Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[/]

Atlas map I generated. I'll  be updating it as everything gets in.

But...

[Miles]

^ Just beat you haha

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Insurance Commissioner - Opn Primary
3796 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 96%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Donelon, Jim (i)   GOP   534,471   54%
McGehee, Charlotte   Dem   187,683   19%
Parker, Matt   GOP   142,365   14%
Hodge, Donald   Dem   134,231   13%

Lieutenant Governor - Opn Primary
3796 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 96%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Holden, Kip   Dem   340,093   33%
Nungesser, Billy   GOP   309,778   30%
Young, John   GOP   300,400   29%
Guillory, Elbert   GOP   82,555   8%

Proposition - 1 - Rename Budget Stabilization - Ballot Issue
Act No. 473 - SB No. 202
3796 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 96%
Name   Votes   Vote %
No   487,431   52%
Yes   445,472   48%

Proposition - 2 - State Infrastructure Bank - Ballot Issue
Act No. 471 - HB No. 618
3796 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 96%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Yes   502,856   53%
No   447,994   47%

Proposition - 3 - Fiscal Sessions - Ballot Issue
Act No. 472 - HB No. 518
3796 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 96%
Name   Votes   Vote %
No   511,220   54%
Yes   429,499   46%

Proposition - 4 - Instate-Only Tax Exemption - Ballot Issue
Act No. 470 - HB No. 360
3796 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 96%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Yes   485,112   52%
No   456,848   48%

[ElectionsGuy]

Simple total Republican vs total Democratic map (warning: not Atlas colors!):



Total Republican - 57.5%
Total Democratic - 41.4%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First slot called for Holden in Lt-Gov. Runoff!

[Miles]

A few precincts out, but Lenar Whitney has a runoff in HD53 with another R. Would be great to have her gone.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Insurance Commissioner - Opn Primary
3921 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Donelon, Jim (i)   GOP   558,959   54%
McGehee, Charlotte   Dem   197,616   19%
Parker, Matt   GOP   147,037   14%
Hodge, Donald   Dem   139,669   13%

Lieutenant Governor - Opn Primary
3868 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 98%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Holden, Kip   Dem   350,828   33%
Nungesser, Billy   GOP   322,264   30%
Young, John   GOP   310,822   29%
Guillory, Elbert   GOP   84,929   8%

Proposition - 1 - Rename Budget Stabilization - Ballot Issue
Act No. 473 - SB No. 202
3921 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Votes   Vote %
No   512,882   53%
Yes   463,552   47%

Proposition - 2 - State Infrastructure Bank - Ballot Issue
Act No. 471 - HB No. 618
3921 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Yes   525,838   53%
No   469,436   47%

Proposition - 3 - Fiscal Sessions - Ballot Issue
Act No. 472 - HB No. 518
3921 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Votes   Vote %
No   535,008   54%
Yes   449,510   46%

Proposition - 4 - Instate-Only Tax Exemption - Ballot Issue
Act No. 470 - HB No. 360
3921 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Yes   506,970   51%
No   479,019   49%

[Miles]

Republicans also look very good to flip Ben Never's open SD12. Beth Mizell leads the Democrat 43-33 with another R at 21%.

[Skye]

How in the world did Edwards win Livingston parish?

[/]

How in the world did Edwards win Livingston parish?

There were kind of three major Republicans who split around 75% of the vote for themselves. So it's not like the Democrats are doing well there, it's just the spoiler effect.

[/]

What are the estimated legislature changes?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two More Calls:

Insurance Commissioner - Opn Primary
3921 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Donelon, Jim (i)   GOP   558,959   54%  WINNER
McGehee, Charlotte   Dem   197,616   19%
Parker, Matt   GOP   147,037   14%
Hodge, Donald   Dem   139,669   13%

Lieutenant Governor - Opn Primary
3921 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Holden, Kip   Dem   357,663   33%  RUNOFF
Nungesser, Billy   GOP   323,319   30%  RUNOFF
Young, John   GOP   312,115   29%
Guillory, Elbert   GOP   85,204   8%

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

How in the world did Edwards win Livingston parish?

There were kind of three major Republicans who split around 75% of the vote for themselves. So it's not like the Democrats are doing well there, it's just the spoiler effect.

But Edwards still got ~25%, which is a good deal better than Obama's 16%...

[Skye]

How in the world did Edwards win Livingston parish?

There were kind of three major Republicans who split around 75% of the vote for themselves. So it's not like the Democrats are doing well there, it's just the spoiler effect.

But Edwards still got ~25%, which is a good deal better than Obama's 16%...

Which is why I was asking...

[Miles]

John Bel Edwards' HD72 has been black-majority since it was created in the 1990's. Both Democrats running to replace him in the runoff are white.

What are the estimated legislature changes?

So far D+1 in Senate (Guillory), R+1 in House (Ortego).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And we have the projections for the 4 constitutional amendments now:

Proposition - 1 - Rename Budget Stabilization - Ballot Issue
Act No. 473 - SB No. 202
3923 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Votes   Vote %
No   513,078   53% WINNER
Yes   463,671   47%

Proposition - 2 - State Infrastructure Bank - Ballot Issue
Act No. 471 - HB No. 618
3923 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Yes   525,990   53% WINNER
No   469,603   47%

Proposition - 3 - Fiscal Sessions - Ballot Issue
Act No. 472 - HB No. 518
3923 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Votes   Vote %
No   535,179   54% WINNER
Yes   449,656   46%

Proposition - 4 - Instate-Only Tax Exemption - Ballot Issue
Act No. 470 - HB No. 360
3923 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Yes   507,133   51%  WINNER
No   479,171   49%

That's it for tonight. Runoffs will take place on Nov. 21.

[/]

How in the world did Edwards win Livingston parish?

There were kind of three major Republicans who split around 75% of the vote for themselves. So it's not like the Democrats are doing well there, it's just the spoiler effect.

But Edwards still got ~25%, which is a good deal better than Obama's 16%...

It's not a surprise, though. Edwards is a fairly conservative white Southern Democrat and Obama is, well, Obama.

[Ebsy]

Congratulations Governor Edwards!

[Miles]

Turnout was 38.5%. It was raining in most of the state during the day, but still below estimates.

[smoltchanov]

Some impressions and statistics:

Governor - Good result for Edwards and best possible for Democrats. Now Edwards really can (but not MUST) win...

Lt. Governor. Nungesser will win run-off easily

Attorney Genaral. Leans Caldwell. As conservative as he is Democrats will, probably, support him in run-off with Landry

Other statewide - as expected.

Education (BESE): LABI prevails. 6 elected are supported by it, and in 2 run-off at least 1 probable winner - too. FlipBESE - lost.

State Senate - most likely status-quo. Democrats flipped back SD-24 (Boudreaux), while Republicans will, most likely win SD-12 runoff (Mizell (R) - Murphy (D)) in old Ben Nevers seat. Overall there are 4 state Senate run-offs, but in SD-07 it's pure Democratic (Carter (black) - Arnold (white)), in SD-36 - pure Republican (Burns - Gatti) and in SD-38 Republican Burford is, probably, favored over Democrat Milkovich. Establishment Republicans beat back most attacks from far right (Appel, Erdey, Claitor, Chabert), though in last 2 races they got barely over 50%. In majority-black SD-29 white Democrat Luneau rather convincigly beat very conservative black Republican Dara.

State House. Republicans easily flipped HD-41 and (narrowly beating Ortego) HD-39. Their only other chance is in HD-32, but Hill(D) (but conservative-leaning) leads Smith(R) 49-37 there.  The only Democratic chance to flip Republican seat is in HD-103, but Republican Garofalo (39%) leads Democrat Hunnicutt (recent party switcher) (22%) there. Most other run-offs are intra-party (especially in majority-black or heavily Republican districts). In HD-72 we will see Carter's duel in run-off, with "centrist" Democrat Robby Carter (43%) favored over conservative Democrat Hunter Carter (20%). Among incumbents, who lost their races: Lorusso (R, HD-94), Woodruff (D, HD-87). Some incumbents  (Ourso (R, HD-66), Whitney (R, HD-53), Harrison (R, HD-51), Franklin (D, HD-34)) are forced into intraparty run-offs....

[Miles]

^ Lorusso is a good family friend of mine. Wasn't expecting him to lose

[Xing]

Wow, these were exactly the results Edwards needed. Vitter narrowly survived this round, but clearly took damage from the recent scandal. NEVER thought I'd say this, but... Lean DEM gain.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

OH damn it!!!


Edwards it is then.

[Miles]

I'll have the other statewide races coming:

[windjammer]

What is your prediction for the run off Miles?