2016 Primary Map Thread

[Nathan Towne]

Hi,

Thanks for providing the maps. Dave Leip's Atlas is a very valuable site.

You may be interested that ISideWith.com provides an online for Nebraska voters (presumably via url address) on their preferred candidate in the GOP primary. The poll is updated daily and is showing Trump as having a clear lead (11 points) in the state.

I cannot provide a link as apparently there is a minimum of twenty posts on this site before you can do so but it should be fairly easy to find by simply searching for something along the lines of "ISideWith Republican Party Primary Poll Nebraska," via the google search engine.

I am not sure if they are currently tracking any other races.

[Nathan Towne]

Alright. I am brand new to the site as far as my profile is concerned. How do I link a campaign endorsement to my profile?

[Nathan Towne]

I very much appreciate the assistance Darth.

Nathan Towne

[Nathan Towne]

I can see that two other users on this thread (Realist and Wulfric) seem to both be endorsing the Kasich campaign which is quite nice to see. As you are probably aware the campaign is really struggling, which is quite disappointing. Being that we are still polling around twelve percent in New Hampshire, I think that we are virtually on life support at this point. I don't see any viable way to be competitive in the state right now and if Kasich loses New Hampshire by fifteen to twenty points, then as far as reality is concerned, we are done.

[Nathan Towne]

"I know you are new to the site, but I would suggest finding a different place to post this (you might want to make a new thread on the "2016 U.S. Presidential Election" board), rather than the thread about maps. It's kind of nice to have each discussion in its own place, rather than having to search through unrelated posts to find what your looking for."

Response: I am not trying to disrupt the thread, I was just curious on their take.

Nathan Towne

[Nathan Towne]

PaperKooper is correct. The poll was conducted by the Star Tribune/Mason Dixon between the 18th and 20th of January. It is the most recent poll for the state of Minnesota. It can be found at RealClearPolitics.

[Nathan Towne]

No problem. I wish that we could get newer polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska and Colorado though.

[Nathan Towne]

Trump led by a slight margin in all three of the most recent polls of Iowa anyways. The margins are very tight though. I don't think that it is out of the realm of possibility that Cruz wins in Iowa tonight.

[Nathan Towne]

Jonathan, have you noticed that the color that you are using for states that Ted Cruz has won (currently Iowa) looks much more like a darker shade of the color that you are using for Rubio than the color that you are using for Cruz. Perhaps a dark yellow would be better and the current color that you are using for states that Cruz wins could be used for states that Rubio claims instead.

[Nathan Towne]

I am going to have to get used to the colors that you are now using for the Republican Party primary as I was used to Trump-Blue and Cruz-Yellow, but that is alright.

I appreciate the time that Jonathan Swift and Wulfric are putting into this.

[Nathan Towne]

Huge day today. As of now, it really appears as though Clinton and Trump could come very close to effectively closing these races out, or at least make great strides towards doing so by the end of the day.

[Nathan Towne]

Jonathan, why not use blue for Trump (as you are) and yellow for Cruz as it is the color that he seems to have been assigned by many sites across the internet, including the NYT and Wikipedia? Yellow seems like a good color for the Cruz campaign to me as well for some reason.

[Nathan Towne]

Nice. That is a lot easier on the eyes.

A few observations. Firstly, whether it be PPP from two years ago up through the Gravis Marketing poll conducted last Summer, Cruz seems to be leading in Montana. The Gravis Marketing poll is probably the most reliable as of now, although there is certainly no doubt that we need a new poll for Montana. Polls conducted during the Summer of 2015 have little value at this point. I am not sure whether or not it was conducted before the poll that had Trump leading. It is possible.

Also, the latest poll in Pennsylvania, conducted by Fox News between the 4th and the 7th of this month, has Trump leading in the state by a mush larger margin than the Morning Call poll conducted immediately before it (beginning on the 1st). They are recording a staggering margin; Trump-48/Kasich-22/Cruz-20.

Latest Democratic Party poll from California, conducted by Field, has Clinton up 47-41 over Sanders. Latest Maryland poll for the Democratic Party has Clinton up 55-40 on Sanders (Wash. Post./Univ. of Maryland). Latest Democratic Party poll out of Pennsylvania, conducted by Fox News, has Clinton up 49-38 over Sanders.

Thanks,
Nathan Towne

[Nathan Towne]

Wulfric,

It seems as though you think that Sanders has essentially no chance at this point of winning the nomination. Is that accurate?

[Nathan Towne]

Wulfric,

It seems as though you think that Sanders has essentially no chance at this point of winning the nomination. Is that accurate?

Yeah. While I've worked out the math for him to catch up in pledged delegates, it requires pulling off a 53-47 win in New York, a 60-40 win in Pennsylvania, a 70-30 win in Oregon, and a 58.5-41.5 win in California (among other things). It's not impossible, but it's really hard to see all of that happening. And even then, you have to account for the possibility that the supers declare it a virtual tie (perhaps pointing to the small NPV lead Hillary would likely still have) and stick with Hillary anyways.

Yes. Indiana is still to come though as well and he has lead in West Virginia in several previous polls. If Hillary Clinton takes both Kentucky and New Mexico though, based on where he seems to be in New York and California, it is all but over.

[Nathan Towne]

New poll out of Connecticut, conducted by Emerson, has Trump leading by a margin of twenty-four points over Kasich; 50%-Trump/26%-Kasich/17%-Cruz.

Quinnipiac now has Trump leading 55-Trump/20-Kasich/19-Cruz in New York.

I can't say that I am liking these polling results.