2014 Senatorial Predictions

[SPC]

Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Alaska: Mead Treadwell
Arkansas: Tom Cotton
Colorado: Mark Udall
Delaware: Chris Coons
Georgia: Paul Broun
Hawaii: Brian Schatz
Idaho: Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin
Iowa: Matt Whitaker
Kansas: Pat Roberts
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell
Louisiana: David Cassidy
Maine: Susan Collins
Massachusetts: Ed Markey
Michigan: Terri Lynn Land
Minnesota: Al Franken
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel
Montana: Steve Daines
Nebraska: Shane Osborn
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Tom Udall
North Carolina: Greg Brannon
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed
South Carolina: Lee Bright
South Carolina: Tim Scott
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn
Virginia: Mark Warner
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming: Mike Enzi

[SPC]

Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Alaska: Mead Treadwell Dan Sullivan
Arkansas: Tom Cotton
Colorado: Mark Udall Cory Gardner
Delaware: Chris Coons
Georgia: Paul Broun
Hawaii: Brian Schatz
Idaho: Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin
Iowa: Matt Whitaker Bruce Braley
Kansas: Pat Roberts
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell
Louisiana: David Cassidy
Maine: Susan Collins
Massachusetts: Ed Markey
Michigan: Terri Lynn Land
Minnesota: Al Franken
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel
Montana: Steve Daines
Nebraska: Shane Osborn
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Tom Udall
North Carolina: Greg Brannon
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe
Oklahoma: Randy Brogdon
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed
South Carolina: Lee Bright
South Carolina: Tim Scott
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn
Virginia: Mark Warner
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming: Mike Enzi

updated

[SPC]

In the event of a runoff in Louisiana and/or Georgia, will our predictions be graded based on the runoff results or the Election Day results?

[SPC]

Update (with hopefully less hackishness):

Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Alaska: Mark Begich
Arkansas: Mark Pryor
Colorado: Mark Udall
Delaware: Chris Coons
Georgia: Jack Kingston (on second thought I think his greater support from the Tea Party will let him pull an upset over Perdue)
Hawaii: Brian Schatz
Idaho: Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin
Iowa: Bruce Braley (although I think this will be much closer than people expect)
Kansas: Pat Roberts
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (see Iowa)
Louisiana: David Cassidy (although, as I've stated before, I'm not sure what effect another GOP failure to pick up the Senate will have on Landrieu's chances in a runoff)
Maine: Susan Collins
Massachusetts: Ed Markey
Michigan: Gary Peters
Minnesota: Al Franken
Mississippi: Thad Cochran
Montana: Steve Daines
Nebraska: Ben Sasse
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Tom Udall
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (complete tossup IMO)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe
Oklahoma: T.W. Shannon
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham
South Carolina: Tim Scott
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn
Virginia: Mark Warner
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming: Mike Enzi

[SPC]

Alabama: Sessions
Alaska: Begich
As I've pointed out elsewhere, history of Republicans overperforming polls in Alaska appears to be more attributable to polling companies with spotty records than a genuine phenomenon. Unless Sullivan actually starts leading in non-Republican firms, I give the edge to the incumbent.
Arkansas: Pryor
Perhaps wishful thinking, but unless Cotton starts leading in non-Republican firms, I once again give the edge to the incumbent.
Colorado: Udall
See Alaska, but replace Republicans with Democrats. However, Udall and Gardner have both led numerous polls, making this call a bit more uncertain. While I could easily see this being a repeat of Wisconsin 2010, Udall has held the lead slightly more often, and thus I give him a statistically insignificant edge.
Delaware: Coons
Georgia: Perdue
Given that Romney won Georgia by 7 points, I find it hard to believe that Perdue could lose in a midterm year. Even if Perdue does manage to screw it up, the runoff gives him a bit more wiggle room than other bad candidates.
Hawaii: Schatz
Idaho: Risch
Illinois: Durbin
Iowa: Braley
Like Colorado, I have little faith in this call. However, Braley's slightly more frequent polling leads give him an insignificant edge.
Kansas: Roberts
Kentucky: McConnell
It would be nice if nonpartisan pollsters were willing to look at this race, but in order to be consistent with my other ratings, I should give the advantage to the incumbent unless Grimes consistently leads in nonpartisan polls (right now it's essentially a tie.)
Louisiana: Landrieu
While she is likely doomed if it gets to be a runoff, polls usually have given her a majority in the jungle primary, meaning there is a good chance that Cassidy won't have the runoff to his advantage.
Maine: Collins
Massachusetts: Markey
Michigan: Peters
Minnesota: Franken
Mississippi: Cochran
Montana: Daines
While Walsh has tightened the race, Daines still has a clear advantage.
Nebraska: Sasse
New Hampshire: Shaheen
New Jersey: Booker
New Mexico: Udall
North Carolina: Hagan
While I suspect that PPP might be inflating Hagan's chances here, the fact that other pollsters have corroborated this gives Hagan a clear advantage.
Oklahoma: Inhofe
Oklahoma: Lankford
Oregon: Merkley
Rhode Island: Reed
South Carolina: Graham
It would be hackishness on the highest level if I were to seriously propose that Ravenel could endanger Graham's reelection.
South Carolina: Scott
South Dakota: Rounds
Tennessee: Alexander
Texas: Cornyn
Virginia: Warner
West Virginia: Capito
Wyoming: Enzi

Most likely to flip:
1. South Dakota
2. West Virginia

3. Montana


4. Kentucky
5. Louisiana
6. Iowa
7. Arkansas
8. Colorado
9. Georgia
10. Alaska
11. North Carolina

[SPC]

Safe GOP (>98% Chance of Victory)
All unlisted GOP seats + Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota

Advantage GOP (60-98% Chance of Victory)
Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Tossup
Alaska*, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas*, Louisiana*

Advantage DEM
Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina

Safe DEM
All unlisted DEM seats

Asterisked seats would enter the colored category if additional polling information validated what scarce polling data is available.

Georgia would be in the tossup category due to Perdue's insignificant edge in polling, but the hurdle of a runoff works to Perdue's advantage (although I think the turnout difference between the general and the runoff would be far less pronounced than in 2008, when Obama was on the ballot in a presidential year)

Louisiana remains in the tossup category because Cassidy's current polling advantage is both unconfirmed by multiple sources and less than Manness's vote share. Given that it is uncertain whether Republicans will capture 5 or more seats on Election Day, I am not prepared to write off Landrieu's chances in a runoff. However, if Cassidy is truly ahead in the general election, it is hard to see Landrieu prevailing in a runoff, even if Republicans fall short of a majority.

Given my tendency to be slightly optimistic regarding Republican electoral chances (see my 2006, 2010, and 2012 predictions), I am inclined to assign the tossup seats without an asterisk next to them to the Democrats, if forced to choose.

[SPC]

Obviously in certain places votes are still being counted, but the results are pretty clear-cut now in nearly every race. I don't want to rush anyone, but when will we see scores and rankings?

We should probably wait for Louisiana to be over, if only for ceremonial purposes.