2014 Senatorial Predictions (user search)
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Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
K.Dobrev (O-BGR)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Juin (R-CO)MapProfile 11-03 32 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-02 3 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 0
kgt107 ()Map 10-21 1 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 0
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deus naturae (L-NY)MapProfile 11-02 6 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
liberal96 (D-NY)MapProfile 11-03 8 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ben Kenobi ()MapProfile 11-04 1 R +12 27 (+12) 9 (-12) 0 (0) 0
Gass3268 (D-MD)MapProfile 11-04 2 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
ThePoliticalGuy (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 20 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-04 435 Even 16 (+1) 19 (-2) 1 (+1) 0
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benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-04 9 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
slick67 (R-SC)
by slick67 on 2014-12-10 @ 08:29:37
MapProfile 11-03 21 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2014-12-04 @ 13:19:50
MapProfile 10-19 97 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 6
colin (I-ON)
by KS21 on 2014-11-20 @ 08:45:47
MapProfile 10-25 17 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 6
MATTROSE94 (D-NJ)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-10 @ 10:44:28
MapProfile 10-30 38 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 1
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)
by dmurphy1984 on 2014-11-05 @ 05:41:19
Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-04 @ 01:58:43
MapProfile 11-04 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 1
IceSpear (D-PA)
by IceSpear on 2014-11-04 @ 01:02:42
MapProfile 11-04 22 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 2
BushCountry (I-IN)
by wingindy on 2014-11-04 @ 00:29:01
MapProfile 11-03 34 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 5
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 17:16:21
MapProfile 11-02 433 R +2 17 (+2) 18 (-3) 1 (+1) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 16:44:11
MapProfile 11-02 9 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Senatorial Predictions  (Read 225305 times)
PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,124


« on: June 12, 2013, 08:13:24 PM »

In some states, we can't exactly predict if we don't know the candidates, so I'm going to offer my predictions based on different scenarios. Seems like the only feasible way to do it.

Alabama
Sessions                        Safe R Hold

Alaska
Begich v. Treadwell         Lean D Hold
Begich v. Miller               Likely D Hold
Begich v. Palin                Safe D Hold
Overall: Likely D Hold

Arkansas
Pryor v. Cotton              Lean R Pickup
Pryor v. Darr                 Likely D Hold
Pryor v. Womack           Toss-Up
Overall: Toss-Up

Colorado
Udall                             Safe D Hold

Delaware
Coons                           Safe D

Georgia
Cleland v. Broun            Likely D Pickup
Cleland v. Gingrey         Likely D Pickup
Cleland v. Kingston        Likely D Pickup
Cleland v. Handel           Likely D Pickup
Nunn v. Broun              Lean D Pickup
Nunn v. Gingrey           Lean D Pickup
Nunn v. Kingston         Toss-Up
Nunn v. Handel            Lean R Hold
Carter v. Broun             Toss-Up
Carter v. Gingrey          Toss-Up
Carter v. Kingston        Lean R Hold
Carter v. Handel           Lean R Hold
Overall: Lean D Pickup (only because the GOP field is unusually weak and the Dem field is unusually strong)

Hawaii
Hanabusa                    Safe D Hold
Schatz v. Lingle           Safe D Hold
Schatz v. Djou             Lean D Hold
Overall: Likely D Hold

Idaho
Risch                           Safe R Hold

Illinois
Durbin                         Safe D Hold

Iowa
Braley                          Likely D Hold

Kansas
Roberts                        Safe R Hold

Kentucky
McConnell v. Grimes     Lean D Pickup
McConnell v. Other       Likely R Hold
Overall:                        Toss-Up

Louisiana
Landrieu                      Likely D Hold

Maine
Collins                         Safe R Hold

Massachusetts
Markey                        Safe D Hold

Michigan
Peters v. Rogers           Likely D Hold
Peters v. Land              Likely D Hold
Overall: Likely D Hold

Minnesota
Franken                      Safe D Hold

Mississippi
Cochran                      Safe R Hold

Montana
Schweitzer                  Safe D Hold

Nebraska
No idea what candidates will run since Johanns is retiring, but regardless, it's a Safe R Hold

New Hampshire
Shaheen                     Safe D Hold

New Jersey
Booker                        Safe D Hold

New Mexico
Udall                           Safe D Hold

North Carolina
Hagan                         Lean D Hold

Oklahoma
Inhofe                         Safe R Hold

Oregon
Merkley                       Safe D Hold

Rhode Island
Reed                           Safe D Hold

South Carolina
Graham                      Safe R Hold
Graham Primaried Out          Lean R Hold

South Carolina Special
Scott                          Safe R Hold

South Dakota
Rounds                       Safe R Pickup

Tennessee
Alexander                    Safe R Hold

Texas
Cornyn                       Likely R Hold

Virginia
Warner                       Safe D Hold


West Virginia
Moore Capito              Likely R Pickup

Wyoming
Enzi                          Safe R Hold

Lightning Round
Alabama: Sessions
Alaska: Begich
Arkansas: Cotton
Colorado: Udall
Delaware: Coons
Georgia: TOO DIFFICULT
Hawaii: Hanabusa
Idaho: Risch
Illinois: Durbin
Iowa: Braley
Kansas: Roberts
Kentucky: Grimes
Louisiana: Landrieu
Maine: Collins
Massachusetts: Markey
Michigan: Peters
Minnesota: Franken
Mississippi: Cochran
Montana: Schweitzer
Nebraska: Osborn
New Hampshire: Shaheen
New Jersey: Booker
New Mexico: Udall
North Carolina: Hagan
Oklahoma: Inhofe
Oregon: Merkley
Rhode Island: Reed
South Carolina: Graham
South Carolina Special: Scott
South Dakota: Rounds
Tennessee: Alexander
Texas: Cornyn
Virginia: Warner
West Virginia: Moore Capito
Wyoming: Enzi

Georgia certainly looks to be the most competitive/exciting race of the year.
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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,124


« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2013, 11:01:26 AM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (Republican)
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (Republican)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (Republican)
Colorado: Mark Udall (Democrat)
Delaware: Chris Coons (Democrat)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (Democrat)
Hawaii: Brian Schatz (Democrat)
Idaho: Jim Risch (Republican)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (Democrat)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (Democrat)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (Republican)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (Republican)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (Republican)
Maine: Susan Collins: (Republican)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (Democrat)
Michigan: Gary Peters (Democrat)
Minnesota: Al Franken (Democrat)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (Republican)
Montana: Champ Edmunds (Republican)
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (Republican)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (Democrat)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (Democrat)
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (Republican)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (Republican)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (Democrat)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (Democrat)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (Republican)
South Carolina Special: Tim Scott (Republican)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (Republican)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (Republican)
Texas: John Cornyn (Republican)
Virginia: Mark Warner (Democrat)
West Virginia: Shelly Moore Capito (Republican)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (Republican)


Just a question - don't necessarily mean to challenge your predictions, but you think Hagan goes down in NC? And the GOP ends up taking both AK and LA too? I think they happen in this order if at all: AK then LA then NC. I think Landrieu is significantly stronger as a candidate than Hagan, but the state is a harder win for her (even though she has a history of pulling out close elections). I think Hagan is a weaker candidate, but the thin GOP bench + negative press from the GOP Legislature/McCrory favors her.

Also...Champ Edmunds? What? The only Republican candidate who could possibly beat John Walsh is Steve Daines, and he's probably running.
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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,124


« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2013, 11:15:07 AM »

I'm updating my predictions from June. Some of them were very misinformed, and some of them just have changed a lot.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Alaska: Mark Begich
Arkansas: Tom Cotton**
Colorado: Mark Udall
Delaware: Chris Coons
Georgia: Michelle Nunn
Hawaii: Colleen Hanabusa**
Idaho: Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin
Iowa: Bruce Braley
Kansas: Pat Roberts
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes**
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu
Maine: Susan Collins
Massachusetts: Ed Markey
Michigan: Gary Peters
Minnesota: Al Franken
Mississippi: Thad Cochran
Montana: John Walsh**
Nebraska: Shane Osborn
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Tom Udall
North Carolina: Kay Hagan
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham
South Carolina Special: Tim Scott
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn
Virginia: Mark Warner
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito**
Wyoming: Mike Enzi

**Least Confident (McConnell, Pryor, Tennant, Daines, and Schatz could all easily win as well)
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