1976: Reagan/Dole vs. Carter/Church

[TDAS04]

In 1976, Ronald Reagan does slightly better in the Republican primaries, and obtains just enough delegates to take the nomination away from President Ford.  With no need to promise moderates a Schweiker Vice Presidency, Reagan goes with Bob Dole.

On the Democratic side, Carter obtains the nomination the same way as he actually did, but Walter Mondale suddenly and tragically passes away.  Carter then selects Senator Frank Church of Idaho as his running mate.

Who would win?  What would the electoral map look like?

[lincolnwall]

Reagan would be a shiny new face for the party and would ridicule Carter's outsider status, similar to what he did IRL 1980, just on different issues. He would also not carry the public resentment that Ford did for pardoning Nixon.

Carter only won IRL because of Ford's mistakes, so barring some major Reagan scandal I think it would be an easy victory for Reagan/Dole over Carter/Church. Only two of the closest states need to tip towards Reagan to give him the victory, and the map would be somewhere in between RL 1976 and 1980. Carter would only do well in the South, and probably Maryland and Minnesota. Actually I'll give Church the 'favorite son' boost in Idaho too, just enough to tip it to the D column.

I can't post maps yet, but I'm guessing Reagan/Dole 376 to Carter/Church 142.

[TDAS04]

Reagan would be a shiny new face for the party and would ridicule Carter's outsider status, similar to what he did IRL 1980, just on different issues. He would also not carry the public resentment that Ford did for pardoning Nixon.

Carter only won IRL because of Ford's mistakes, so barring some major Reagan scandal I think it would be an easy victory for Reagan/Dole over Carter/Church. Only two of the closest states need to tip towards Reagan to give him the victory, and the map would be somewhere in between RL 1976 and 1980. Carter would only do well in the South, and probably Maryland and Minnesota. Actually I'll give Church the 'favorite son' boost in Idaho too, just enough to tip it to the D column.

I can't post maps yet, but I'm guessing Reagan/Dole 376 to Carter/Church 142.

Thank you for your well-thought-out analysis.  I disagree with most of it, however.  Overall, you're too generous to Reagan.  Unlike 1980, Reagan would not have had the advantage of challenging such an unpopular incumbent.  Carter was much more of a fresh face in 1976.  Reagan was viewed at the time as potentially too conservative to win; even in 1980, he received only 51% of the popular vote (with Anderson taking 7%). 

On the other hand, you're vastly overestimating Church's ability to deliver Idaho.  Ford beat Carter in Idaho by 23%, but Ford was crushed by Reagan in the Idaho primary 3:1.  Reagan was much more popular in the West than Ford, but Ford still carried the West against Carter anyway.  Maybe Church could have delivered Oregon.

Anyway, this is a tough one; such a race could easily have gone either way.  We'll talk more later.

[Indy Texas]

Reagan's populist conservative appeal helps him peel away enough conservative Democrats to carry Texas, Florida, Louisiana and the Carolinas. He does not make more inroads in the South due to a combination of Carter's regional ties and the fact that the fusion of the Religious Right to the GOP still had not fully crystallized by this point. However, this comes at the expense of urban and suburban moderates in non-Southern states; thus, Carter picks up Washington, Oregon, Michigan, New Jersey, Connecticut and Maine.

Carter/Church - 288
Reagan/Dole - 250

Reagan attempts a rematch in 1980, but the fact that he has already run and lost feeds the perception among primary voters that he is too old and opportunity has passed him by.
Former President Ford expresses a desire to "pull a Cleveland" and return to office, and enters the race as the Establishment pick; the conservative wing of the party finds itself split between Bob Dole and Jesse Helms. Ford wins the nomination and selects New York congressman Jack Kemp as his running mate.
In November, Ford is able to neutralize his pardoning of Nixon as an issue as voters have moved on to more pressing matters like the Iranian hostage crisis, inflation and high energy prices. He returns to office for a final full term.

Ford/Kemp - 382
Carter/Church - 156

[TDAS04]

Lloyd Bentsen's Ghost--why don't you have Reagan winning Mississippi?  Carter beat Ford there by only 2%.

[lincolnwall]

On the other hand, you're vastly overestimating Church's ability to deliver Idaho.  Ford beat Carter in Idaho by 23%, but Ford was crushed by Reagan in the Idaho primary 3:1.  Reagan was much more popular in the West than Ford, but Ford still carried the West against Carter anyway.  Maybe Church could have delivered Oregon.

Indeed, I forgot to add in there "I'll be incredibly generous".

[Michaelf7777777]

Jimmy Carter/ Frank Church - 288 EV's
Ronald Reagan/ Bob Dole - 250 EV's

[Rooney]

1976 was not a year in which any Republican could have won. Not since 1932 had their been such a headwind against a political party. One of the reasons why Reagan was able to make such a spirited challenge against Ford was because the incumbent faced so many challenges from the national malaise, to high inflation, a dodgy economy and a party tainted by scandal.

Reagan as the 1976 Republican nominee has certain strengths and weaknesses that Ford did not have. The greatest strength he would have brought to the ticket was his ability to communicate and debate effectively. There would be no "soviet domination" line in the second debate with Carter. The selection of Dole as Reagan's running-mate is a decent choice in terms of softening Reagan's strong anti-Soviet image. Senator Dole was a huge proponent of Midwest grain sales to the USSR. However, Dole is not the perfect choice as he was a defense hawk and called detente a "myth."

The weaknesses the Reagan brings to the 1976 races are numerous. First, his brand of hardline rightism, especially fundamentalist religion fueled rightism, probably wouldn't sell in 1976. The Moral Majority was not founded until 1979 thus I cannot imagine this being an asset. Additionally, without the Soviets in Afghanistan and hostages in Tehran the Reagan Doctrine of peace through strength could easily have came off as unnecessary belligerence. Being the age of Nixon, Kissinger and Ford the idea that the "Soviets have their way and we have ours" was popular and the neoconservative theories as put forward by Wolfowitz and his hyped up Team B report on the Soviet military had yet to become gospel to the major media outlets. That report was not reported until after Carter's win IRL.

Reagan's anti-government zeal is difficult to gauge. On one hand this is a time when government corruption had been on vulgar display as well as the failures of centralized planning. One might argue that these failures would help Reagan. However, Lyndon Johnson had corruption (Bobby Baker) and governmental policy failures when he creamed Goldwater in 1964 and he was far more controversial than the sunny, grinning Governor Carter. Seeing how Carter/Church can hardly be tagged as a "big government Great Society" ticket much of Reagan's anti-government assaults would be nullified.

Seeing how Reagan's two big issues in 1980 (the Soviet threat and government failure) are weakened in 1976 I cannot see how he wins. My map: 

Jimmy Carter/Frank Church (D): 362 EV; 52% of the PV
Ronald Reagan/Bob Dole (R): 176 EV; 48% of the PV

[TDAS04]

Finally, here is my own map.

Carter/Church:  336
Reagan/Dole:  202

1976 wasn't Reagan's time yet.