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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  2016 Primary Map Thread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2016 Primary Map Thread  (Read 169082 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« on: June 17, 2015, 01:04:55 pm »

Solarstorm, where did you find numbers for Idaho?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2015, 01:04:45 pm »



Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

OR is already a statistical tie.
Does anybody have the numbers for South Dakota? I see it says Hillary ahead 30-49% on Wikipedia, but they don't have the poll anywhere in their list.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2015, 01:15:58 pm »

Here's the last month's worth of "polling" done via ISideWith.com by congressional district:


That's a pretty cool tool, although their Democratic primary results are... suspicious to say the least.



Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton

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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2015, 05:43:20 pm »

Here's ISideWith's Democratic primary map by congressional district. Pretty unquestionably slanted in favor of Sanders, I think, but still pretty accurate as a PVI-style map. Instead of using all results from the past month, I chose the option for the most 1,000 recent votes from each district solely because it shows more contrast.

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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2015, 10:32:45 am »

Your comments to polls are very objective, not partisan. Tongue

pbrower should take note: include every poll, just make it's significance conform to your narrative.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2015, 05:57:04 pm »
« Edited: October 12, 2015, 05:59:01 pm by Thinking Crumpets Crumpet »

By the way, here's a preview of what that map will look like if/when Biden declares he's not running. A couple of states don't have Biden-less data, so I either didn't include those states if he had large numbers, or simply kept the same colors if it didn't look like it made much of a difference.

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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2015, 08:57:24 pm »

Here's the above map with Atlas shading:



I couldn't figure out how to give Vermont 10% shading without it just looking like a tie, so I gave Trump the 20% shading.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2015, 09:13:38 pm »

And here's the map for the Democrats:




That's why you should use an average, not just the latest poll.

I'm just using the numbers on this page.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2016, 12:33:47 am »

There is now an unbroken chain of anti-Trump states from Mexico to Canada. Just something to keep in mind when the inevitable civil war breaks out after this election and we're trying to anaconda the pro-Trump forces.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2016, 11:28:55 am »

Wulfric, don't forget to include the CBS and Fox polls of Indiana.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2016, 11:25:53 am »

I say fraud! Ben Carson was leading in Nebraska for months!
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