2016 Primary Map Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2016 Primary Map Thread  (Read 197031 times)
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« on: October 23, 2013, 07:06:13 PM »
« edited: October 29, 2013, 03:04:27 PM by realisticidealist »
Based on three-poll averages where possible. Cruz is Red, Christie is Blue, Ryan is Green, Paul is Yellow, Rubio is Orange:



20% = lead of 1%
30% = lead of 2-3%
40% = lead of 4-5%
60% = lead of 6-9%
80% = lead of 10%+
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2013, 10:53:37 AM »
Based on three-poll averages where possible. Cruz is Red, Christie is Blue, Ryan is Green, Paul is Yellow, Rubio is Orange:



20% = lead of 1%
30% = lead of 2-3%
40% = lead of 4-5%
60% = lead of 6-9%
80% = lead of 10%+
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2013, 11:50:34 AM »
Based on three-poll averages where possible. Cruz is Red, Christie is Blue, Ryan is Green, Paul is Yellow, Rubio is Orange:



20% = lead of 1%
30% = lead of 2-3%
40% = lead of 4-5%
60% = lead of 6-9%
80% = lead of 10%+
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2013, 02:38:51 PM »
Based on three-poll averages where possible. Cruz is Red, Christie is Blue, Ryan is Green, Paul is Yellow, Rubio is Orange:



20% = lead of 1%
30% = lead of 2-3%
40% = lead of 4-5%
60% = lead of 6-9%
80% = lead of 10%+
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2013, 02:16:07 PM »
Based on three-poll averages where possible. Cruz is Red, Christie is Blue, Ryan is Green, Paul is Yellow, Rubio is Orange, Ties are in White:



Florida is Bush-Rubio tie, Ohio is Christie-Paul tie.

20% = lead of 1%
30% = lead of 2-3%
40% = lead of 4-5%
60% = lead of 6-9%
80% = lead of 10%+
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2013, 01:28:46 PM »
Based on three-poll averages where possible. Cruz is Red, Christie is Blue, Ryan is Green, Paul is Yellow, Rubio is Orange, Ties are in White:



Florida is Bush-Rubio tie, Ohio is Christie-Paul tie.

20% = lead of 1%
30% = lead of 2-3%
40% = lead of 4-5%
60% = lead of 6-9%
80% = lead of 10%+
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2013, 02:17:17 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2013, 12:15:12 PM by realisticidealist »
Based on three-poll averages where possible. Cruz is Red, Christie is Blue, Ryan is Green, Paul is Yellow, Rubio is Orange, Ties are in White:



Florida is Bush-Rubio tie, Ohio is Christie-Paul tie.

20% = lead of 1%
30% = lead of 2-3%
40% = lead of 4-5%
60% = lead of 6-9%
80% = lead of 10%+
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2014, 09:10:39 PM »
Based on three-poll averages where possible. Cruz is Red, Christie is Blue, Bush is Green, Paul is Yellow, Huckabee is Orange, Ties are in White:



Wisconsin is a Ryan lead but I don't have a color left for him.

20% = lead of 1%
30% = lead of 2-3%
40% = lead of 4-5%
60% = lead of 6-9%
80% = lead of 10%+
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2015, 02:09:45 PM »
Some candidate strength maps from post-recent Trump surge polling (7/30ish-now)

FIRST TIER (in 5% increments)

Trump:


SECOND TIER (in 3% increments)

Bush:


Walker:


Carson:


Cruz:


Huckabee:


THIRD TIER (In 2% increments)

Rubio:


Christie:


Kasich:


FOURTH TIER (In 1% increments)

Paul:


Fiorina:


Jindal:


Perry:


Graham:


Santorum:


Pataki:
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2015, 02:10:11 PM »
WINNER (Normal scale, Trump blue, Walker green, Cruz yellow):
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2015, 02:15:00 AM »
Here's the last month's worth of "polling" done via ISideWith.com by congressional district:
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2015, 12:40:28 PM »
The Elon NC poll has Hillary winning whites 45-34 over Sanders. No Biden, though.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2015, 09:27:10 PM »

I think he's looking at FDU's national poll.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2015, 12:20:08 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2015, 12:23:59 PM by realisticidealist »
Most recent month's worth of iSideWith.com "polling"



Trump maintains his bases of strength in southwestern suburbs (LA, Las Vegas, Phoenix), the northeast (especially the New York suburbs), and in some Midwestern suburbs (Chicago, Detroit) but not others (Milwaukee). Fiorina makes an appearance, and Rubio wins several CDs in south Florida, the Beltway, and Santa Monica/west LA County.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2015, 11:31:15 PM »
Latest iSideWith.com update with Carson in blue and Rubio in green
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #15 on: December 02, 2015, 01:45:25 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on November 16, 2015, 11:31:15 PM
Latest iSideWith.com update with Carson in blue and Rubio in green



Update:
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #16 on: December 08, 2015, 03:01:23 PM »

Carson in complete collapse on iSideWith:
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2015, 09:12:16 PM »

That's why you should use an average, not just the latest poll.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #18 on: December 10, 2015, 06:11:44 PM »
Quote from: Fubart Solman on December 10, 2015, 06:07:15 PM

I know that it's from isidewith, but where do you get the data from? I couldn't find it (maybe it isn't on the mobile site).

https://www.isidewith.com/map/A4zD/2016-republican-primary#z5

It gets updated fairly frequently.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #19 on: December 15, 2015, 02:55:57 PM »

Might as well just update weekly from here on
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #20 on: December 25, 2015, 11:53:18 AM »
« Edited: December 25, 2015, 11:55:25 AM by realisticidealist »
Quote from: realisticidealist on December 15, 2015, 02:55:57 PM
Might as well just update weekly from here on



Trump now leads everywhere except DC, though Cruz is close in a lot of states.



Trump's maps look awfully like the pre-Reagan Democratic strength map.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #21 on: January 02, 2016, 01:42:09 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on December 25, 2015, 11:53:18 AM
Trump now leads everywhere except DC, though Cruz is close in a lot of states.



Trump's maps look awfully like the pre-Reagan Democratic strength map.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #22 on: January 13, 2016, 12:12:33 PM »

TRUMP-mania sweeping the nation!
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2016, 04:36:55 PM »

Old Ipsos polling. They did statewide tracking polls for a while.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2016, 10:37:17 AM »
Quote from: Nathan Towne on January 29, 2016, 10:34:54 AM
Hi,

Thanks for providing the maps. Dave Leip's Atlas is a very valuable site.

You may be interested that ISideWith.com provides an online for Nebraska voters (presumably via url address) on their preferred candidate in the GOP primary. The poll is updated daily and is showing Trump as having a clear lead (11 points) in the state.

I cannot provide a link as apparently there is a minimum of twenty posts on this site before you can do so but it should be fairly easy to find by simply searching for something along the lines of "ISideWith Republican Party Primary Poll Nebraska," via the google search engine.

I am not sure if they are currently tracking any other races.

I track the iSideWith results (Trump currently leading everywhere), but it's been decided that they won't be included here as they aren't scientific polls.
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