2014 Senatorial Predictions

[nolesfan2011]

AL: Jeff Sessions (R) unopposed
*AK: Dan Sullivan (R) 49% (I) Mark Begich (D) 48% Others 2%
*AR: Tom Cotton (R) 53% (I) Mark Pryor (D) 44% Other 3%
*CO: Cory Gardner (R) 50% (I) Mark Udall (D) 48% Other 2%
DE: (I) Chris Coons (D) over 60%
GA: David Perdue (R) 49% Michelle Nunn (D) 47% Amanda Swafford (L) 4%. neither candidate breaks 50% GA goes to a January runoff.
HI: (I) Brian Schatz (D) over 60%
ID: (I) Jim Risch (R) over 60%
IL: (I) Dick Durbin (D) under 55%
*IA: Joni Ernst (R) 51% Bruce Braley (D) 47% Other 2%
*KS: Greg Orman (I) 49% (I) Pat Roberts (R) 47% Randall Batson (L) 4%
KY: (I) Mitch McConnell 54% Alison Grimes (D) 43% David Patterson (L) 3%
LA: (I) Mary Landrieu (D) 44% Bill Cassidy (R) 37% Rob Maness (R) 15% Other 4%. Landreiu and Cassidy advance to a December h2h runoff, where Cassidy has a decided advantage (this is the jungle primary).
ME: (I) Susan Collins (R) over 55%
MA: (I) Ed Markey (D) over 55%
MI: Gary Peters (D) over 55%
MN: (I) Al Franken (D) under 55%
MS: (I) Thad Cochran (R) over 55%
*MT: Steve Daines (R) over 55%
NE: Ben Sasse (R) over 55%
*NH: Scott Brown (R) 51% (I) Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49%
NJ: (I) Cory Booker (D) over 55%
NM: (I) Mark Udall (D) under 55%
NC: (I) Kay Hagan (D) 50% Thom Tillis (R) 46% Sean Haugh (L) 4%
OK and OK-special: (I) Jim Inhofe (R) over 60% and James Lankford (R) over 60%
OR: (I) Jeff Merkley (D) over 55%
RI: (I) Jack Reed (D) over 65%
SC and SC-special: (I) Lindsey Graham (R) under 55% Thomas Ravenel (I) over 5%, and (I) Tim Scott (R) over 60%
*SD: Mike Rounds (R) 45% Rick Weiland (D) 36% Larry Pressler (I) 15% Gordon Howie (I) 4%
TN: (I) Lamar Alexander (R) over 55%
TX: (I) John Cornyn (R) over 55%
VA: (I) Mark Warner (D) under 55%
*WV Shelley Moore Capito (R) over 55%
WY: (I) Mike Enzi (R) over 60%

Before Colorado, Kansas, Alaska and New Hampshire get counted, and before the GA and LA runoffs, I have the Senate 48-46 in favor of the GOP.

If Kansas goes to the Indie/Dem Orman as I predict, Alaska goes to Sullivan by a hair, and Colorado goes to Gardner, that makes it 50-47 GOP before the GA and LA runoffs. They only need to win one of NH, GA, LA to take Senate control.

I have Scott Brown in an upset, and then after the December and January runoffs in LA and GA both going to the GOP (Cassidy and Perdue will be favored) the final Senate result should be 53-47 in favor of the GOP, a six seat advantage.