2014 Gubernatorial Predictions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Updated:
Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Jan Brewer (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D Gain)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Bill Daley (D hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: LePage (R Hold)
Maryland: Michael Steele (R Gain)
Massachusetts: Mike Cupuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Schauer (D Gain)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Dem Gain
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You can make your map the way you want but you will be scored at the end. It is just for fun anyways.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daley will be running as the populist. Giving Chicago gaming by installing slots at two airports, not the big casino (des plaines and Elgin have one already) to fix education. Meanwhile, fix pension and rescind tax increases. All ideas Rutherford support but defund edu and give vouchers to private schools. And slow growth of spending. No need for him at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daley will be running as the populist. Giving Chicago gaming by installing slots at two airports, not the big casino (des plaines and Elgin have one already) to fix education. Meanwhile, fix pension and rescind tax increases. All ideas Rutherford support but defund edu and give vouchers to private schools. And slow growth of spending. No need for him at all.

I assume Quinn will defeat him in the primaries.

There is no division in Illinois. We want to win badly and we will unite behind our nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Solid D
Pennsylvania
Maine (Thank god. Good riddance, Paul LePage)

There's a chance Dems might pickup in:
Michigan
Florida

Solid Republican pickup:

Arkansas

There's a chance for a Republican pickup:

Colorado
Hawaii
Illinois

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hutchinson R+1
Hickenlooper
Crist D+1
Ige
Quinn
Michaud D+1
Schauer D+1
Wolf D+1
Tavarez D+1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bruce Rauner has downstate support. He doesn't have the suburban vote he needs to beat Dem Cook county machine.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

King def Martinez D+1.  NM tossup
Schauer def Synder D+1 MI tossup
Crist def Scott D+1 FL tossup
Tavares wins D+1 RI
Wolf def Corbett D+1 PA
Michaud def LePage D+1 ME

Hutchinson def Ross R+1

25D-25R
3-5 seat net gain

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It isn't a tossup yet, I am being bold in predicting Martinez to lose just like IL is a super Dem state, so is NM. King's father Bruce King did serve as Gov in 1970 and she is now only 5 pts ahead. We will see if the race develops later.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Any candidate in Boston who is connected to Christie or Romney like Healey or Scott Brown or Baker aren't gonna get far in Boston or NH.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mary Burke def Walker
Crist def Scott
Michaud def LePage
Schauer def Synder
Wolf def Corbett
Raimondo wins RI

25D-25R

Hutchinson def Ross

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems pickup Ga,FL,KS, WI, Pa. RI and ME

R's pickup ARK

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dem IL, Pa, RI and ME

Tossup FL, MI, CO and ARK

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People are mad about Quinn's performance. But, it is also Obama's homestate.

NM and MI as well as FL should be on the closely watched list. But IL will be close for Quinn once Cook comes in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems win WI, NM and FL as well as Pa and ME

R's win ARK, CT or HI

3-4 seat net D gain

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK Dem pickup
AR Ross def Hutchinson
FL Crist def Scott D pickup
IL Quinn def Rauner
ME Michaud def LePage D pickup
PA Wolf def Corbett D pickup
RI Raimondo wins
WI Burke  def Walker D pickup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker 34
Parnell 31

Hick 53
Beauprez 47


King 50.5
Martinez 50

Scott 50
Crist 48

Ige        50
Alona    49

Quinn 47
Rauner 45

Michaud 40
Lepage    36

Schauer 50
Snyder   48


Wolf      59
Corbett 38