2016 Primary Map Thread

[eric82oslo]

New update.

Red: Rubio
Blue: Christie
Green: Walker
Yellow: Bush
Dark Yellow: Paul
Pink: Cruz
White: Tie (Ohio: Christie-Paul. )

If this map is correct, it means that each candidate currently leads in this number of states:

Rand Paul: 9
Chris Christie: 7
Ted Cruz: 2
Jeb Bush: 1
Marco Rubio: 1
Scott Walker: 1

And those states they lead in, are equivalent to this number of citizens (2012 numbers):

Chris Christie: 45.7 million
Ted Cruz: 29 million
Rand Paul: 24.4 million
Jeb Bush: 19.3 million
Scott Walker: 5.7 million
Marco Rubio: 3.1 million (yet it is Iowa, after all)

Appears like Chris Christie is a heavy favourite right now then. With Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Jeb Bush seeming to be the only ones who can seriously challenge him, unless Marco Rubio really fixes a huge upset for himself in crucial Iowa.

[eric82oslo]

7 different leaders in 25 different states - I like it.

Yet looking at 4 of the first states to vote - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida - it's looking like becoming a rat race between Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, which would be fairly interesting.

[eric82oslo]

For reference, it should be noted that two polls conducted in New Hampshire have shown Mitt Romney leading the field in that state.  However, for obvious reasons, those polls should be excluded from these maps.

"No, no, no, no, no, no, no and no" doesn't mean the same as "I'd rather shoot myself". So I'd say he's still up for convincing.

Though I agree it's more likely that Jeb Bush will run. Even his mother is less certain of herself now. She said he's by far the best qualified to run for president.

[eric82oslo]

Please change Mississippi from blue to red.

[eric82oslo]

RealClearPolitics is now including 37 GOP primary polls going back to the very first post-election 2016 poll in December 2012. Those who have lead the most times in these 37 polls are:

Chris Christie: 12 polls
Rand Paul: 6 polls
Marco Rubio: 6 polls (all of them being the 6 very first polls after the 2012 election)
Mike Huckabee: 4 polls
Ted Cruz: 1 poll
Jeb Bush: 0 polls/not a single one

Tied polls: 8 polls

Those who have lead the tied polls the most times are:

Rand Paul: 4
Jeb Bush: 4
Mike Huckabee: 3
Chris Christie: 2
Paul Ryan: 2
Rick Perry: 1 (the very last of the 37)

Now, if we include both the polls where one candidate has been on top alone as well as the leaders of the tied polls, the victor list of those 37 polls looks like this:

Chris Christie: 14 polls (38%)
Rand Paul: 10 polls (27%)
Mike Huckabee: 7 polls (19%)
Marco Rubio: 6 polls (16%)
Jeb Bush: 4 polls (11%)
Paul Ryan: 2 polls (5.4%)
Ted Cruz: 1 poll (2.7%)
Rick Perry: 1 poll (2.7%)

Thus, it seems to be a battle between these 8 candidates right now. Neither Walker, Santorum (despite being the 2012 runner up/"obvious heir") nor Jindal have ever lead a single 2016 primary poll yet. Walker's best poll was scoring 8% in June. Santorum's best poll showed him with 6% in November 2013. Jindal's best number was 6% in an October 2013 poll.

[eric82oslo]

These are the results I got this time (last time I did it was a few months ago):

1. Hillary - 93% (8 policy issues)
2. Bernie - 92% (7 policy issues)
3. O'Malley - 79% (4 policy issues)
4. Jeb Bush - 51%
5. Rand Paul - 46%
6. Chris Christie - 36% (environment)
7. Bobby Jindal - 30%
8. Trump - 24%
9. Fiorina - 21% (environment)
10. Kasich - 20%
11. Graham - 16%
12. Huckabee - 12%
13. Rubio - 11%
13. Perry - 11% (environment)
15. Walker - 10%
16. Carson - 7%
17. Santorum - 4%
18. Cruz - 1%

I side most with Hillary on: healthcare, education, economy, domestic & Foreign policy
I side most with Sanders on: social policy
I side most with O'Malley on: immigration
I side most with Christie on: environment

On the parties I got this:

1. Democratic - 98%
2. Green - 94%
3. Socialist - 81%
4. Libertarians - 28%
5. Republicans - 11%
6. Constitution - 5%

Ops, wrong thread I see lol.