The Coming Evangelical Collapse

[DC Al Fine]

Evangelicalism is set for a drop off similar to the mainline Protestant churches

Taking some points from the above article, evangelicalism is set for a big drop off in the next few decades largely because they are doing a terrible job of retaining their young people.

While I think the long term future is bright for the religious in general, due to their higher birth rates, I'm not optimistic about evangelicals. Evangelicals simply aren't doing a good job of producing young people who will stay in the faith. I don't think this is all to do with their position on evolution (for every reddit atheist type, there are many who just sort of fade away from the church), but rather they aren't producing a deep religious commitment built on a solid foundation.

Megachurches have fun events and a rocking band, but it is very easy to get lost in the shuffle. From my own experience in churches with <100 attendees/Sunday and >1000 attendees/Sunday, it was much easier to blow off activities in the latter. Going to smaller, more community oriented churches makes it harder to drop out, since your friends/relatives/community is there.

Evangelicals also aren't producing very knowledgeable young people. These people are prone to doubts/leaving the church over questions which there are excellent answers for. Case in point: I know a Baptist kid who was conflicted over the apparent conflict between the Bible and science. He was a YEC and was astonished when I brought up theistic evolution, old earth creationism etc. Answers to doubters questions are out there, but they aren't mentioned in evangelical churches.

The church going landscape in a century will be increasingly dominated by groups with high birth rates and solid retention rates. Expect the white weekly service attenders to be mostly Orthodox Jews, orthodox Calvinists*, and traditional Catholics. I also predict a relatively strong, heavily influenced by Pentecostals, evangelicalism will be popular among minorities.

Thoughts?

* Full disclosure: I am an orthodox Calvinist.

[minionofmidas]

I can see where he's coming from but consider it a very strong indicator of stupidity to make predictions that far into the future.

[Beet]

I can see where he's coming from but consider it a very strong indicator of stupidity to make predictions that far into the future.

Doesn't that depend on the nature of the prediction?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I wish I could say this would be the perfect opportunity for progressive Christians to take over the religious scene, but unfortunately it likely won't be that easy even with this new information at hand.  We seem to have entered a realm in which self-described liberals feel they have no need for religion, and those who do have faith are heavily concentrated in the very conservative denominations.

[Joe Biden 2020]

It may decline, but it will never go away.  God will leave a remnant in every generation that are fully in tune with Scripture.

[minionofmidas]

I can see where he's coming from but consider it a very strong indicator of stupidity to make predictions that far into the future.

Doesn't that depend on the nature of the prediction?

Obviously, to an extent. But only to an extent. You can't extrapolate any trends that long into the future, you know the calculations will be thrown completely out of whack by an unforeseeable event at least once during that timespan. Unless you're talking something really basic like the half-life of a radioactive isotope.

[afleitch]

One can only hope.  As a doctrine it's not kind to me so I won't lament it's demise.

[memphis]

Very doubtful. They are the future of American Christianity.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wish I could say this would be the perfect opportunity for progressive Christians to take over the religious scene, but unfortunately it likely won't be that easy even with this new information at hand.  We seem to have entered a realm in which self-described liberals feel they have no need for religion, and those who do have faith are heavily concentrated in the very conservative denominations.

This opening has been recognized and is being taken advantage of: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_church

[RI]

I wish I could say this would be the perfect opportunity for progressive Christians to take over the religious scene, but unfortunately it likely won't be that easy even with this new information at hand.  We seem to have entered a realm in which self-described liberals feel they have no need for religion, and those who do have faith are heavily concentrated in the very conservative denominations.

Progressives have much too low of birth rates for their own good.

[DC Al Fine]

I wish I could say this would be the perfect opportunity for progressive Christians to take over the religious scene, but unfortunately it likely won't be that easy even with this new information at hand.  We seem to have entered a realm in which self-described liberals feel they have no need for religion, and those who do have faith are heavily concentrated in the very conservative denominations.

This opening has been recognized and is being taken advantage of: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_church

BRTD, from what little of I've heard of the emerging church, they seem to be doing a good job of bringing in new converts. How are they in the getting people married and having kids side of things?

[DC Al Fine]

Very doubtful. They are the future of American Christianity.

Any evidence to back that up?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I wish I could say this would be the perfect opportunity for progressive Christians to take over the religious scene, but unfortunately it likely won't be that easy even with this new information at hand.  We seem to have entered a realm in which self-described liberals feel they have no need for religion, and those who do have faith are heavily concentrated in the very conservative denominations.

This opening has been recognized and is being taken advantage of: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_church

BRTD, from what little of I've heard of the emerging church, they seem to be doing a good job of bringing in new converts. How are they in the getting people married and having kids side of things?

From what little I've heard, good but not great. BRTD's wing of the emerging church movement seems like it would probably be among the worse at that.

[Blue3]

Very doubtful. They are the future of American Christianity.

More like the past, they're old news. Peaked around 2005.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wish I could say this would be the perfect opportunity for progressive Christians to take over the religious scene, but unfortunately it likely won't be that easy even with this new information at hand.  We seem to have entered a realm in which self-described liberals feel they have no need for religion, and those who do have faith are heavily concentrated in the very conservative denominations.

This opening has been recognized and is being taken advantage of: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_church

BRTD, from what little of I've heard of the emerging church, they seem to be doing a good job of bringing in new converts. How are they in the getting people married and having kids side of things?

Not as bad as you'd think, but not as good as one would want for healthy growth, I'll give you that. However for new movements that's not as big of a deal since they can pick up growth from elsewhere. You mentioned disgruntled evangelicals in your post. Well where are many of them going?

Let's look at the Catholic Church's problem. Though the stereotypical large Catholic family is a thing of the past, its members still probably have a birth rate at least higher than average. It loses 1/3 of all its members raised in it, but in the US that's not particularly high nor a problem. Plenty of evangelical churches have similar numbers and some mainline ones are even worse. The difference is that both of them pick up a significant number of converts, which in the case of evangelicals more than makes up the difference, and for mainline churches at least stems the bleeding, which would be FAR worse if they had a conversion rate like the Catholic Church's. In other words conversion is perhaps more important than birth rate, since you can't guarantee all of those kids are going to stick around.

To use a crude and stereotypical of me, yet actually fitting in this example, look at my whole "scene". The birth rate is probably significantly lower than it is amongst people in that age range nationwide, yes. Not very many people are "born into" the scene. Did it die out in the mid-80s? No, because it keeps getting "converts" and keeps growing based on that.

To use another crude analogy even though I'd rather not make this comparison: Does Scientology rely on high birth rates of its members for its growth?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Very doubtful. They are the future of American Christianity.

More like the past, they're old news. Peaked around 2005.

They will never be old news.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Evangelicals won't collapse, but the " white evangelical=Republican" correlation will get weaker over time, I imagine.

[DC Al Fine]

I wish I could say this would be the perfect opportunity for progressive Christians to take over the religious scene, but unfortunately it likely won't be that easy even with this new information at hand.  We seem to have entered a realm in which self-described liberals feel they have no need for religion, and those who do have faith are heavily concentrated in the very conservative denominations.

This opening has been recognized and is being taken advantage of: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_church

BRTD, from what little of I've heard of the emerging church, they seem to be doing a good job of bringing in new converts. How are they in the getting people married and having kids side of things?

Not as bad as you'd think, but not as good as one would want for healthy growth, I'll give you that. However for new movements that's not as big of a deal since they can pick up growth from elsewhere. You mentioned disgruntled evangelicals in your post. Well where are many of them going?

Let's look at the Catholic Church's problem. Though the stereotypical large Catholic family is a thing of the past, its members still probably have a birth rate at least higher than average. It loses 1/3 of all its members raised in it, but in the US that's not particularly high nor a problem. Plenty of evangelical churches have similar numbers and some mainline ones are even worse. The difference is that both of them pick up a significant number of converts, which in the case of evangelicals more than makes up the difference, and for mainline churches at least stems the bleeding, which would be FAR worse if they had a conversion rate like the Catholic Church's. In other words conversion is perhaps more important than birth rate, since you can't guarantee all of those kids are going to stick around.

To use a crude and stereotypical of me, yet actually fitting in this example, look at my whole "scene". The birth rate is probably significantly lower than it is amongst people in that age range nationwide, yes. Not very many people are "born into" the scene. Did it die out in the mid-80s? No, because it keeps getting "converts" and keeps growing based on that.

To use another crude analogy even though I'd rather not make this comparison: Does Scientology rely on high birth rates of its members for its growth?

BRTD, I tend to think conversion works up to a point in growth. The Emerging movement hasn't reached that point. Unless the culture is changed, some people just won't be Christians. The Emerging churches are currently picking off the low hanging fruit (disgruntled evangelicals, irreligious looking for meaning) but they will eventually run out of this fruit and have to start going for harder to reach people. At that point they'll need to focus on having babies and retention in order to maintain their growth rates.

The Emerging movement is about where Evangelicals were in say 1965. Rapidly growing due to picking up disgruntled mainlines. Now they are having issues growing because they have retention issues.

Not that I think this is a short term issue for the Emerging churches, but in the long term (say 20-50 years from now) it will need to be dealt with.

[pbrower2a]

It may decline, but it will never go away.  God will leave a remnant in every generation that are fully in tune with Scripture.

Using Scripture to deny science -- and God does things with science -- creates a contradiction. The Fundamentalist attitude that Humanity is not only flawed but depraved creates a pathological view of human nature that leads one either to self-fulfilling prophecy or to rebellion.

[Central Lake]

Eight years later there doesn't seem to be large scale movement. (in terms of percentage of the population)

[Biden his time]

Eight years later there doesn't seem to be large scale movement. (in terms of percentage of the population)

Yep, the facts are that mainlines are the ones who are really collapsing



Image Link

In fact, Evangelicals are just as religious as they were in 2014, whereas religiosity has dropped among all other large groups. Just check it:

The percentage of Evangelicals who say religion is "very important" in their lives has increased from 79% to 80% between 2014 and 2021, while among the general population the figure dropped from 53% to 41%.

The percentage of Evangelicals who pray every day has stayed stable at exactly 79% between 2014 and 2021, while among the general population it went from 55% to 45%.

Source for figures is Pew Research Center

[Former President tack50]

Evangelicalism is set for a drop off similar to the mainline Protestant churches

Taking some points from the above article, evangelicalism is set for a big drop off in the next few decades largely because they are doing a terrible job of retaining their young people.

While I think the long term future is bright for the religious in general, due to their higher birth rates, I'm not optimistic about evangelicals. Evangelicals simply aren't doing a good job of producing young people who will stay in the faith. I don't think this is all to do with their position on evolution (for every reddit atheist type, there are many who just sort of fade away from the church), but rather they aren't producing a deep religious commitment built on a solid foundation.

I realize this is an old post, but do higher birth rates really matter? (assuming you are talking about the US and/or Canada here as opposed to any worldwide trends)

Having higher birth rates isn't worth that much if those kids aren't going to stay evangelical/religious. They are also not going to matter in Canada if all those young religious people happen to all be Christians in Subsaharan Africa and muslims in the Middle East

[DC Al Fine]

Evangelicalism is set for a drop off similar to the mainline Protestant churches

Taking some points from the above article, evangelicalism is set for a big drop off in the next few decades largely because they are doing a terrible job of retaining their young people.

While I think the long term future is bright for the religious in general, due to their higher birth rates, I'm not optimistic about evangelicals. Evangelicals simply aren't doing a good job of producing young people who will stay in the faith. I don't think this is all to do with their position on evolution (for every reddit atheist type, there are many who just sort of fade away from the church), but rather they aren't producing a deep religious commitment built on a solid foundation.

I realize this is an old post, but do higher birth rates really matter? (assuming you are talking about the US and/or Canada here as opposed to any worldwide trends)

Having higher birth rates isn't worth that much if those kids aren't going to stay evangelical/religious. They are also not going to matter in Canada if all those young religious people happen to all be Christians in Subsaharan Africa and muslims in the Middle East

I think I was talking about birth rates globally... I think. It was eight years ago

[Samof94]

Eight years later there doesn't seem to be large scale movement. (in terms of percentage of the population)

Yep, the facts are that mainlines are the ones who are really collapsing



Image Link

In fact, Evangelicals are just as religious as they were in 2014, whereas religiosity has dropped among all other large groups. Just check it:

The percentage of Evangelicals who say religion is "very important" in their lives has increased from 79% to 80% between 2014 and 2021, while among the general population the figure dropped from 53% to 41%.

The percentage of Evangelicals who pray every day has stayed stable at exactly 79% between 2014 and 2021, while among the general population it went from 55% to 45%.

Source for figures is Pew Research Center

That correlation means that secular parents rarely have religious children.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Eight years later there doesn't seem to be large scale movement. (in terms of percentage of the population)

Yep, the facts are that mainlines are the ones who are really collapsing



Image Link

In fact, Evangelicals are just as religious as they were in 2014, whereas religiosity has dropped among all other large groups. Just check it:

The percentage of Evangelicals who say religion is "very important" in their lives has increased from 79% to 80% between 2014 and 2021, while among the general population the figure dropped from 53% to 41%.

The percentage of Evangelicals who pray every day has stayed stable at exactly 79% between 2014 and 2021, while among the general population it went from 55% to 45%.

Source for figures is Pew Research Center

That correlation means that secular parents rarely have religious children.

Not when they're teenagers no. Adult conversion is far more common including young adults and college aged. Like do only 2% of people raised Catholic become Protestant? The conversion rate increases in adulthood.