North Korea declares War on South Korea

[bullmoose88]

Do we think the PLA amassing on the border is a good sign or a bad one.

[Incipimus iterum]

Do we think the PLA amassing on the border is a good sign or a bad one.

a good sign

[dead0man]

Do we think the PLA amassing on the border is a good sign or a bad one.

Probably a good sign, but we're not 100% sure.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Haven't they been at a state of war for 63 years now?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

PRC mobilizing troops and jets near N.Korean border

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I think the most likely reason would be to stop millions of refuges from entering China from North Korea.

[dead0man]

That would make the most sense, but....we still should keep an eye on it.

Plausibly they could be planning a regime change of their own in N.Korea.  Make contact with a few high ranking people, tell them the deal.  March into Pyongyang untouched and replace Un with one of the brothers that is more willing to play ball with the PRC.

But really, we don't know.  Your guess is the most likely though.

[afleitch]

China could remove Kim from power very easily. He would be deposed the moment they crossed the border. North Korea has no real friends or allies so no one would be particularly upset at such a regime change.

[dead0man]

That would probably be best for all concerned, but I'm not sure if the PRC wants that or if they could pull it off as easy as we are making it out to be.  I mean, it could be easy as a phone call to the right guy or as hard as the N.Korea Army can possibly make it.

[Zanas]

There's also a non trivial possibility that at least some part of the North Korean people would rebel against invading China to protect their leader and national integrity... They are conditioned to believe in that from cradle to tomb after all...

[Cory]

Do we think the PLA amassing on the border is a good sign or a bad one.

A good one I think. They are there to either...

A.) Contain the massive flow of refugees from North Korea in the case of war.

or

B.) Invade North Korea if they use nuclear weapons.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

China could remove Kim from power very easily. He would be deposed the moment they crossed the border. North Korea has no real friends or allies so no one would be particularly upset at such a regime change.

I suppose if they wanted to, they could do that, yes.  But hasn't China been aiding North Korea for years?

[Smid]

Do we think the PLA amassing on the border is a good sign or a bad one.

A good one I think. They are there to either...

A.) Contain the massive flow of refugees from North Korea in the case of war.

or

B.) Invade North Korea if they use nuclear weapons.

Or C, annex North Korea if America attacks?

[Benj]

Do we think the PLA amassing on the border is a good sign or a bad one.

A good one I think. They are there to either...

A.) Contain the massive flow of refugees from North Korea in the case of war.

or

B.) Invade North Korea if they use nuclear weapons.

Or C, annex North Korea if America attacks?

I don't see why they'd do that. China likes having North Korea around as a buffer state, but if they annexed North Korea, there'd be no buffer any more. And no one really wants to deal with the extremely impoverished people of North Korea, China included; only South Korea would be able to overcome that disinclination with nationalism.

I know I sound paranoid here, but could this potentially lead to a draft?

We don't need the draft to beat North Korea to a pulp if necessary.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Someone needs to cap Kim Jong Un to shut up him up lol

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems that in order to stay in power, Kim Jong Un has to prove to the generals that he's not afraid of seeking military conflict with the United States. Of course, seeking military conflict with the United States could eventually cause the downfall of him and his regime. He's playing an insane game in which he could lose no matter what he does.

[minionofmidas]

The biggest clue for North Korea's intentions is the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They need tha t revenue far too badly to cut themselves off via saber-rattling. Since it was built it's remained open through every escalation.

North Korea is now messing with Kaesong: http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/03/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

This period of saber rattling seems like its gone on longer and gotten more heated then normal; I don't know what could possibly make the regime think this much brinksmanship is necessary.

Prob'ly it's just that the US hasn't signed the cheque yet.

[dead0man]

Report: North Korea loads missiles onto launchers

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This is a big step in a bad direction.

[Silent Hunter]

At the moment, I'd say the DPRK is trying to do everything military and political it can without doing anything pretty much irreversible e.g. call up reserves.

[Beet]

I see parallels between this and the July crisis (1914). No one really expects anything serious, but once the rhetoric and military mobilization reach a certain point, it becomes harder and harder to climb down. It is really impossible to imagine what is going on internally inside North Korea, what the top leadership is thinking. A war would certainly lead to the death of all of them.

[Silent Hunter]

I see parallels between this and the July crisis (1914). No one really expects anything serious, but once the rhetoric and military mobilization reach a certain point, it becomes harder and harder to climb down. It is really impossible to imagine what is going on internally inside North Korea, what the top leadership is thinking. A war would certainly lead to the death of all of them.

I had a similar thought about 1914. As for a war leading to the death of all of them, I doubt it. There are usually some survivors from dictatorships that lose wars - and many dictators end up in exile rather than dead.

[Mr. Morden]

There are usually some survivors from dictatorships that lose wars - and many dictators end up in exile rather than dead.

Though it's less common in today's world than in the days of yore.  Now that there's the ICC and similar international courts, it's harder for deposed dictators to find a safe place to escape to.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The only problem with escalation having to lead somewhere (a la 1914) is that it requires both coming from a place of relative strength... most sensible analysts stress that this would be 'suicidal' for NK.

Part of this could be trying to get South Korea and the US to blink and attack... perhaps thinking they'd pull China in on their side.

[retromike22]

I wonder if any of this is Dennis Rodman's fault...

[John Dibble]

I wonder if any of this is Dennis Rodman's fault...

...maybe.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/33239/3-ways-dennis-rodman-might-have-started-the-north-korean-crisis

[Tender Branson]

Kim "Eric Cartman" Jong-un needs the dog-whisperer treatment:

http://www.southparkstudios.com/full-episodes/s10e07-tsst