2014 Gubernatorial Predictions

[PolitiJunkie]

It might be a bit optimistic, but I'll give it a try:

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Neil Giuliano (D)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown(Gavin Newsom, if Brown declines to run) (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Thomas C. Foley (R)
Florida: Alex Sink (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: James Aiona (R)
Idaho: Raúl Labrador (R)
Illinois: Aaron Shock (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Michael Steele (R)
Massachusetts: Scott Brown (R)
Michigan: Stacy Erwin Oakes (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Charles Bass (R)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Patrick C. Lynch (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (D)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Agreed- too optimistic! Your Arkansas, Connecticut, and Massachusetts predictions are quite good, but your Hawaii, Illinois, and New Hampshire ones are laughable. Quinn is certainly vulnerable, but even Quinn would beat Schock. Remember that it's Illinois- moderate Republicans are formidable, but someone as conservative as Schock has no chance statewide. Dillard and Rutheford could definitely beat Quinn. However, the likelihood of Quinn even being in the race seems small. Daley v Dillard and Daley v Rutheford would be toss-up/lean D; Madigan v Dillard and Madigan v Rutheford would be Safe D.

[PolitiJunkie]

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)**
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R Gain)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D Gain)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Eliot Cutler (I Gain)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D Hold)
Massachusetts: Mike Cupuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D Gain)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R Hold)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D Gain)
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen (D Gain)***
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)

Assuming McAuliffe and Christie win in 2013, this would result in a breakdown of 26 R 23 D 1 I

**Newsom or Harris if he retires, which I hope he does, but I bet he won't.

***I know it sounds ridiculous, but Haley beat Sheheen by a tiny margin in a very red state in a year that was very good for Republicans. Moreover, Sheheen has already declared his 2014 run, meaning he has more time to organize and build up name recognition. Finally, and foremost, Sheheen is ALREADY leading Haley, the incumbent Governor, by at least 2 points in every single poll between them.



I think these predictions gives a limited picture, because I am only naming one prediction, whereas it varies on a case by case basis based on who runs, who is nominated, etc. Therefore, I thought it would also be useful to include my breakdown regarding where the races fall party-wise:

Safe Democratic
California
Colorado
Oregon
Vermont
New York
Maryland
Minnesota

Likely Democratic
New Hampshire
Illinois
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Massachusetts

Lean Democratic
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Florida

Toss-Up
South Carolina
Arkansas
Maine
Connecticut

Lean Republican
Arizona
New Mexico
Nevada
Ohio
Georgia
Iowa

Likely Republican
Texas
Wisconsin

Safe Republican
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Tennessee
Wyoming
Nebraska