2014 Gubernatorial Predictions

[LeBron]

Nevada: Barbara Buckley (D Gain) [I think it will be close in the polls, and she pulls off an upset.]
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D Gain)
Texas: Wendy Davis (D Gain)

2014 will be a Democratic year, but probably not in Texas and Nevada. I'm not counting out Davis, but with Abbott running, Texas is really a long shot for the Democrats and they'll have to wait until at least 2018 (maybe 2022 if Abbott would seek a 2nd term). As for Nevada, Sandoval's sort of like Gov. Martinez (even though ones pro-life, the other isn't). They're both Hispanic which significantly helps them among their base next year for re-election in NV and NM plus I just don't see anything the Democrats could use against Gov. Sandoval that could decrease his popularity enough to make this a lean Democratic race let alone anywhere close to a tossup since he's leading by about 23 points. And in Ohio, Ted Strickland has already declared he's not running, but he has endorsed a very formidable and progressive candidate in Ed FitzGerald who still has a pretty good chance at unseating Kasich.

@IllegalOperation - Doubt it. Had that been Tom Holland with the mid 30's approval rating, it would be a sure pickup for the GOP, but just because Brownback has the name "Republican" in front of his affiliation in a state like Kansas, he'll survive.

[LeBron]

Prediction: 18 Democratic wins/18 Republican wins
After 2014: 25 Governor's seats held by Democrats (Counting Virginia)/25 Governor's seats held by Republicans

Net gain: D +5

Alabama Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Robert J. Bentley (R) - Safe R hold
Alaska Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R hold
Arizona Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Ken Bennett) (TOSSUP)
Arkansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Asa Hutchinson) (TOSSUP)
California Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D hold
Colorado Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Dan Malloy (D)
Florida Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Charlie Crist) (TOSSUP)
Georgia Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) - Safe D hold
Idaho Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Butch Otter (R) - Safe R hold (Surprise, surprise....)
Illinois Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Pat Quinn (D) (TOSSUP)
Iowa Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Sam Brownback (R)
Maine Margin of Victory: 30% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mike Michaud) (TOSSUP)
Maryland Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Anthony Brown)
Massachusetts Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD)
Michigan Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mark Schauer) (TOSSUP)
Minnesota Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D hold
Nebraska Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for the Republican candidate (TBD) - Safe R hold
Nevada Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D hold
New Mexico Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Susana Martinez (R)
New York Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D hold
Ohio Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Ed FitzGerald) (TOSSUP)
Oklahoma Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R hold
Oregon Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D hold
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Allyson Schwartz) (TOSSUP)
Rhode Island Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD)
South Carolina Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Nikki Haley (R) (TOSSUP)
South Dakota Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R hold
Tennessee Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R hold
Texas Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Republican candidate (Greg Abbott)
Vermont Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D hold
Wisconsin Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Matt Mead (R)


Arizona - With Campbell dropping out and Bennett running, Arizona Republicans really don't even need the incumbent Brewer to hold onto the seat. I don't think the Hispanic population will be enough in 2014 yet for a Democrat to win the Governor's seat until 2022. Tilts R.

Arkansas - Ross might be a Bluedog, but everything is favoring Hutchinson at this point. It's a midterm year with higher white turnout, there's no incumbency advantage this time like Beebe had, and Hutchinson is holding an 8 point lead over Ross. I still think it could be a tossup, but it favors the Republicans here as well.

Colorado - The fact that Sen. Mark Udall will be on the same ballot will help out Gov. Hickenlooper a lot. The only real threat he even faces at this point is Tancredo and there's not even a guarantee he'll win the primary. Colorado's dissatisfaction will probably blow over by the 2014 election and by then, Hickenlooper should have his approval back in the 50's guaranteeing him re-election. Leans D for now.

Connecticut/Illinois - If Malloy and Quinn can beat their Republican opponents once, they can beat them again this time being the incumbents. Their approvals are bound to get better and I also doubt that the Quinnipiac Foley +3 poll or the PPP Rutherford +4 poll are all that accurate either anymore. Tilt D.

Florida - We need Crist, period. Nelson and Sink have dropped out and I doubt Nan Rich could pull it off, so Charlie Crist is the Democratic Party's last hope at beating Scott. Leans D if Crist is the nominee, Tilts R if Nan Rich is the nominee.

Georgia - It would be best if the Democrats just gave up on this race altogether and wait until 2018 when Deal is term-limited to get someone like Barrow or Reed to run. You guys are better off working on this Senate race a lot more because that's at least winnable. I don't even think Carter or Holcomb will come close if either one of them decides to run. Safe R.

Iowa - All depends on Branstad. Not even Culver can beat him, but if Branstad finally steps down for good and Reynolds runs, this is a great race to watch then even if the worst is assumed by the Iowa Democrats (Culver declines a run and Olson or Hatch becomes nominee). Likely R w/ a Branstad run, Tilts R with a Reynolds run.

Kansas - With Paul Davis in, this makes the race interesting. They might be heavily Republican, but Davis is backed by the popular Sebelius and he has great name recognition as the Democratic leader of the Kansas House of Reps on top of an unpopular Brownback. Still lean R though.

Maine - Paul "Windmills are a Conspiracy" LePage is his own worst enemy. He's literally asking to be unseated next year in Maine so he can try and be in Congress in the future which are just his own petty thoughts. Cutler shouldn't matter at this point and while I like his views more than Michaud's, Michaud is better than nothing. Tossup/Tilt D.

Maryland/Massachusetts - The Republicans really don't stand a chance at either one given Brown/Ulman and Coakley or Capuano are great candidates for the Democrats on top of both states being reliably Democratic (despite the history Massachusetts has of electing GOP Governor's). I still completely disagree with Sabato though about these either being a "lean" or a complete "tossup" and I'm going with Cook on these when I say they're likely Democratic.

Michigan - 2 things: Right to Work and Detroit. Snyder might have the advantage currently, but the polls are flopping all over the place with some having Rep. Schauer leading and others having Gov. Snyder leading. This is just a pure, pure tossup and since I watch MSNBC regularly, I expect Ed Schultz to actually play a huge part in trying to get the Michigan electorate out there and throwing out Snyder. #UnionRights #EdShow

Nevada - When Buckley dropped out, this race was dropped to. There's just no other Democrat that could beat someone as popular and moderate as Gov. Sandoval especially given his good relations with the large Hispanic base there. Safe R.

New Mexico - To be fair, even though her approval rating is high, a poll for this race hasn't been done in over a year and Attorney General Gary King is a great candidate which Nevada can't offer. It's Lean R for now until a new poll comes out that says otherwise.

Ohio - Just like in 2010, this is going to be one of the closest and most brutal Governor's races the country has to offer. Ed FitzGerald is campaigning a lot harder than Ohioans thought he would and is attacking the state of Ohio's economy. 47th in job creation, unemployment rose from 7.0% to 7.3% in a matter of a few months, poverty's increasing, and he's focusing heavily on JobsOhio and Kasich's tax breaks for the wealthy. It's like a fuse almost. And that stick of dynamite will explode if Kasich attempts to pass that suicidal 6 week abortion ban bill into law which would just hand FitzGerald the election. Total tossup at this time though (aside from Sabato who are stupidly calling it likely Republican still).

Pennsylvania - A 16% approval?! Really? That's nearly as bad as Congress.....leans D.

Rhode Island - Whether it's Raimondo, Taveras, or maybe Roberts, the withdrawal of Gov. Chafee from the race ruined what little chances Republicans had here. Likely D.

South Carolina - Haley automatically benefits being the incumbent in a red state, but Sheheen is a great candidate. He came close in 2010 at winning despite it being the GOP year, it being SC, and being on the same ballot as Sen. Jim DeMint. Plus with that recent SSM comment, although I don't support his view on it, I feel Sheheen would be the kind of guy who would support same-sex marriage, but if he did, it would ruin any chances he has. Sheheen can't win it, but Haley can ruin it for herself to make it so he wins. Tilt R/Leans R

Texas - No matter what Wendy Davis' decision is come October 3rd, it won't make a difference. Going in, as long as Perry or Abbott ended up running this was guaranteed to be a strong R hold. 2022. Safe R.

Wisconsin - If Barca considers a run, this race will be competitive, but very hard for a Democrat to win nonetheless with Feingold opting out and the Walker system. Leans R.

Wyoming - There's only 1 possible way Democrats can win this. Mead opts out of a run or is thrown out of office by the courts and Cindy Hill is unopposed in the GOP primary. And since Freudenthal can't run, the only hope is that Democratic businessman, Gary Trauner, would make a run against Hill. However, since that's highly unlikely...safe R.

[LeBron]

Is Ohio going to be a state that has a handfull of one term governors over the next few terms?

Before Strickland or Kasich ever took office, a lot of our Governor's (Taft, Voinovich, Celeste) all were two-term incumbents. And it's not like Governor Strickland's one-term was expected because he lost a close, close election by only 2 points. If they can actually do their job right the first 4 years without getting in any sort of scandal or losing hundreds of thousands of jobs, then a Governor, Republican or Democrat, can survive re-election in Ohio. I think Kasich will fall making it 2 in a row, but when Ed FitzGerald goes up for re-election in 2018, he could very well break that trend.

[LeBron]

Alabama: Gov. Robert Bentley (R) - Safe R
Alaska: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) - Tilt R (We really need some polling here)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) - Tossup
California: Gov. Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) - Lean D
Connecticut: Gov. Dan Malloy (D) - Tilt D
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) - Lean D
Georgia: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) - Lean R
Hawaii: Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) - Likely D
Idaho: Gov. Butch Otter (R) - Safe R (Watch the nominee end up being a mediator or real estate agent lol)
Illinois: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) - Tilt D
Iowa: Gov. Terry Branstad (R) - Lean R
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) - Tossup (It will be close, but Davis has an early 4 point advantage which I think can hold)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) - Tossup
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) - Safe D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) - Likely D
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) - Tossup (1. The large Snyder leads are absurd  2. Schauer like FitzGerald just has a name recognition problem he can solve)
Minnesota: Gov. Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D
Nebraska: Charlie Janssen (R) - Likely R
Nevada: Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) - Safe R
New Hampshire: Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D
New Mexico: Gov. Susana Martinez (R) - Lean R (King will be a strong challenger to her)
New York: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D
Ohio: Ed FitzGerald (D) - Tossup (As the Ohio economy grows worse, more people will shift towards FitzGerald as Kasich's approval goes lower into the 30s)
Oklahoma: Gov. Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R
Oregon: Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D) - Lean D
Rhode Island: Angel Taveras (D) - Likely D
South Carolina: Gov. Nikki Haley (R) - Tilt R (Two polls show Haley leads while two show Sheheen leads, but Haley has a small advantage)
South Dakota: Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R (Should be interesting to see if Sandlin runs)
Tennessee: Gov. Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) - Likely R
Vermont: Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) - Likely D (In case the Progressive Party throws in a candidate)
Wisconsin: Gov. Scott Walker (R) - Tossup (Along with OH and MI, this will be one of the closest)
Wyoming: Gov. Matt Mead (R) - Safe R

D+5, Democrats I'm predicting will hold 26 Governor seats and Republicans 21 seats after the 2014 midterms. After 2015 it might be the same to since Repubs. have a term-limited seat with a very unpopular Governor in Louisiana while there's a term-limited Democrat in GOP favoring Kentucky.

[LeBron]

Quinn is in elastic due to Obama coattails. He is gonna get Durbin to campaign for Quinn.
AR Hutchinson R pickup
Ca Brown
CO R pickup
CT Malloy
FL Crist
IL Quinn
ME Michard D pickup
MI Synder
NV Sandoval
NH Hassen
NY Cuomo
OH Fitzzy d pickup
Pa Schwartz d pickup
RI D pickup
WI Burke D pickup

Net change 5 seats

I'm not so sure about the Republican pickup in Colorado especially if Tancredo is the nominee, but I agree with everything else including Fitzy 2014!!!

@JerryArkansas, I'm predicting a lot of these based off of polls, the states of the economy, approvals, scandals, how well each candidate is known etc. and a lot of the things I mentioned here adhere to the benefit of gubernatorial Democratic nominees. Mainly only people in Schauer's district know who he is while only people in Cuyahoga County know who FitzGerald is and barely anyone knows who Burke is. Once they get ads out and running and run on positive, progressive, anti-Tea Party platforms, at least two of them will probably end of winning.

Mike Ross on the other hand has an uphill climb with Hutchinson having a 2 point lead over him when Beebe has a high approval. Pryor certainly won't help Ross on the ballot much and neither will Obama. I feel unless Ross gets Clinton's endorsement, it will definitely benefit Republicans to win back the Governorship.

[LeBron]

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) - Safe R (His toughest opposition will be in the primary anyways)

Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R (The GOP vote is being split quite a bit among all candidates, but Parnell will still win decisively)

Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) - Tossup (Whoever arises from the GOP primary will be weakened, but DuVal isn't the best Democratic challenger and the state is still taking time to shift)

Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) - Tossup (It will be close right down to the end, but it is Arkansas and as long as some anti-Obama politician has an "R' for their party affiliation, it could be that easy especially when Ross isn't an incumbent and is stuck on the ballot with Pryor)

California: Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D (Not that this race was in play to begin with, but Maldonado would have been a better candidate than Donnelly)

Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) - Likely D (Hickenlooper is recovering and unlike CO-Sen, the Republican bench is embarrassing)

Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) - Lean D (It really won't be that competitive even if Foley becomes the nominee since he beat him in 2010, the undecided will break for Malloy, and Malloy is becoming a nationally known and acclaimed Democratic star)

Florida: Charlie Crist (D) - Lean D (Scott isn't leading in a single poll and despite liberals being unhappy with him, he'll the lesser of the 2 evils for voters to decide between)

Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) - Lean R (Carter is a phenomenal candidate and a good fundraiser and can attack Deal on snowgate, the segregated prom, and failure to expand Medicaid, but the state like AZ is still too conservative and won't get good turnout from Atlanta like Abrams could have)

Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) - Lean D (Aiona lost to Abercrombie by 17 points in 2010, so I don't consider the poll where Aiona is leading reliable especially when it's Hawaii of all places, but nonetheless is still vulnerable)

Idaho: Butch Otter (R) - Safe R (I would personally like to see how much of a threat Fulcher will be in the primary)

Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - Tossup (Rauner hurt his chances big time when he made the minimum wage flop and will be painted as another Mitt Romney, but Quinn is still a lot weaker than Malloy)

Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) - Safe R (Hoefling isn't a threat and he'll beat Hatch decisively)

Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) - Tossup (Unfortunately, like IL, the state's just too polarizing no matter how unpopular the incumbent is and Kansans I bet would rather than some Tea Party far-right loon than a liberal as their Governor)

Maine: Mike Michaud (D) - Tossup/Tilt D (LePage's toxicness might be enough for Michaud to win (and break 40%) even with Cutler trying to ruin everything)

Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) - Safe D (>Sabato's ranking)

Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) - Likely D (Coakley isn't Sink and I feel pretty confident that she can beat Baker)

Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) - Tossup (He's getting a significant amount of help from the DGA and once he starts getting his name out there and attacking Snyder for right-to-work and the abortion insurance bill, cutting school funding, and failing to provide assistance to Detroit, he could narrowly win)

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D (I think he has close to if not a 60% approval rating, so he's not going anywhere anytime soon)

Nebraska: Jon Bruning (R) - Likely R (Simply because I want mah polls and Hassebrook really isn't that bad of a candidate while Bruning's pretty bad)

Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) - Safe R (lol at the no-name field of Democratic candidates)

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D (Weak GOP candidates and Hassan is a phenomenal Governor)

New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) - Likely R (We really need to get an idea of what's going on here now given the stakes for 2016, it being a blue state with a strong Democratic challenger, and the last poll from 2 years ago having Martinez barely cracking 50%)

New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D (Ugh)

Ohio: Ed FitzGerald (D) - Tossup (There's no way a race that's within 5 points with a little known Democratic challenger is "likely R" and FitzGerald has enough party and union support to help him attack Kasich for SB5 as well as his continued tax cuts for the wealthy, the fracking scandal, the fight for voting rights, and Kasich's attack on women's rights (I heard State Rep. Kris Jordan reintroduced the infamous Fetal Heartbeat Bill last week), so any favorable chances Kasich has in this race will be diminished by summertime. You heard it first from me).

Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R (Joe "Storm Shelter" Dorman stands no chance)

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D (The most interesting thing here is the name of Kitzhaber's perennial primary challenger)

Pennsylvania: Thomas Wolf (D) - Lean D (Unfortunate that he needs to use 8 figures of his own wealth to beat Schwartz)

Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) - Likely D (It will be close, but I think she can beat out Taveras and Fung's chances of winning are low)

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - Lean R (Haley's recovering and Sheheen while popular among moderates needs Haley to make a whole bunch of gaffes to win this)

South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R (Assuming Daugaard runs, he'll coast to re-election)

Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R (Impressively enough, still no Democratic challenger and his only GOP challenger is some raccoon abuser)

Texas: Greg Abbott (R) - Likely R (This is definitely an overrated race, but I don't think Abbott has it in full lock just yet)

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D (Yeah, I doubt that the Progressives will field a challenger now and even if they do, there wouldn't be strong enough Republican opposition)

Wisconsin: Mary Burke (D) - Tossup (I say this post-scandal leakage and the third times the charm to knock off Walker aka Mr. Ultrasound V2)

Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) - Safe R (Mead officially declared and Freudenthal can't even run anyways, so yeah)

So this is a net of D+4, Dems would hold 25 Governorships and Republicans 25.