Avanza is not the only party to recruit celebrities to fill their lists. In fact this is a rather old phenomena. But this year, that is taking Ecuadorian politics to a new low. PSC tried to register the rapper Gerardo Mejía as candidate for the migrants in North America (this was rejected as Mejía was still registered as a PAIS member). Beside of the couple Dalo Bucaram - Gabriela Pazmiño, the PRE fielded Claudia Campusano, an actress known as Taxi Driver Rosita (Rosita la Taxista). PSP also selected actors as candidates. A newspaper calculated that 20% of the candidates running in the Guayas province were linked directly or indirectly to the television.

But the most widely publicized and criticized case was the selection of footballers Iván Hurtado, Ulises de la Cruz, and Agustín Delgado as candidates for PAIS. Even if PAIS fielded celebrities as candidates since 2007, it was seen as a further step toward the “starification” of the political life. It contrasted heavily with Correa's promises in 2006 to renew the political life and to prevent entertainers to run. Here a funny old Correa's ad denouncing that problem:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7q-s48sEJw

Things have changed since that time.

To protest the poor level of the candidates, a group of young people from Guayaquil attempted to register the candidacy of a donkey, “Don Burro” (Don Donkey) as candidate of the list 0. This turned into an Internet meme and the Twitter account of Don Burro quickly outnumbered in followers the Twitter account of the most part of political leaders. The organizers of the Don Burro said that they wanted to draw the attention of Ecuadorian citizens on the importance of voting and on the fact that politic must be a serious business, which is not the case in Ecuador. They also denounced the lack of independence of the electoral authority, the lack of concrete proposals from the candidates, and the absence of a real debate (Correa refused to participate in a debate between the eight candidates, stating that he would only participate in a debate in case of a run-off). Unfortunately, the Don Burro phenomenon faded away.

[Sir John Johns]

EXIT POLLS

Beware, Ecuadorian polls tend to be very approximate.

CEDATOS exit poll:
Rafael Correa (PAIS) 61.5%
Guillermo Lasso (CREO) 20.9%
Lucio Gutiérrez (PSP) 6% (big surprise)
Álvaro Noboa (PRIAN) 3.5% (lol)
Mauricio Rodas (SUMA) 3.1% (good result)
Alberto Acosta (MPD-PK) 2.9%
Nelson Zavala (PRE) 1.1%
Norman Wray (Ruptura 25) 1.0%

Null: 3.2%
Blanks: 1.2%

Public TV exit poll:
Rafael Correa (PAIS) 58.8%
Guillermo Lasso (CREO) 23.1%
Lucio Gutiérrez (PSP) 5.5%
Álvaro Noboa (PRIAN) 3.6%
Mauricio Rodas (SUMA) 3.3%
Alberto Acosta (MPD-PK) 3%
Norman Wray (Ruptura 25) 1.4%
Nelson Zavala (PRE) 1.3%

I really hope that Wray will be at least finished ahead of Zavala.

Apparently, Correa made a better result in Guayaquil than in Quito.

[Velasco]

The Correa's vid "the bycicle" is indeed good but I enjoyed "Abdalá Bucaram & Los Iracundos". See, in some programs of humour in Spain's TV there's done jeer of videos of certain bizarre Peruvian singers. Bucaram is even better and, in addition, the image of the guy descending in helicopter over the the slum ("El Loco") is unpayable. "El reyecito" is fine, but the animation resembles me too much The Lion King.

[Velasco]

I have the CEDATOS' page opened right now and the percentages differ a bit from the ones that you posted. However, it's not important: Correa has a 58.8%, Lasso 20% and Gutiérrez 5,8%. The poll is also interesting because it provides regional results.
Amazonia: Correa 43.8%; Gutiérrez 20.1%; Lasso 18.3%; Acosta 6.4%.
Sierra: Correa 55%; Lasso 22,2%; Gutiérrez 6.8%; Rodas 3.9%; Acosta 3.8%
Costa: Correa 63.7% (!!!); Lasso 18.1%; Noboa 4.2%; Gutiérrez 3.3%.

[RodPresident]

Why did people expected Gutiérrez to have a bad result in 2002? Maybe many reminded from Vargas Pazzos failures.
Why did Paco Moncayo never ran for President? In 2006, he would an electable candidate.
How Correa was able to get a so strong result in 2006? He was unknown and a minister to a somewhat unpopular President. Roldós would be in a stronger position.
Why did Febres Cordero never was prosecuted? As a controversial politician, he would be an interesting target to some of former presidents.
Would Dalo Bucaram and his wife competitive (winning 10%+) in a presidential election?
And I support a ticket Abdalá Bucaram/Alvin Greene for President of the World...

[Velasco]

The projection of the rapid count that gives the National Electoral Council is as follows:

Rafael Correa 56.7%; Guillermo Lasso 23.3%; Lucio Gutiérrez 6.6%; Mauricio Rodas 4%; Álvaro Noboa 3.7%; Alberto Acosta 3.2%; Norman Wray 1.3% and Nelson Zavala 1.2%.

http://www.cne.gob.ec/ProyeccionPresidencial.pdf

It's not possible to extract more information from the CNE site by the moment.

[Famous Mortimer]

John, I hope you are able to recap the 2009 election.

The endorsements as recorded by Wikipedia are quite unbelievable. It says the PRE endorsed Correa and the PSC endorsed Gutierrez. Additionally that the ID supported Correa, what was their problem with Martha Roldos?

[Sir John Johns]

I'm currently moving and I don't know when I would have access to the Net again

Sorry for cannot answer the questions (I will make this later).

Partial results on the CNE site:
http://resultados.cne.gob.ec/Results.html?RaceID=1&UnitID=1&IsPS=0&LangID=0

Lasso concedes defeat to Correa; he is now the only major opponent to Correa. Noboa contests the exit poll results and says that his own polls suggests he finished second and that he will force Correa into a second round.
Later, he will probably said that
1/ elections were rigged
2/ Lasso and Gutiérrez are responsible for Correa's victory.
Anyway, he apparently wanted to run a sixth time in 2017. Zavala also contested the exit polls as his own result doesn't reflect the demographic weight of the evangelists.

Transsexual candidate Diane Rodríguez protested because she was not permitted to vote in the reserved for women polling station. Also, Fabricio Correa (Rafael's own brother and vocal opponent) went to vote accompanied by a guy dressed in a Darth Vader's suit. This guy is really one of the most ridiculous Ecuadorian politicians.

Participación Ciudadana's rapid count for national deputies:

http://www.eluniverso.com/2013/02/17/1/1355/participacion-ciudadana-entrega-conteo-rapido-asambleistas.html

PAIS 51.6%
CREO 11.5%
PSC 9.1%
PSP 5.9%
MPD-PK 4.8%
PRE 4.4%
SUMA 3.3%
Avanza 3%
PRIAN 2.9%
Ruptura 25 2.6%
PS-FA 0.8%

2009 results for national deputies

PAIS 43.07%
PSP 15.18%
PSC 13.29%
PRIAN 6.01%
PRE 4.46%
MPD 4.29%
RED 2.1%
MCND (César Montúfar's centrist party) 2.8%
MMIN (Moncayo's party) 1.93%
ID 1.72%
Pachakutik 1.47%
UDC 1.14%
many others under 1%

Mae Montaño (CREO), Cynthia Viteri (PSC), footballer Iván Hurtado (PAIS), Gilmar Gutiérrez (PSP), Lourdes Tibán (Pachakutik), and Dalo Bucaram (PRE) were elected. The Bucaram name still seduced a part of the voters.
SUMA gets jurist Ramiro Aguilar elected (at least there will be a competent deputy), so Rodas' good result looks like more than a personal vote.
Paco Moncayo is defeated. PRIAN is dead, as PS-FA.

Short analysis on results (in Spanish)
http://www.elcomercio.com/elecciones2013/analisis-AP-consolida-bastiones-Luis-Verdesoto-Alianza-Pais_0_868113271.html

One of the key of the election is the province of Guayas:
http://www.elcomercio.com/elecciones2013/Guayas-cambia-mapa-fuerzas-elecciones-resultados_0_868113240.html

[Velasco]

The majority of Alianza PAIS in the legislative Assembly will allow Correa to pass his controversial projects on media legislation. Correa depicts some Ecuadoran press as "corrupt", "manipulative" and "mercantilist". El Comercio article linked by Sir John makes a parallelism between Ecuador and Argentina; in both countries the opposition forces are weak and fragmented at this point.

In the Spain's newspaper El País, the special correspondent sent to cover the election marks that Correa was the candidate who had more time in the public media and also the only one with charisma and the one with better propaganda. The article mentions the Correa's video "La Bicicleta", showing the president crossing the country on a bicycle and, by the way, showing the thousands of Km. constructed or repaired in the national road network, thanks to the undeniable economic growth in the last years -mostly due to the profits of the oil extraction-. But Correa's critics note that the image of an ecologist president riding a bicycle is far away from reality because, as one article by Fabian Corral in El Comercio says: "they are stealing the landscape from us".

From the balcony, it was possible to see the Cayambe, the Antisana and the Cotopaxi. Less spectacular, also they were in the horizon the Sincholagua, the black eyebrow of the Rumiñahui, the toothed sierra of El Puntas and the pyramid of the Illiniza. They are not anymore. Now there are a mass of cement, a presumptuous and ugly thing, a mass that, with its brutal bad taste finished with the landscape. There is the modern city, this that means 'development', plenty of ugliness and trash, of hasty car drivers and new riches fascinated in their bilge.

However, Acosta, the most vocal opponent of Correa on environmental issues, had a very disappointing result.

[Famous Mortimer]

Confirmation that the one PRE person elected was Dalo Bucaram?

[Sir John Johns]

Confirmation that the one PRE person elected was Dalo Bucaram?

Yes. Bucaram was elected as a national deputy. The PRE performed better in election for national deputies (4.4%) than in the presidential election (1.18%). It had decent results in election for provincial deputies (8.62% in Esmeraldas, 5.88% in El Oro) but that is not enough to get a candidate elected. Dalo has said it was an error for the PRE to nominate Zavala as presidential candidate. Child-Beater Nelson is apparently angry at Dalo's comments and has announced today that he will leave the PRE. The PRE should transform into a circus with Abdalá Bucaram as the Auguste and Zavala as the whiteface clown...

Final results will be only published in the end of next March. The PSC claims electoral fraud in the Guayas 2nd district. Also, there are so much problems with the total number of abstainers that the CNE choose to publish it at the end of the counting.
http://www.hoy.com.ec/noticias-ecuador/el-cne-quito-de-su-web-los-datos-sobre-el-ausentismo-574697.html

And, of course, the CNE website is now once again down


The three footballers are elected, but singer Gerardo Morán failed to be elected as Avanza deputy for the Pichincha. César Montúfar was also defeated in the province of Pichincha. He is a vocal opponent to the controversial law on the medias. María Paula Romo and Betty Amores were also defeated in the Pichincha; they were both pretty active deputies who running for reelection under the Ruptura 25 banner.

Ruptura 25 lost its parliamentary representation, as the PRIAN (good riddance), the PS-FA, and the MPD. The six seats won by the MPD-Pachakutik will all be held by a member of Pachakutik. There is speculation that now the MPD, which was in Parliament since the return of democracy, will now resort to violent opposition to Correa. The PRE, Ruptura 25, the PRIAN, and the PS-FA will absolutely require to win a least 4% of the valid votes in the 2014 provincial and municipal elections to keep their registration.

An article about the lack of political space for the traditional parties.
http://expreso.ec/expreso/plantillas/nota.aspx?idart=4155885&idcat=19308&tipo=2

Another article about the result for provincial deputies election (with a map at the end of the article). Note that several seats have not yet been allocated definitively.
http://www.elcomercio.com/elecciones2013/elecciones-Alianza-Pais-mapa-regional-hizo-verde-domingo_0_869313124.html

The PSC managed to elect a single deputy (out of 7) outside of the province of Guayas. The party should considered a merger either with Madera de Guerrero or CREO.
Avanza support is really weird.

Results with around 93% of votes counted (before the CNE website crashed):

Correa 56.67% (Costa: 61.6%, Sierra: 53.24%, Oriente: 36.24%) Best result: Gálapagos (64.23%). Worst result: Napo (25.44%)
Lasso 22.89% (C: 21.61%, S: 24.52%, O: 21.69%) Best result: Zamora Chinchipe (32.03%). Worst result: Azuay (16.83%)
Gutiérrez 6.89% (C: 4.55%, S: 7.69%, O: 23.92%). Best result: Napo (48.04%). Worst result: Santa Elena (1%)
Rodas 3.99% (C: 3.16%, S: 5.07%, O: 2.47%) Best result: Tungurahua (8.27%). Worst result: Napo (1.63%)
Noboa 3.68% (C: 4.82%, S: 2.64%, O: 1.98%) Best result: Santa Elena (8.61%). Worst result: Morona Santiago (1.12%)
Acosta 3.36% (C: 1.77%, S: 4.15%, O: 12.2%) Best result: Morona Santiago (27.03%). Worst result: Los Rios (1.16%)
Wray 1.35% (C: 0.76%, S: 2.04%, O: 0.81%) Best result: Pichincha (2.56%). Worst result: Zamora Chinchipe (0.47%)
Zavala 1.18% (C: 1.74%, S: 0.64%, O: 0.70%) Best result: Guayas (2.22%). Worst result: Zamora Chinchipe (0.32%)

Interestingly, Lasso performed better in the Sierra than in the Costa. With 24.19% in the province of Pichincha, he made here a better result than in the Guayas province (21.24%). He also won the best result for a right wing candidate in the Pichincha since 1998. Mahuad won then 37.12%.

Acosta's best result in the Costa is the province of Esmeraldas with 7.16%

[Sir John Johns]

Why did people expected Gutiérrez to have a bad result in 2002? Maybe many reminded from Vargas Pazzos failures.

Because polls were unable to correctly poll the remote indigenous communities and the poor areas which Gutiérrez eventually won. The last polls published was: Noboa 17.2%, Borja 15%, Roldós 11.2%, Neira 8.4%, Gutiérrez 8.4%. Other polls gave more or less the same result. An unpublished poll, four days before the election, gave Borja 15.5%, Roldós 14.6%, Gutiérrez 12.6%, Noboa 12.4%, Neira 11.6%.

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He was apparently not interested in running and preferred to concentrate on his job as mayor of Quito. Also, after the failure of the Gutiérrez presidency, Ecuadorian voters would probably have been reluctant to elect again a military-turned politician. Finally, Moncayo's then-party, the ID, had become a joke at that time.

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Correa began at something like 3% in the polls, but made a strong campaign and managed to appear as the candidate of the renewal, the most vocal opponent to the partidocracia and the most charismatic candidate on the left. He managed to gain the support of various intellectuals and political organizers who defected from the traditional left parties.

On the other hand, Roldós was more or less the candidate of the “old” left, most notably the ID which was discredited by its previous alliance with the PSC to remove Gutiérrez. The ID was also heavily divided and a sizable number part of its members rallied around Correa's candidacy. Roldós' own campaign manager, Gustavo Darquea, defected to Correa in the middle of the election campaign. Finally, Roldós was a rather uncharismatic and tired politician (it was his third presidential campaign).

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Febres Cordero was prosecuted after Borja came to power in 1988 for embezzlement but the charges were dropped in 1990 after the defeat of the ID in the mid-term election and the formation of the PSC-PRE coalition (it was at the same time that Abdalá Bucaram was permitted to return from his second exile in Panamá). Between 1990 and 2006, Febres Cordero was basically the most powerful man in Ecuador. Prosecuting him would be equivalent to political suicide. After Correa's outstanding victory and the collapse of the PSC, Correa instituted a truth commission to investigate the numerous human rights violations committed under Febres Cordero's regime but LFC died few after that.

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I'm not sure for Dalo, but I think he would never play a major political role. He is good playing the victim but this would probably be insufficient to save the PRE from extinction. Also, his footballing career has left bad memories: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/1323482.stm

Dalo's wife, Gabriela Pazmiño, looks like a figurehead who was only select as a candidate because:
1/ she's Abdalá's daughter-in-law (the PRE must be the most nepotistic party in the world as three of Abdalá's brothers were deputies, his sister was mayor of Guayaquil and deputy; Abdalá's wife ran the party when he was in exile in Panamá in the 1980s; Abdalá's three sons were all candidates for deputy that year)
2/ she is a famous TV-presenter.
She was constantly absent during the last legislature and made headlines because she continued to work on a public-owned TV channel

[RodPresident]

Thanks!

[Sir John Johns]

Final results with 100% of votes counted.

Abstention: 18.93% (24.72% in 2009)
Null: 7.23% of total votes casted (2009, 6.26%)
Blanks: 1.89% (2009, 6.74%)

National (% valid votes)
Correa 57.17% (+5.18)
Lasso22.68%
Gutiérrez 6.73% (-21.51)
Rodas 3.9%
Noboa 3.72% (-7.69)
Acosta 3.26% (-1.07, compared to Martha Roldós)
Norman Wray 1.31%
Zavala 1.23%

Sierra
Correa 53.23% (-1.46)
Lasso 24.5%
Gutiérrez 7.71% (-19.85)
Rodas 5.07%
Acosta 4.17% (-0.51)
Noboa 2.64% (-5.67)
Wray 2.04%
Zavala 0.64%

Costa
Correa 61.74% (+10.82)
Lasso 21.54%
Noboa 4.79% (-9.74)
Gutiérrez 4.53% (-22,34)
Rodas 3.12%
Zavala 1.78%
Acosta 1.75% (-2.33)
Wray 0.75%

Oriente
Correa 36.22% (+0.96)
Gutiérrez 23.87% (-31.14)
Lasso 21.78%
Acosta 12.17% (+8.77)
Rodas 2.47%
Noboa 1.98% (-2.37)
Wray 0.81%
Zavala 0.71%

Gálapagos
Correa 64.23% (+13.21)
Lasso 24.88%
Rodas 2.84%
Gutiérrez 2.38% (-25.2)
Acosta 2.24% (-3.45)
Noboa 1.98% (-11.5)
Zavala 0.79%
Wray 0.66%

Ecuadorians abroad

Correa 77.5% (+14.92)
Lasso 11.14%
Noboa 3.52% (-13.62)
Gutiérrez 2.47% (-8.53)
Acosta 2.38% (-3.84)
Rodas 1.28%
Zavala 0.89%
Wray 0.81%

Gender gap (M/F)
Correa 56.54% / 57.79%
Lasso 23.12% / 22.26%
Gutiérrez 7.3% / 6.17%
Rodas 3.41% / 4.37%
Noboa 3.93% / 3.52%
Acosta 3.3% / 3.22%
Wray 1.23% / 1.39%
Zavala 1.17% / 1.28%

Some random comments:

* Correa and Lasso are the only candidates to receive more votes than the total amount of null votes.

* Zavala made an ever worse result than Melba Jácome, the evangelical female pastor who ran in 2009 under the banner of the newly founded (and now defunct) Fertile Land Movement and made 1.35%. He finished sixth out of eight in his Guayaquil parish of Urdaneta, with 2.22%.

* Wray and Zavala received less votes than the total amount of blank votes, and also less than the required number of signatures for register. Correa trolled and said that the PRE and Ruptura forged their signatures.

* Rodas made better results with female voters in each of the 24 provinces.

* Correa had better support among women in every provinces, except the Guayas, the Gálapagos, the Napo (one of the few provinces where Gutiérrez performed better with female voters), and the Zamora Chinchipe.

* Lasso had better support among men in every province except the Guayas and the Gálapagos.

* Correa's support in Guayas jumped from 44.62% to 63.22%, the biggest increase (+18.6) at provincial level. Correa performed better in the suburbs of Guayaquil (Naranjal, 72.94%, Nobol, 70.2%, Yaguachi, 76.99%, Salitre 68.68%, Daule 65%) than in the city itself (“only” 60.98%).

* I have no idea why, but Correa's support collapsed in the Sierra province of Loja from 60.78% to 45.33% (-15.45). Lasso won here his fourth best result (31.32%).

* Correa's collapse in the Amazonian province of Zamora Chinchipe from 46.55% to 34.27% (-12.28%) is probably explained by the controversy over the big mining project in El Mirador. In the province, he won 34.27% (-12.28) against 32.03% for Lasso, and 18.21% for Acosta. This is Lasso's best province, and Acosta second best province. Lasso won 4 cantons (out of 9), including Zamora, the most populated city (L: 34.48%, C: 33.82%, A: 15.37%), while Acosta won the canton of Yacuambi (A: 45.03%, L: 24.48%, C: 23.06%). In the canton of El Pangui (seat of the El Mirador project), Correa won a weak 36.3%, against 31.79% for Acosta, and 22.04% for Lasso.

* Results in the Amazonian province of Morona Santiago are also very interesting: despite the impressive collapse of Gutiérrez's vote (from 56.47% to 17.03%), Lasso underperformed here with 18.29% and Correa lost few votes (from 33.77% to 33.53%). The big winner is Alberto Acosta who won his best result with 21.62%. He won 5 of the 12 cantons, most notably the canton of Taisha where he took 74.07%. Correa finished third with 7.32%, behind Gutiérrez (10.97%), his worst result in Ecuador. There is apparently some ethnic factor here, as these cantons are predominantly inhabited by the Shuar people (famous for its tradition of head shrinking). The most voted candidate in the election for the provincial deputies of Morona Santiago is the Shuar leader Pepe Acacho (Pachakutik), a prominent member of the CONAIE and a vocal opponent to the water law. He was briefly jailed on the grounds of “sabotage” and “terrorism” in 2011.

* In the adjacent Amazonian province of Pastaza, Gutiérrez suffered a devastating collapse, down from 56.22% to 13.06% (-43.17). Correa marginally improved his 2009 score (from 32.44% to 36.3%). Acosta won 7.69% (his third best result), while Lasso took here his third best result (31.34%). Gutiérrez won the Kichwa-populated canton of Arajuno in a highly contested four-way (Gutiérrez, 26.57%, Correa 24.46%, Lasso 24.43%, and Acosta 21.67%), while Lasso won the canton of Santa Clara (a bit less than the half of the inhabitants is indigenous according to the INEC website) with 36.38%. Correa won 30.13; Gutiérrez 22.41%, and Acosta only 6.44%. The two other cantons of the province were won by Correa.

* Unsurprisingly, Gutiérrez won the Kichwa-populated province of the Napo, his stronghold, with 48.04%, but down from 71.01% in 2009 (-22.97). Correa is second with 25.44% (worst province for him) compared to 21.77% in 2009 (+3.67). Lasso won 18% and Acosta 4.55%. Gutiérrez won the two predominantly indigenous-populated cantons of Tena (53.36%, his best result and also the place where he was raised) and Archidona, and the canton of Carlos Julio Arosemena (Mestizo, 49.18%; Indigenous 46.7%). Correa won the two remaining cantons: El Chaco (M: 81.65%, I: 11.56%), and Quijós (M: 83.95%, I: 6.52%).

* Beside of the 19 cantons (out of 221) previously mentioned, Correa lost two other cantons. Firstly, Cascales, in the province of Sucumbíos, the canton with the most important indigenous population (31.06%), which was won by Gutiérrez with 36.43% (Correa: 32.16, Lasso: 17.10%, and Acosta: 9.92%).

* Finally, Lasso won the tiny canton of Chambo in the Sierran province of Chimborazo. Correa took 42.01% in that province (-0.6%). The interesting fact here is the good score of Rodas (6.08%), his second best result. The support of the evangelical Amauta Yuyai seems to explain this result.

* Rodas' best result is in the province of Tungurahua (8.26%), thanks probably to the support of the protestant indigenous organizations.

Results with Ecuadorians abroad are very funny and four candidates made there their best performance.

* Zavala made his best result (by far) in Russia with 11.34% (97 voters). On the other hand, he failed to get a single vote in Panamá where Abdalá Bucaram resides.

* Wray made his best result in the Netherlands with 5.43% (192 voters).

* For some reason, Rodas won the vote in Malaysia with 37.5% (well, he took 6 of the 16 valid votes).

* Lasso won South Africa with 60% (10 voters), India (50% with 8 valid votes), and Peru (44.83%, 430 voters).

* Finally, Correa won 100% in Turkey and in Singapore (respectively 4 and 5 voters). He also won 87.79% in Cuba (1220 voters), and 76.86% in Venezuela (6687 voters), but also, perhaps more surprisingly, 84.85% in Spain (60.207 voters).

[Sir John Johns]

As Hashemite explained me how to make map (thanks to him!), I made some maps of the presidential results.

Please be indulgent, this is my first map. Yeah, I know, the key is unreadable. I'm a bit confuse about how to fix it.. Sorry, I can be an idiot sometimes. I correct it the way Velasco suggested to me.





Comments, suggestions, criticisms, are welcomed.

[Velasco]

I think that your maps are fine. It's a good idea including the swings of Correa and his leftist opponents in 2009 and 2013; both maps seem to be mirror images in some departments of the coast. Maybe it would be better including these two and the other swing maps in a separate image for better comparison. I guess that you used Paint.

Congratulations for your great work here.

[Sir John Johns]

Thanks.

Now, the maps for the election of the 15 National Deputies. These one are, in my opinion, better and clearer.

For the record national results:
Allianza PAIS 52.31%
CREO 11.42%
PSC 8.96%
PSP 5.64%
MPD-Pachakutik 4.73%
PRE 4.51%
SUMA 3.22%
PRIAN 3%
Avanza 2.92%
Ruptura 2.48%
PS-FA 0.8%



PAIS map is very interesting. It looks like that the party does best in populous and economically dynamic provinces and underperforms in remote and rural provinces.

CREO map is a bit strange. It clearly made better results in the Sierra. I have probably misunderstood Lasso's candidacy by linking it to the old PSC. I think that he and CREO are more the heirs of the christian democrat DP.

No surprise with the PSC. Its electoral support is heavily concentrated in the province of the Guayas and the adjacent provinces (except of course the Azuay and the Cañar which were separated from Guayas by the Andes).

The PSP is really weak in the Costa and in the urban provinces of the Sierra (Azuay, Pichincha).

MPD/Pachakutik is totally absent from the Costal provinces outside of the Esmeraldas. Its support is unsurprisingly stronger in indigenous provinces.

The divide between the Costa and the Sierra is apparent on the PRE map. Note that this map is somewhat different from the map of the presidential vote. I suspect many traditional PRE voters to have vote Correa in the presidential vote and to pick Dalo Bucaram on their list of national deputies.



SUMA vote is concentrated on the central Sierra, both in the rural provinces and in the Pichincha, seat of the capital Quito. Best result was in the Tungurahua. IIRC it's a province which is traditionally more right wing than the other Sierran provinces. There is also probably a sizeable number of evangelicals.

The PRIAN map is the Costal provinces plus the central Sierra.

Avanza map is, well ..., weird. I guess this new party is mostly made up of local caciques with no cohesion between them.

Ruptura is very stereotyped. This is basically the Sierra (with biggest results in urban cities of Quito, Cuenca, and Ambato) plus the Amazonian province of Pastaza.

The PS-FA map looks like a bit the PSP map with strongest results in the Amazonian and indigenous provinces and lowest results in the Costa.

In the news:

Nelson Zavala was fined $3.180 and deprived of his political rights for one year. The Supreme Electoral Court sentenced him because of his homophobic comments. His candidacy was really an epic failure.

Also, Abdalá Bucaram said, as his son, that Zavala was a bad candidate. He blustered about the fact that the PRE is the only party whose legislative result is four times its presidential result. Btw, the PRE hold its congress last week in Panamá and is actively preparing the next municipal elections.

By contrast, the PRIAN and Álvaro Noboa seem to have vanished. The party's website wasn't updated since the election.

The new airport of Quito was inaugurated few weeks ago. A controversy broke out as the inauguration plaque mentions Rafael Correa and mayor of Quito Augusto Barrera (PAIS) but not former mayor Paco Moncayo who played a big role in the airport project. Ruptura 25 considered a Moncayo's candidacy for the next Quito municipal election, but he is apparently reluctant to run once more. Barrera will probably run for reelection but he could face Ramiro González, the leader of Avanza and formerly a prefect of the Pichincha province.

[Sir John Johns]

*Bump*

Álvaro Noboa left Ecuador just after deleting his Twitter account.
http://www.elcomercio.com/politica/Alvaro-Noboa-salio-pais-Prian_0_887311412.html

Nobody - even not his lawyer Sylka Sánchez - knows where he is now. Wednesday, a judge cancelled a previous ban on Noboa from leaving the country. The ban was associated with Noboa's problems with the Ecuadorian IRS. Sánchez indicated that she doesn't know where Noboa is, but that she is sure Noboa has left the country. She also indicated that Noboa doesn't try to flee justice and is abroad for his business. It doesn't explain why he deleted his Twitter account.


Is there in the world an electoral body more incompetent than the CNE?

Not only the incompetent Consejo Nacional Electoral has still not yet proclaimed the results (more than a month after the poll), but its members decided it's time for them to take a week off.

http://www.elcomercio.com/politica/Criticas-CNE-semana-vacancia-elecciones_0_886711361.html


The Electoral Court rejected Zavala's appeal.
http://www.elcomercio.com/politica/TCE-ratifico-sancion-Nelson-Zavala_0_885511730.html
He will have to pay $3.180 and cannot vote nor seek a public office for a year.


The PRE over-performed among the convicts

http://www.eluniverso.com/2013/03/17/1/1355/tendencia-diferente-afin-pre-marca-voto-carcelario.html

8.963 convicts were entitled to participate in the voting. The PRE candidates made big scores in the jails. Zavala even reached 28% in a precinct while the National Deputies PRE list made an impressive 40% in the men's prison of Ambato (Tungurahua). The party had historically a special appeal to the illiterates and the under-educated (who are, arguably over-represented in prisons).

[Sir John Johns]

Sorry if this post is a bit confuse but I have hard time to understand something to the whole Noboa mess.

Álvaro Noboa resurfaced via Skype and pretended to be in Miami. He stated he will spend several months abroad for personal business and claimed he legally left Ecuador as children's judge Yvonne Hernández nullified his ban from leaving Ecuador (don't ask me why a children's judge is involved in the Noboa case). To prove it, he exhibited Hernández's ruling in the Skype video. However, the Ecuadorian Border Administration apparently didn't registered Noboa's exit, so Alvarito is now considered as a law-breaker by his arch-enemy, IRS director Carlos Marx Carrasco. Legal action against Hernández is apparently considered by Ecuadorian government.

Last year, Labour Judge Augusto Posligua was imprisoned during five months after he ruled in Bananera Noboa's favour and against the SRI. Last month, Posligua was found guilty of malfeasance. He was freed in early March.

The political consequence of this mess is the likely disapearance of the PRIAN in the short term. Not only I don't see how it could avoid deregistration after the 2014 local election (it will need to win a specified amount of mayors or local councillors to keep registration; the fact that the PRIAN is basically inexistent outside the Costa made the thing even harder), but I'm not sure it will managed to participate in this election;

[Sir John Johns]

National Electoral Council has officially proclaimed the winners in national elections on national level

The 15 seats of national deputies are as follows:

Alianza PAIS: 8 (+1)
CREO 2 (+2)
PSC 1 (-1)
PSP 1 (-2)
MPD-PK 1 (n.c.)
PRE 1 (n.c.)
SUMA 1 (+1)

Alianza PAIS also won the 6 seats reserved for Ecuadorians abroad.

And the results that nobody cares about: the 5 seats in Andean Parliament.
Alianza PAIS 2
PS-FA 2
CREO 1

PS-FA ran on a joint list with Alianza PAIS, which explained why it managed to get deputies. In fact, the two PS-FA candidates were named to the two top spots on the joint list. In 2009, the seats were:

Alianza PAIS 3
PSP 1
PSC 1

Seats for provincial deputies will be allocated later by the provincial electoral councils.

[Sir John Johns]

This seriously need an update as I have forgotten to give the results for provincial deputies:

Alianza PAIS 86 (+ the 6 seats for Ecuadorian aboard)
CREO 9
PSC 5
Avanza 5
PSP 4
MPD-Pachakutik 4
Regional movements 3

NGO Participación Ciudadana (Citizens' Participation) has calculated how the provincial seats would have been allocated if the 2009 electoral law was still in use - i.e. no electoral districts, and Webster method instead of D'Hondt method (remember, Webster method is still used for allocating the national deputies' seats):

Alianza PAIS 68
CREO 16
PSC 7
Avanza 7
PSP 6
MPD-Pachakutik 6
PRE 1
PRIAN 1
Regional movements 4

Under this scenario, PAIS failed to reach the 2/3 majority it currently held. Also, the 2/3 majority could be at risk if deputies acted like in previous legislature:

Composition of last legislature in 2009


Composition of last legislature in 2012

source

It's important to outline that there is no by-elections in Ecuador. If a deputy dies or resigns, he's to be replaced by his alternate (elected on the same list). So, there were numerous defections during the last legislature. The growth of the other/independent group is quite hilarious. This last was roughly made up of three categories of deputies:
1/ the deputies elected as members of a provincial movement who either opposed Correa either traded their support in exchange of some pork/legislative position
2/ the deputies elected as members of PAIS who defected and became among the staunchest opponents to Correa (these includes Ruptura 25 leaders Betty Amores and María Paula Romo)
3/ the deputies elected as members of anti-Correa parties who joined the pro-government majority in exchange of some pork/legislative position. Their support however tended to be unreliable.

So, it would be interesting to see if the next legislature will take the same line

Pachakutik deputy (reelected in last February) from Zamora Chinchipe (Amazonia) Cléver Jiménez had been sentenced to 18 months in jail with two other militants for insult to the President. More here (in English)

The Ecuadorian Government discovered that Álvaro Noboa fled the country before Judge Ivonne Hernández lifted the ban on Noboa from leaving Ecuador. So, now, he will have even more problems if he attempt to return to Ecuador. PRIAN's future looks bleak.

[Sir John Johns]

A last update:

The new president of the National Assembly is Gabriela Rivadeneira, from the Sierran province of Imbabura. At 29 years of age, she became the youngest president of the legislative body in Ecuadorian history. She was PAIS top leader in the election for national deputies. First vice president is Rosana Alvarado (PAIS) and the second vice president is Marcela Aguiñaga (PAIS), a former Environment minister. So the presidium of the new Assembly is all-female.

Rivadeneira is presented by Ecuadorian official press agency as the first woman to preside the Ecuadorian legislative body, which is not totally true. In 2000, Susana González, (PSC-turned independent) presided the Ecuadorian Congress for 22 days before her election was nullified by the Ecuadorian justice. Also, as vice-president of the Congress, Cynthia Vinteri presided the Congress in an acting capacity in the session in which Lucio Gutiérrez was removed from office.

Rivadeneira succeeded to Fernando Cordero, a veteran politician, who despite being reelected resigned his seat to take the presidency of the Ecuadorian Social Security Institute (IESS). He succeeded in that later post to Ramiro González (leader of the Avanza Party) which was appointed minister for Industries. There were other changes in the cabinet, but the most important is probably the creation of a ministry of External Trade. This could be seen as a blow to Foreign Minister Ricardo Patiño (reappointed to his post) who until then was also entrusted with responsibility for external trade. Patiño's tenure is heavily criticized as his administration faced various scandals (notably the discovery of cocaine in diplomatic bags by Italian police in 2011 and the discovery of traces of cocaine on a bust of President Eloy Alfaro before its moving from Ecuador to the Ecuadorian Embassy in Canada).

The most recent and hilarious scandal (occurred after Patiño's reconfirmation) is the diplomatic crisis with Peru that occurred the last few weeks after the Ecuadorian ambassador in Lima, Rodrigo Riofrío, turned mad in a Peruvian supermarket and fought with two women, hitting them with a magazine.

At first, Correa supported the Ecuadorian ambassador, arguing it was him who was assaulted first. However, it appeared that Riofrío provoked the fight by making racist comments to the women. Finally, both Riofrío and the Peruvian ambassador to Quito were repelled and replaced. Ollanta Humala will be present to Correa's investiture, so the diplomatic crisis is over.
The Socialist Party (PS-FA) is now deeply divided between two factions, one supportive of keeping the alliance with PAIS and the other that argued the party was badly rewarded for its long-time support to Correa and should join the opposition. The National Congress of the party turned into a brawl as the pro-Correa faction with the help of the police prevented Enrique Ayala Mora, a leader of the other faction to participate in the party's internal elections.

Speaking of the PS-FA, lol at their ad in the last election (also quite premonitory).

At the same time, the FENOCIN, one of the biggest indigenous confederation, considers abandoning its close alliance with the PS-FA. The FENOCIN is itself divided along the same lines as the PS-FA as two guys claim to be president of the FENOCIN.


In last month, Dalo Bucaram acted like an asshole during the accreditation of the newly elected deputies as he refused, at first, to handshake President Rafael Correa and Vice-President-elected Jorge Glas. Then he backtracked and returned to handshake Correa and Glas. But this time, this were Correa and Glas that refused the handshake. Also, Bucaram proved he is an idiot as he forget to sign his accreditation.


There is still speculation over the name of the various candidates in the next Guayaquil municipal election as Jimmy Jairala (center-right and new ally of Correa) seemed to have renounced to run to instead secure his reelection as prefect of Guayas. Incumbent mayor Jaime Nebot keeps up the suspense as he will reveal his decision to run or not in September. He apparently wants to retire but the PSC-Madera de Guerrero alliance pushed him to run for reelection as they don't have any other credible candidate. Nebot is the very popular incumbent and would likely be reelected. Guillermo Lasso's party, Creo, intends to run its own party president, César Monge, as a candidate no matter if Nebot is running for reelection or not. This illustrate the strategy of Lasso to distance himself from the PSC (he previously said that Creo and the PSC will not form a joint parliamentary group) and to label himself as the leader of a moderate and fresh center-right.
If there are people interest in the next Ecuadorian local elections (provincial prefets and  mayors in February 2014), I can try to make a thread dedicated on the subject.