South Shields by-election, 2013

[Phony Moderate]

UKIP are at a surprisingly short 4/1 with the bookies to get 30-40% (a range that would put them neck-and-neck with Labour....or at least disturbingly close to it).

[Leftbehind]

That would be beyond disastrous. Although Labour would surely be in the sixties, or thereabouts.

[You kip if you want to...]

That would be beyond disastrous. Although Labour would surely be in the sixties, or thereabouts.

That's generous. Don't be shocked if the Labour increase is negligible, like Rotherham.

[Leftbehind]

Meh, Rotherham had a strong Respect showing, and was under difficult circumstances for the local Labour party.

Labour's average has been high fifties/low sixties for generations (with only '83 and '10 being the modern exceptions); if they couldn't get near it here, that'd be a moral victory for UKIP.

[You kip if you want to...]

Meh, Rotherham had a strong Respect showing, and was under difficult circumstances for the local Labour party.

Labour's average has been high fifties/low sixties for generations (with only '83 and '10 being the modern exceptions); if they couldn't get near it here, that'd be a moral victory for UKIP.

I think I'm just a pessimist.

[countydurhamboy]

Meh, Rotherham had a strong Respect showing, and was under difficult circumstances for the local Labour party.

Labour's average has been high fifties/low sixties for generations (with only '83 and '10 being the modern exceptions); if they couldn't get near it here, that'd be a moral victory for UKIP.

I think I'm just a pessimist.

UKIP are polling higher in the polls and Labour lower than last November. All momentum is with them. Still I would be surprised if UKIP actually get 30% though. I'm expecting surprises on Thursday though
'

Red rosette made it obvious for UK eyes.

Yeah, relentlessly pointing out their bigotry and nothing else is a pretty poor way to attack them given I'd argue that's one of the things that unites them. Pointing out just how Thatcherite they are would be far more effective at getting the supporters they can (and the added benefit of leaving the supporters they don't want - the Tory Right where they are).

Wasn't Farage gushing with praise for Thatcher as well? I don't understand why the left don't make more of UKIP's Thatcherism. That's certainly what I would do in Labours position.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think the reality is that no one knows and that people are just throwing numbers around.

[You kip if you want to...]

Meh, Rotherham had a strong Respect showing, and was under difficult circumstances for the local Labour party.

Labour's average has been high fifties/low sixties for generations (with only '83 and '10 being the modern exceptions); if they couldn't get near it here, that'd be a moral victory for UKIP.

I think I'm just a pessimist.

UKIP are polling higher in the polls and Labour lower than last November. All momentum is with them. Still I would be surprised if UKIP actually get 30% though. I'm expecting surprises on Thursday though
'

Red rosette made it obvious for UK eyes.

Yeah, relentlessly pointing out their bigotry and nothing else is a pretty poor way to attack them given I'd argue that's one of the things that unites them. Pointing out just how Thatcherite they are would be far more effective at getting the supporters they can (and the added benefit of leaving the supporters they don't want - the Tory Right where they are).

Wasn't Farage gushing with praise for Thatcher as well? I don't understand why the left don't make more of UKIP's Thatcherism. That's certainly what I would do in Labours position.

It's not in Labour's interest to attack UKIP too harshly.

[Nhoj]

Meh, Rotherham had a strong Respect showing, and was under difficult circumstances for the local Labour party.

Labour's average has been high fifties/low sixties for generations (with only '83 and '10 being the modern exceptions); if they couldn't get near it here, that'd be a moral victory for UKIP.

I think I'm just a pessimist.

UKIP are polling higher in the polls and Labour lower than last November. All momentum is with them. Still I would be surprised if UKIP actually get 30% though. I'm expecting surprises on Thursday though
'

Red rosette made it obvious for UK eyes.

Yeah, relentlessly pointing out their bigotry and nothing else is a pretty poor way to attack them given I'd argue that's one of the things that unites them. Pointing out just how Thatcherite they are would be far more effective at getting the supporters they can (and the added benefit of leaving the supporters they don't want - the Tory Right where they are).

Wasn't Farage gushing with praise for Thatcher as well? I don't understand why the left don't make more of UKIP's Thatcherism. That's certainly what I would do in Labours position.

It's not in Labour's interest to attack UKIP too harshly.

Still wouldn't hitting UKIP on its Thatcherism potentially have the effect of getting tories to give it a look?

[Leftbehind]

...and also getting potential Labour voters to abandon it. The Thatcherite argument wouldn't dissuade - and as you say may encourage - Tory defectors.

At the end of the day when there's a possibility of being challenged by them in South Shields - better start doing something.

[countydurhamboy]

...and also getting potential Labour voters to abandon it. The Thatcherite argument wouldn't dissuade - and as you say may encourage - Tory defectors.

Exactly, get more voters and encourage a split on the right. Also we don't know how much potential support UKIP have in Traditional Labour areas but, I reckon it could be a lot. Their more of a threat to Labour than the tories are/were certainly.

It could also wrest the momentum back from UKIP who, at least for now, look like winners

[Leftbehind]

Agreed. A lot gets made about UKIPs second places in working class areas, but on the whole I'd just say they're winning the votes of working class Tories who they lost after Thatcher - those who were more attracted to national conservative messages than they ever were for neoliberalism (Enoch Powell rather than Daniel Hannan).

[Dr. Cynic]

Labour has to make a show of strength here though. This was David Clark's old seat in the lean years of Labour and he was always returned with a healthy majority before Miliband won it. They really should flex the muscle here and if they do poorly compared to UKIP, I think it will reflect very negatively on morale.

[joevsimp]

Agreed. A lot gets made about UKIPs second places in working class areas, but on the whole I'd just say they're winning the votes of working class Tories who they lost after Thatcher - those who were more attracted to national conservative messages than they ever were for neoliberalism (Enoch Powell rather than Daniel Hannan).

sounds about right to me, essex could get interesting from tonights results

[countydurhamboy]

Polls are closed. Twitter reckons
Lab mid 40
Ukip 30
Tories single digits
Lib lost deposit
Take with massive pinch of salt.

Its all seems to add up to a UKIP dawn.

[Supersonic]

Polls are closed. Twitter reckons
Lab mid 40
Ukip 30
Tories single digits
Lib lost deposit
Take with massive pinch of salt.

Its all seems to add up to a UKIP dawn.

Labour in the forties in South Shields, irrespective of the Tory result, is bloody fantastic.

[Leftbehind]

As I say, a huge PR victory for UKIP if true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Effectively UKIP have stepped into the gap left by the LibDems and the post Torrington Liberal Party before it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UKIP appear (?) to be briefing a slightly lower percentage for themselves (c. 25%) but there's seems to be broad agreement on the overall picture.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout was 39%

Edit: 66% for postal voters, 25% for everyone else.

[Leftbehind]

UKIP appear (?) to be briefing a slightly lower percentage for themselves (c. 25%) but there's seems to be broad agreement on the overall picture.

On what, Labour languishing in the forties, or? Mid twenties isn't all that impressive if the rest of the Right have collapsed.

[countydurhamboy]

UKIP appear (?) to be briefing a slightly lower percentage for themselves (c. 25%) but there's seems to be broad agreement on the overall picture.

On what, Labour languishing in the forties, or? Mid twenties isn't all that impressive if the rest of the Right have collapsed.

Well Labour got 52% in 2010 so mid 40's would be awful.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At this stage of a count its hard to know that much, actually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now the Tories weigh in: Labour c. 50%, UKIP over 30%, Tories c. 10%, LibDems depositless.

Though whether they actually have people there who could estimate that sort of thing with any degree of accuracy is another matter...

[Leftbehind]

Standing still on 2010 would be really poor, but not nearly as bad as otherwise for Labour. Still on the whole a terrible result though, if the Right are pushing 40%!

UKIP appear (?) to be briefing a slightly lower percentage for themselves (c. 25%) but there's seems to be broad agreement on the overall picture.

On what, Labour languishing in the forties, or? Mid twenties isn't all that impressive if the rest of the Right have collapsed.

Well Labour got 52% in 2010 so mid 40's would be awful.

Aye, you don't need to tell me that!