2014 Senatorial Predictions

[Mr. Illini]

Latest update with me:



Many tears were shed in the making of this prediction. I've been denying that the GOP had the advantage for awhile now, but it is what it is.

Toss-Ups:

Iowa: Ernst sure has been performing better than I expected here. It will be close, but Braley has been using her anti-minimum wage stance to its maximum and has been duly pursuing liberal Dems and the rural community on her pro-oil stance (the rural community opposes oil because of bio fuels). Braley holds on.

Arkansas: Pryor is a good candidate for the state, but its' rightward shift of recent years is forcing it away from even the Blue Dogs. Cotton is starting to establish a consistent lead, and he will not slip up.

Louisiana: Landrieu has not done everything she can to win this race. Like Arkansas, Louisiana has taken a sharp turn toward the GOP, abandoning even the moderates. Landrieu was popular there, but she would want to back off pro-choice stances from the past if she wants a chance. She hasn't done that, and that has motivated me to change this prediction. Cassidy takes it.

Kentucky: Of the southern toss-ups, this is where my most confidence is as a Democrat. McConnell has the organization and national power, which has caused many to say Grimes doesn't have a chance. She does, however, as anti-incumbent sentiment is strong there, and she has run a fantastic campaign. She's strong, dynamic, and feels just right for the state. The Dems take Kentucky narrowly; Grimes wins.

North Carolina: I had Hagan winning here for awhile, but her chances are slimming by the day. She isn't an especially exciting candidate and anti-incumbent sentiment will prove strong here as well. This will be a close one, but I have Tillis narrowly here.

[Mr. Illini]

Many tears were shed in the making of this prediction. I've been denying that the GOP had the advantage for awhile now, but it is what it is.

Toss-Ups:

Iowa: Ernst sure has been performing better than I expected here. It will be close, but Braley has been using her anti-minimum wage stance to its maximum and has been duly pursuing liberal Dems and the rural community on her pro-oil stance (the rural community opposes oil because of bio fuels). Braley holds on.

Arkansas: Pryor is a good candidate for the state, but its' rightward shift of recent years is forcing it away from even the Blue Dogs. Cotton is starting to establish a consistent lead, and he will not slip up.

Louisiana: Landrieu has not done everything she can to win this race. Like Arkansas, Louisiana has taken a sharp turn toward the GOP, abandoning even the moderates. Landrieu was popular there, but she would want to back off pro-choice stances from the past if she wants a chance. She hasn't done that, and that has motivated me to change this prediction. Cassidy takes it.

Kentucky: Of the southern toss-ups, this is where my most confidence is as a Democrat. McConnell has the organization and national power, which has caused many to say Grimes doesn't have a chance. She does, however, as anti-incumbent sentiment is strong there, and she has run a fantastic campaign. She's strong, dynamic, and feels just right for the state. The Dems take Kentucky narrowly; Grimes wins.

North Carolina: I had Hagan winning here for awhile, but her chances are slimming by the day. She isn't an especially exciting candidate and anti-incumbent sentiment will prove strong here as well. This will be a close one, but I have Tillis narrowly here.

What about Colorado? And Kentucky... just no

As you can see, I have Colorado at Lean D.

And Kentucky...oh yes.