EP elections 2014

[Enno von Loewenstern]

What exactly is "eurorealist" supposed to mean

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurorealism

[justfollowingtheelections]

I just watched the debate, and I have quite a few things to say.

On one hand it is kind of funny seeing these candidates and the interviewers take the debate so seriously, when no one in Europe cares about the EU elections, and no one actually votes for these candidates.  But nonetheless, I felt that the debate was far more interesting than the U.S. presidential election debates.

I thought it was obvious that Schulz and Verhofstadt (and to a lesser extent Keller) benefited from being MEPs and being used to debating european issues.  Juncker on the other hand has never been in the EU parliament.  His claim to fame is being the PM of a tax haven (to quote Keller) with less than a million people for about 20 years or so.  That's hardly good enough to compete with master debaters such as the other two who have been going head-to-head every day with the likes of Nigel Farage.
Tsipras would surely have the same problem (from what I read Tsipras was informed too late of the event and had a prior commitment in Portugal that could not be canceled) which I think we will see in the other debates.

I was rather surprised at how anti-American all 4 candidates sounded.  I expected them to be anti-Russian but not anti-American.  Verhofstadt is right of course when he says that Europe is lagging when it comes to technology (since the internet is pretty much run by American companies) but IMO that's mostly because English is the international language.

By the way I didn't have a problem with Juncker's English.  He appeared to understand everything he was asked, and I understood everything he said.  I thought it was interesting though that there were times when everyone seemed to be attacking him.  Verhofstadt was right to point out that the EPP is flirting with the far-right with members such as Fidesz (I won't even comment on Berlusconi because it's totally ridiculous that he's campaigning as an anti-Merkel candidate while a member of the same coalition).  I also thought it was interesting that he appeared to be the only one against immigration (and to be honest, while I don't believe in borders or nationalities and I think all countries should have open borders, his position seemed to be the most reasonable given the fact that anti-immigration sentiments are really strong in Europe).

IMO the winner was Schulz.  Verhofstadt was clearly the most intelligent man in the room, but talking out of turn all the time was disrespectful IMO.  Keller I thought was good.  I was actually surprised by how left wing Schulz appeared to be.  But again, none of this really matters.  No one in Poland, or Slovakia or Ireland or any other country will vote based on what they saw here.  EU elections are still however fascinating and by far the most interesting elections in the world.  I kind of wish they would take place more often.

[Tender Branson]

You can re-watch the full debate here, btw:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhafgcPeXes

[Antonio the Sixth]

You can re-watch the full debate here, btw:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhafgcPeXes

Thanks! I'm ashamed I missed it yesterday...

[Tender Branson]

Some infos on Austrian absentee ballots:

* Absentee ballots will start to be sent out this week, because the ballot was finalized last week and went into print.

* The BMI (Interior Ministry) is sending out info brochures about the election to every household (I got mine on Friday) that tells you the most important things about the election and also includes an absentee ballot request. (I already requested my absentee ballot online a few weeks ago).

* Absentee ballots can be requested until May 23, the Friday before election day.

* In the last EP election in 2009, total requests were 309.000 - so, anything between 310.000 and 400.000 requests this year would probably point to higher overall turnout (2009: 46%), but not necessarily: More people could vote absentee (an increasing trend), but overall turnout is still down. This already happened in the federal elections last year, when absentee ballots saw a big increase, but overall turnout went from 79% in 2008 to 75%.

* Absentee ballots need to be sent to the district election commission and arrive no later than 5pm on election day. They will be counted on the Monday, May 26.

[Tender Branson]

www.votematch.eu

... offers party test pages for various countries.

Check it out !

[Cassius]

These were my results for the vote match...

UK: UKIP (duh)
France: DLR/FN (no MPF )
The Netherlands: PVV/Christian Unie
Germany: The Republicans
Austria: REKOS
Italy: FDI-AN
Spain: Citizens (wuh?)
Czech Republic: Reasonable/Party of Free Citizens
Slovakia: Freedom and Solidarity
Poland: Law and Justice/National Movement
Lativia: KDS
Bulgaria: GERB/RB
Greece: Independent Greeks/Popular Orthodox Rally

These results are kind of all over the place...

[palandio]

Eurorealism is basically a slogan/self-description used by conservative (soft) eurosceptics.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Tsipras doesn't speak that good English anyway. He has more to gain from not going to these debates. If he presents himself as the anti-establishment candidate who refuses to go to these processions of 4 centrist parties arguing over which coloured neo-liberalist Eurofederalism they want. That's his rhetoric anyway.

Well apparently he will participate in the other debates, but I agree that it probably won't do him much good since he doesn't have much experience on European issues.  I kind of feel the Eur. Left should have gone with 2 candidates like the Greens did.

[YL]

VoteMatch results:

UK: Greens
France: Parti Européen/FdG
Spain: UPyD/X Party
Netherlands: D66/PvdA/GL/PvdD/SP
Germany: various far-left nutters
Austria: SPÖ/Greens/BZÖ/NEOS
Italy: Italia dei Valori/Tsipras
Czech Rep: ČSSD
Slovakia: European Democratic Party
Poland: Europa Plus
Latvia: Latvian Russian Union
Bulgaria: Coalition for Bulgaria
Greece: Olive Tree

A mix of quite plausible and utterly bizarre results.

[justfollowingtheelections]

There was another debate today:  http://euranetplus-inside.eu/big-crunch-presidential-debate-on-april-29/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Misleading use of the word 'big'.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

So who's favored at this point, EPP or S&D? I would imagine S&D would be better positioned, seeing as they lost last time around and Europe hasn't been too fond of incumbent governments lately.

[justfollowingtheelections]

So who's favored at this point, EPP or S&D? I would imagine S&D would be better positioned, seeing as they lost last time around and Europe hasn't been too fond of incumbent governments lately.

This isn't really the most scientific method to measure the number of seats each party will get, but by looking at the polls in each country, I got the following numbers:

EPP 203
S&D 188
ALDE 60
EUL-NGL 56
Greens-EFA 39
ECR 38
EFD 31

Also
EAF 27

I would be really surprised if Juncker isn't the next president of the EU Commission.

[Gustaf]

The S&D v EPP battle isn't really a thing anyway. As far as I'm concerned it doesn't matter.

[You kip if you want to...]

Two new UK polls. This is gonna be a horrible result.

ComRes/ITV
UKIP 38 (+8)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-4)
LibDem 8 (nc)

TNS-BMRB
UKIP 36 (+7)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-3)
LibDem 10 (+1)

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Two new UK polls. This is gonna be a horrible result.

ComRes/ITV
UKIP 38 (+8)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-4)
LibDem 8 (nc)

TNS-BMRB
UKIP 36 (+7)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-3)
LibDem 10 (+1)

Pretty funny.

However, I will not shake the feeling that this also means a certain deliberate overestimation of UKIP. Only to then provide them at 25% a failure. Do you have evidence for this thesis?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Saxony (federal state of Germany) European elections

infratest dimap for MDR

CDU 41%
SPD 18%
Left 17%
AfD 8%
Greens 7%
FDP 2%
Others 7%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ComRes and TNS are both infamously terrible polling firms. These polls were done at the same time as the last YouGov one which had UKIP on 31%, for whatever that's worth.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Broadly speaking, yes. UKIP came second at the last EuroParl elections and polled derisively at the General Election less than a year later. They'll do better this time, but how much better? Besides if your vote is fairly evenly distributed you can easily take 10% of the vote in a General Election and win no seats. And UKIP's vote tends to be unusually evenly distributed for a British party.

But it seems - assuming that the polling firms are in general broadly correct - that UKIP and Labour will both roughly - and that word is important - double their shares from last time at the expense of just about everyone else.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Broadly speaking, yes. UKIP came second at the last EuroParl elections and polled derisively at the General Election less than a year later. They'll do better this time, but how much better? Besides if your vote is fairly evenly distributed you can easily take 10% of the vote in a General Election and win no seats. And UKIP's vote tends to be unusually evenly distributed for a British party.

But it seems - assuming that the polling firms are in general broadly correct - that UKIP and Labour will both roughly - and that word is important - double their shares from last time at the expense of just about everyone else.

Well, http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/04/ukip-top-general-election-poll-in-eastleigh/ indicates, that UKIP could win Eastleigh. As far as i know, that is the first poll giving UKIP a seat.

Possible candidates Diane James and Nigel Farage:

 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polling is terrible.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I was polled for the first time ever two days ago.

How accurate were my answers? Well, they were accurate at the time*

(* to the closest degree of dissimulation)

[afleitch]

If UKIP poll strongly, while it'll only be milkable for a short while, it'll be interesting to see what effect it has on the voting intentions in the Scottish Referendum.

[YL]

Constituency polling is terrible.

I know this is widely believed, but is it actually true?  It doesn't seem easy to find evidence of what the track record really is.

In 2010, I'm only aware of one example, which was a totally inaccurate poll in Norwich South.

In 2005, I'm aware of five polls, four of which were OK (Finchley & Golders Green, Shipley, Haltemprice & Howden, Cardiff North) and one (Ynys Môn, which I suspect isn't the easiest place to poll) was not so good.

That isn't a great track record, but it's only six polls.  We'll have rather more this time, but the results may say more about Survation than about constituency polling...