2014 Senatorial Predictions

[IceSpear]

Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.




I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.

[IceSpear]

Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.




I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.

IceSpear, that was very insightful. This is one of the more accurate maps in my view. I'll add that the National Journal argues that all three competitive Democrat-held Senate seats in the South will swing one way or the other together, which might be something to keep in mind once November is closer. Personally, I'm only ranking LA as a Republican pick-up because I don't think Landrieu has what it takes to win a runoff in this political climate (I don't think that any candidate can pass 50% in LA on November 4th), but I'm leaving AR and NC as Democratic holds, because it seems like Pryor is in a uniquely strong position, and Tillis is a weak candidate compared to Hagan.

Thanks! I think all three races have their own dynamic. Landrieu and Pryor would be in similar positions if it wasn't for the jungle primary in LA, but the presence of it puts her in more danger than he is. It's not a fait accompli that turnout will go down in the primary (see 2002 in Louisiana, and more recently Cochran's victory a few days ago) but the odds would be against her. I'm still iffy on Pryor. I never wrote him off even back when everyone assumed he'd be Blanche Lincoln 2.0, and I'm not getting carried away either now that everyone assumes he's the favorite because of a couple favorable polls. The North Carolina race is a bit different due to the fact that Pryor and Landrieu are relying on their personal brand to carry them through, whereas Hagan is only still in the race because NC is a swingish (though GOP tilted) state. I think the weak field there ultimately gave her a decent path to victory, but she could easily go down even with a modestly more Republican climate than we're in now.

[IceSpear]

Obviously in certain places votes are still being counted, but the results are pretty clear-cut now in nearly every race. I don't want to rush anyone, but when will we see scores and rankings?

Wouldn't we have to wait until all results are certified before we get scores? For example, Jerry Brown is currently sitting at 59.9% with some more votes left to count, and it matters in our score whether we put >50% or >60%. Plus there's still the Louisiana runoff.