Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

^ Yeah, it would be a really tough vote for me. Edwards is a great candidate. My whole outlook on this race has pretty much been supporting whoever would prevent Vitter from winning. I supported Dardenne from the start of the race because I think he's had a good record and would be a better safeguard against Vitter. Even in an Edwards/Vitter race, despite the polling, Vitter still has a chance.

Its pretty much a given that Edwards make the runoff anyway. I'm still torn, but I'd rather Dardenne finish second so that Vitter is knocked out altogether after today.

[Skye]

^ Yeah, it would be a really tough vote for me. Edwards is a great candidate. My whole outlook on this race has pretty much been supporting whoever would prevent Vitter from winning. I supported Dardenne from the start of the race because I think he's had a good record and would be a better safeguard against Vitter. Even in an Edwards/Vitter race, despite the polling, Vitter still has a chance.

Its pretty much a given that Edwards make the runoff anyway. I'm still torn, but I'd rather Dardenne finish second so that Vitter is knocked out altogether after today.

Why so anti-Vitter? It's an honest question, I just want to know, I'm not well versed in Louisiana's politics.

[Miles]

^ Besides being ruthlessly partisan, I think he should have retired after his (first) scandal in 2007.

[136or142]

These are the candidates running
Governor
Democrats
1.Cary Deaton,63, Laywer and Firm Owner, Former Assistant District Attorney, B.A-Political Science, J.D, 1995 State Attorney General Candidate (for nomination) (ran as a Republican, 2000 U.S Representative Candidate (ran as  a Republican), 2010 U.S Senate Candidate,  2011 Governor Candidate

2.John Bel Edwards,49, Intellectual Property Lawyer and Firm Owner, Army Airborne Ranger, 82nd Airborne Division Rifle Company Commander, B.Sc-Engineering (West Point Dean's List), J.D

3.S.L Simpson,44, Notary Public and Firm Owner, Retired Army Captain, U.S Army Reserve Captain and Former Commanding Officer in Iraq, B.A-General Science, MBA

Republicans
1.Scott Angelle,54, Secretary Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, Former Petroleum Land Manager, St Martin Parish Commissioner 1986-2000 (as a Democrat) (the position is actually called something like the St Martin Police Commission, which is just odd and is not actually a police commission), St Martin Parish President 2000-2004 (as a Democrat), Lieutenant Governor  2010-2011 (Appointed), Public Service Commissioner 2011-2015, B.Sc-Petroleum Land Management (Cum Laude)

2.Jay Dardenne,61, Lawyer and Firm Owner, Former U.S Magistrate, East Baton Rouge Metro Councilor 1988-991, State Senator 1991-2006, State Secretary of State 2007-2011, Lieutenant Governor 2011, B.A-Journalism, J.D, Winner Most Vile Pun Award

3.David Vitter,54, Business Lawyer and Law Professor,  State Representative 1991-1999, U.S Representative 1999-2004, U.S Senator 2004-, A.B- M.A (Rhodes Scholar)- Economics and History, J.D

American Independent
1.Beryl Billiot, ISO Panels Inc Business Development Manager (Insulation for Oilfield Use), Owner Skinney's (Steakhouse), Marine and former Cyrogenic Equipment Operator, B.A-Political Science and Government (4.0 GPA), BBA

Independent
1.Jeremy Odom,29, Baptist Minister and President Louisiana Ministerial Association (Service Provider for Pastors), Church and Clergy Tax Preparer and Firm Owner, Former Executive Director Big Brothers Mentoring Group of Natchitoches, Iraq War Army Veteran, M-Divinity, PhD-Divinity

2.Eric Paul Orgeron, Inventor and Entrepreneur

Lieutenant Governor (Responsible for Department of Culture, Recreation and Tourism)
Democrats
1.Melvin 'Kip' Holden, Lawyer and Law Professor, Former City Police Public Information Officer, Former T.V Reporter, Baton Rouge City Councilor 1984-1988, State Representative 1987-2001, State Senator 2001-2004,  Mayor of Baton Rouge and East Baton Rouge Parish President (2013 Population 445,227) 2005-, 1996 Baton Rouge President Candidate

Republicans
1.Elbert Guilory,71, Criminal Defense Lawyer and Former Law Professor, Former Executive Director Maryland Commission on Human Rights (Human Relations), Chamber of Commerce Director, Director Washington National Bank, Columnist Daily World Newspaper, Navy Veteran in Vietnam, B.Sc- J.D, State Representative 2004-2009, State Senator 2009- and Chair Retirement Committee (Democrat 2007-2013)

2.Billy Nungesser,56, Former Owner General Marine Leasing (Offshore Workers Portable Living Quarters. 200 employees and $20 million in annual sales), Former Chair Plaquemines Parish United Way, Non Profit Owner Pointe Celeste Therepeutic Riding Center, Former Plaquemines Parish President 2007-2015 (2013 Population 23,550), Son of Former Governor Treen Chief of Staff

3.John Young,54, Lawyer,and Jefferson Parish Chief of Parish Courts and Chief of Administration, Former Assistant District Attorney, BPA, J.D, Jefferson Parish Councilor 2003-2010, President Jefferson Parish 2010- (2013 Population 434,767)

Secretary of State
Democrats
1.Chris Tyson, Law Professor and Former Real Estate Lawyer,  Former U.S Senator Mary Landrieu Assistant, Former Management Consultant and Firm Owner, B.A-, M.A- J.D

Republicans
1.Tom Schedler,65, Chief Assistant Secretary of State, Licensed Real Estate Broker, SMH Foundation for Slidell Memorial Hospital and Medical Center Development Director and Hospital Director of Managed Care Services and Business Development, Former Bank Director, Louisiana National Guard Member and Former Navy Reserve, B.Sc-Marketing, Slidell City Councilor 1990-1996, State Senator 1996-2010, Incumbent 2010- (Appointed 2010-2011)

State Treasurer
1.John Kennedy,64, Law Professor and Former Lawyer and Firm Partner, Secretary Louisiana Department of Revenue, Former Governor Roemer Special Counsel and Cabinet Secretary, Incumbent 1999-, 1991 Attorney General Candidate (as a Democrat), 2004 U.S Senate Candidate (for nomination) (as a Democrat, 15% of vote), 2008 U.S Senate Nominee (45.7% of vote), B.A (Magna Cum Laude)- Political Science, Philosophy and Economics, J.D

2.Jennifer Treadway,46, Business and Insurance Lawyer and Firm Managing Partner and Former Law Professor, B.Sc (Hons)-Business Administration and Finance, Louisiana Law, Life, Health and Accident Insurance Certificates

Attorney General
1.Geraldine "Geri" Broussard Baloney,55, Lawyer and Firm Owner, General Counsel Baloney Funeral Home, Former Administrator New Orleans Board of Zoning Adjustment, Former New Orleans City Council Legislative Liason, Former River Parish YMCA Director, B.A (Cumme Laude)-Political Science, J.D (Hons)-International Law, 2002 and 2014 St John the Baptist Parish District Attorney Candidate, Democratic Party Endorsed Candidate

2.Isaac "Ike" Jackson, Mineral Lawyer and Retired State Department of Natural Resources General Counsel, Former Louisiana Attorney General's Office Chief of Natural Resources Division, Former Exxon  Refinery Electrician, J.D

Republicans
1Buddy Caldwell,69, Lawyer and Firm Owner, Former Semi Pro Baseball Player 6th Judicial District District Attorney 1978-2007 (As a Democrat), Incumbent 2007- (Democrat 2007-2011), B.A-Experimental Psychology, Minor-History, J.D, College Football Player and Track Runner, Guitarist and Song Writer, Elvis Impersonator, Opera Singer

2.Jeff Landry,44, Lawyer, Oil and Gas Small Business Owner, Former Police Officer and Sheriff's Deputy, Former St Martin Development Authority Civil Servant, Former Army National Guard Sargeant,  B.Sc-Environmental and Sustainable Resources, Minor-Biology, J.D, U.S Representatives 2010-2012 (District Removed in Redistricting and he lost member vs. member primary), Tea Party Candidate and Republican Party endorsed candidate

3.Mary Maley, Civil Law Lawyer and Firm Owner, 18th Judicial District Assistant District Attorney and Felony Trial Prosecutor, Former President Louisiana Assistant District Attorney's Association, B.Sc-Zoology, J.D

State Commissioner of Agriculture and Foresty
Democrats
1.Charlie Greer, Cattle and Quarter Horse Breeder, Retired Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry Program Director, Forest Enforcement Chief, Former Evangeline Parish Sheriff's Office Cheif Deputy and Chief Criminal Investigator, Former Governor Treen Advisor, Former Wildlife Enforcement Agent, Law Enforcement Institute Graduate

Republicans
1.Mike Strain,56, Veterinarian and Veterinary Hospital Owner and Cattle Rancher, Former St. Tammany Parish Sheriff's Office Reserve Lieutenant, Former Commissioner St Tamany Parish Fire District 12, B.Sc- Pre Veterinary Medicine, Doctor of Veterinary Medicine, State Representative 1999-2007 and Chair Rural Caucus, Incumbent 2007-

2.Jamie LaBranche, Medicinal Horticulturalist, Licensed Arborist and Horticulturalist, 2011 Democratic Nominee (27.8% of vote)

Green
1.Adrian "Ace" Juttner,69, Owner Adrian's Tree Service (Currently involved in Tree Pest Control, Chestnut Honey Production and Tax Loss for Tree Consulting), Former Hunt Wesson Foods Chemist and Lab Technician, B.Sc-Forest Management, M.Sc- Forestry (Forest Pathology)

State Insurance Commissioner
Democrats
1.Donald Hodge,35, Consumer Advocacy and Public Interest Law Lawyer and Firm Owner, Former Catholic Charities Legal and Social Service Advocate, B.A-Political Science, M.A-Liberal Arts, J.D, MPA, 2011 Nominee (32.5% of vote)

2.Charlotte McDaniel McGehee,42, Employment and Family Law Lawyer and Firm Owner, Catholic Youth Ministry Teacher, B.A-History, J.D, Party Endorsed Candidate

Republican
1.Jim Donelon,70, Lawyer and Chief Deputy Commissioner Louisiana Department of Insurance, Former Governor Executive Counselor, Colonel Louisiana National Guard and JAG, B.A-, J.D, Chair Jefferson Parish Council  (Democrat 1976-1981), State Representative 1982-2001, 1980 U.S Representative Nominee, 1998 U.S Senate Nominee (vs John Breaux), 1999 Jefferson Parish Judge Candidate, Incumbent 2006- (won special election)

2.Matt Parker, Auto Collision Repair Business Owner, Former Air Force Veteran

[Ebsy]

Vitter probably just needs to scrape together around 20% of the vote to make it into the runoff. We know you can do it little guy!

[Xing]

Only to tonight will we have a clear idea of just how much Vitter has been damaged recently. If he easily makes the runoff, then he really hasn't taken that much damage, and has a good chance of winning. If he just barely makes it, then the damage is real, and Edwards would really be in good shape. If Vitter loses to Dardenne or Angelle, I think he's probably gone from the senate after 2016, likely due to a primary challenge. Dardenne or Angelle would be modest favorites against Edwards.

tl;dr
If Vitter easily makes the runoff -> Likely Vitter
If Vitter barely makes the runoff -> Lean Edwards
If Vitter fails to make the runoff -> Lean Dardenne/Angelle, and Vitter is toast in 2016

[gespb19]

With it being a jungle primary, what parishes does Edwards NOT win? Livingston and St Tammany come to mind and maybe Bossier?

[Miles]

^ Yep, probably a few smaller ones as well. These are the parishes that gave Mary Landrieu less than 25% in either primary or runoff last year:



There's a competitive R-on-R Senate race in West Carroll parish (featuring Vance McAllister!), so I think it votes R in the Gov race as well.

Maness outpolled Landrieu in Grant and LaSalle parishes, so I bet those vote R as well.

The handful of parishes along the Sabine River and Gulf Coast are more ancestrally D than northern LA, so Edwards may have a higher floor there than Landrieu.

[/]

When will the results begin to come in?

[Miles]

^ The polls close at 9 ET. I suspect we'll get at least some results by the next hour.

[The Other Castro]

How large of a percentage would Vitter need to get in the jungle primary to be considered having easily made the runoff?

[Miles]

^ I'd say if he keeps Dardenne and Angelle both <20%, that would be a good sign for him.

It also sort of depends how well he does in the other candidate's base regions. If he's relatively close to or surpassing Dardenne in metro Baton Rouge parishes, for example, that would look good.

Basically, for the Republicans, the regional breakdown should be something like:

New Orleans - Vitter
Baton Rouge - Dardenne
Acadiana - Angelle

The north is sort of up for grabs. Vitter and Dardenne have an advantage over Angelle there though, as they've both run statewide before.

[IceSpear]

I have a hard time believing the diaper baby is actually going to lose. Even if he goes into the runoff heavily behind, he'll just need to run a few "Edwards = Obama!11!!!!" ads for a comfortable win. The Brownback template.

Here's hoping I'm wrong though.

[Miles]

I don't watch any TV shows, but Ian Somerhalder from The Vampire Diaries gave Edwards a last minute celebrity shot-out.

[The Other Castro]

I have a hard time believing the diaper baby is actually going to lose. Even if he goes into the runoff heavily behind, he'll just need to run a few "Edwards = Obama!11!!!!" ads for a comfortable win. The Brownback template.

Here's hoping I'm wrong though.

That card is getting old, and the only word worse than "Obama" or "Democrat" now in Louisiana seems to be "Vitter".

[Mr.Phips]

I have a hard time believing the diaper baby is actually going to lose. Even if he goes into the runoff heavily behind, he'll just need to run a few "Edwards = Obama!11!!!!" ads for a comfortable win. The Brownback template.

Here's hoping I'm wrong though.

That card is getting old, and the only word worse than "Obama" or "Democrat" now in Louisiana seems to be "Vitter".

Yeah, because as a governor, Edwards could totally vote to support Obama's policies in Congress. 

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls closing in 2 hours and 15 minutes.

AP Results Page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/LA_Page_1024.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

AOSHQDD is covering this, but their results page isn't up yet.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I wouldn't be sorry if Edwards won (either tonight or in a runoff), but I'm sure hoping that Guillory wins the race for lieutenant governor.

[gespb19]

Results by parish?

[Miles]

^ I'd be surprised if Guillory make it out of single-digits.

[Miles]

Results by parish?

The SOS site has it.

We're doing parish-level as AOS too, whenever they get it up.

[/]

So 50 more minutes?

[Miles]

^ Yep. I hope AOS gets its graphic up. They're starting to worry me...

[rpryor03]

I wouldn't be sorry if Edwards won (either tonight or in a runoff), but I'm sure hoping that Guillory wins the race for lieutenant governor.

Alas, your Uncle Tom will likely not even make the runoff tonight. Sorry bud.

Uncle Tom? Really? Really? Really?

Come on, Turk. Don't be that guy. The term "Uncle Tom" is just racist and wrong to use.
BTW, go St. Sen. Guillory!

[DINGO Joe]

Voted around 3PM.  I was #110 which means very low turnout. New Orleano Uptown precinct, white upper middle income, actually part of Vitter's old congressional district but more of a Landrieu than R precinct.  Very low energy campaign, only Edwards had any yard signs, but no door knockers or GOTV by anybody. Weather was still OK, bad weather in the North and West parts of the state.  Only R I voted for was Caldwell because
 I can't stand the tea party boy.