Though I've not crunched the numbers fully, something still kind of perplexes me about the state of the dem race at the moment. If Clinton is getting 20-25+ margins all across the south, and mopping up in the northeast corridor, and doing well in Appalachia outside of WV, and winning Illinois by a good margin... then how come the national polling is typically between 0-15 margins for Clinton? Given the state by state polling in these diverse states, one would expect Clinton to be pushing 20 nationally if not more unless Sanders was getting crazy high support in a few small pockets beyond just upper new england. Is everyone in Montana voting Sanders or something?
I think some of your assumptions are flawed. The only reason you can't see Bernie's Appalachian strength except in West Virginia is because West Virginia is the only state that is entirely Appalachian. Sanders will do well in East Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, etc., it's just that the rest of those states will outvote the Appalachian regions since there are few Democrats left there. And although Clinton's leading the Northeast overall, I doubt the margin is really as large as you imply above.
