battleground states in 2020?

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

Not entirely true.  Why do you think Montco GOPers are getting pissed over new developments?  Dem registration out there has skyrocketed in 2004.

I'm not denying that Montco is receiving a lot of former Philadelphia residents but NJ is also getting a good amount.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

See, you are the king of straw-man arguments. Are some moving to NJ? Of course. Many are also moving into the Philly burbs which is part of the reason both counties are moving left. I know it's hard for you to face reality, but thats the truth.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

I am almost positive the Pittsburgh area is losing population faster than the Philadelphia area.

Both CITIES are losing population. But the entire Pittsburgh metropolitan area as a whole is also losing population (pretty sad actually!) while the Philadelphia metro area is growing.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

See, you are the king of straw-man arguments. Are some moving to NJ? Of course. Many are also moving into the Philly burbs which is part of the reason both counties are moving left. I know it's hard for you to face reality, but thats the truth.

Hard for me to face reality? It's reality that PA will likely lose a Congressional district in 2010 and it's reality that the district will probably be in the SE PA area. People are leaving the state in this area. Many retirees from Northeast Philadelphia are moving to the Jersey shore. I don't need you to tell me what's the truth.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

See, you are the king of straw-man arguments. Are some moving to NJ? Of course. Many are also moving into the Philly burbs which is part of the reason both counties are moving left. I know it's hard for you to face reality, but thats the truth.

Hard for me to face reality? It's reality that PA will likely lose a Congressional district in 2010 and it's reality that the district will probably be in the SE PA area. People are leaving the state in this area. Many retirees from Northeast Philadelphia are moving to the Jersey shore. I don't need you to tell me what's the truth.

OMG you are clueless. Look at the census data!! Philly is losing population. Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Northampton are all booming!

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

See, you are the king of straw-man arguments. Are some moving to NJ? Of course. Many are also moving into the Philly burbs which is part of the reason both counties are moving left. I know it's hard for you to face reality, but thats the truth.

Hard for me to face reality? It's reality that PA will likely lose a Congressional district in 2010 and it's reality that the district will probably be in the SE PA area. People are leaving the state in this area. Many retirees from Northeast Philadelphia are moving to the Jersey shore. I don't need you to tell me what's the truth.

OMG you are clueless. Look at the census data!! Philly is losing population. Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Northampton are all booming!

Those counties booming means NJ isn't? You are clueless, pal.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

See, you are the king of straw-man arguments. Are some moving to NJ? Of course. Many are also moving into the Philly burbs which is part of the reason both counties are moving left. I know it's hard for you to face reality, but thats the truth.

Hard for me to face reality? It's reality that PA will likely lose a Congressional district in 2010 and it's reality that the district will probably be in the SE PA area. People are leaving the state in this area. Many retirees from Northeast Philadelphia are moving to the Jersey shore. I don't need you to tell me what's the truth.

OMG you are clueless. Look at the census data!! Philly is losing population. Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Northampton are all booming!

Those counties booming means NJ isn't? You are clueless, pal.

When the hell did I say NJ wasn't booming? I said the Philly suburbs are booming. You say they're not, everybody is moving to NJ. I say yea, they're moving to both. You somehow think I'm saying NJ isn't booming. You are the most thick-headed person I've ever encountered.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

See, you are the king of straw-man arguments. Are some moving to NJ? Of course. Many are also moving into the Philly burbs which is part of the reason both counties are moving left. I know it's hard for you to face reality, but thats the truth.

Hard for me to face reality? It's reality that PA will likely lose a Congressional district in 2010 and it's reality that the district will probably be in the SE PA area. People are leaving the state in this area. Many retirees from Northeast Philadelphia are moving to the Jersey shore. I don't need you to tell me what's the truth.

OMG you are clueless. Look at the census data!! Philly is losing population. Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Northampton are all booming!

Those counties booming means NJ isn't? You are clueless, pal.

You say they're not, everybody is moving to NJ.

Maybe you're just an idiot...

Here's what I said earlier:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah you're just dumb.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

See, you are the king of straw-man arguments. Are some moving to NJ? Of course. Many are also moving into the Philly burbs which is part of the reason both counties are moving left. I know it's hard for you to face reality, but thats the truth.

Hard for me to face reality? It's reality that PA will likely lose a Congressional district in 2010 and it's reality that the district will probably be in the SE PA area. People are leaving the state in this area. Many retirees from Northeast Philadelphia are moving to the Jersey shore. I don't need you to tell me what's the truth.

OMG you are clueless. Look at the census data!! Philly is losing population. Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Northampton are all booming!

Those counties booming means NJ isn't? You are clueless, pal.

You say they're not, everybody is moving to NJ.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So you twisted around what I said too.

What the f**ck are we arguing over? This is why you're annoying. We agree on something but you just argue for the sake of arguing. Can't you g just leave what I said without twisting it around and putting up some anti-danwxman argument just for the sake of it? Christ man, it's annoying.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

See, you are the king of straw-man arguments. Are some moving to NJ? Of course. Many are also moving into the Philly burbs which is part of the reason both counties are moving left. I know it's hard for you to face reality, but thats the truth.

Hard for me to face reality? It's reality that PA will likely lose a Congressional district in 2010 and it's reality that the district will probably be in the SE PA area. People are leaving the state in this area. Many retirees from Northeast Philadelphia are moving to the Jersey shore. I don't need you to tell me what's the truth.

OMG you are clueless. Look at the census data!! Philly is losing population. Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Northampton are all booming!

Those counties booming means NJ isn't? You are clueless, pal.

You say they're not, everybody is moving to NJ.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So you twisted around what I said too.

What the f**ck are we arguing over? This is why you're annoying. We agree on something but you just argue for the sake of arguing. Can't you g just leave what I said without twisting it around and putting up some anti-danwxman argument just for the sake of it? Christ man, it's annoying.

Hahaha! This is why I'm annoying. I love when people are wrong and twist my words. You, my friend, twisted my words. Don't act like the pathetic victim. You're already pathetic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Back to the actual topic...

[12th Doctor]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

[Beet]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

Good example, but bad point. According to the Census Bureau, Butler county's population grew by 3.4% in 2000-2003 to 180,000 compared to just 0.7% for the state as a whole. And Butler county borders on Allegheny county.

However, Beaver county, which also borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.5% to 179,000. Armstrong county, which borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.0% to 72,000. Westmoreland county to Allegheny's east saw its population drop 0.5% to 368,000. Allegheny itself lost 1.6% of its population to 1.261 million. That alone accounts for several times more than the change in Butler. Other counties in Southern and Western Pennsylvania losing population are Fayette (-1.7%), Greene (-0.7%), Lawrence (-1.3%), Mercer (-0.3%), Crawford (-0.6%), Erie (-0.3%), Somerset (-0.8%), Cambria (-2.1%), Indiana (-0.6%), Clearfield (-0.6%), Clarion (-1.3%), Venango (-1.7%), Warren (-2.4%), McKean (-1.5%), Elk (-2.3%) and Blair (-1.5%).

Not a single one of the 8 counties surrouding Butler saw its population increase from 2000-2003.

By contrast the Southeastern & Eastern counties are growing, such as York (+3.4%), Lancaster (+2.6%), Chester (+5.5%), Montgomery (+2.9%), Bucks (+2.6%), Berks (+3.1%), Northampton (+4.2%), Lehigh (+2.7%), Carbon (+2.3%), Monroe (+11.4%), Pike (+12.7%), and Wayne (+2.9%).

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/pennsylvania_map.html

Draw a straight line east from Harrisburg to Allentown, then north from Allentown to Scranton, and not a single county falling to the south or east of that line besides Phildelphia does not show growth. A majority of counties lying to the north or west of that line, however, are shrinking. The further west you get, the more dire the situation becomes. It is of no small wonder (and this is one of the strangest things about American politics) how many of these counties, in the Pennsylvania "T", continue to support a party whose economic policies have persistently and reliably contributed to the destruction of their communities over 30 years. Such an instance of electoral self-destruction would rarely be found anywhere in the world. In any case, the future of the state (at least in voting numbers) seems to be towards the SE.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is of no small wonder (and this is one of the strangest things about American politics) how many of these counties, in the Pennsylvania "T", continue to support a party whose economic policies have persistently and reliably contributed to the destruction of their communities over 30 years. Such an instance of electoral self-destruction would rarely be found anywhere in the world.

There is one other example: the Notts-Derbyshire coalfield in the '80's.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

My God, you people do not look at census data. The Pittsburgh metro, sadly I might add, is actually losing population. Sure certiain parts are growing, but overall it is not. The only counties that gained population in the Pittsburgh metro were Butler and Washington (very small incease).

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

Good example, but bad point. According to the Census Bureau, Butler county's population grew by 3.4% in 2000-2003 to 180,000 compared to just 0.7% for the state as a whole. And Butler county borders on Allegheny county.

However, Beaver county, which also borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.5% to 179,000. Armstrong county, which borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.0% to 72,000. Westmoreland county to Allegheny's east saw its population drop 0.5% to 368,000. Allegheny itself lost 1.6% of its population to 1.261 million. That alone accounts for several times more than the change in Butler. Other counties in Southern and Western Pennsylvania losing population are Fayette (-1.7%), Greene (-0.7%), Lawrence (-1.3%), Mercer (-0.3%), Crawford (-0.6%), Erie (-0.3%), Somerset (-0.8%), Cambria (-2.1%), Indiana (-0.6%), Clearfield (-0.6%), Clarion (-1.3%), Venango (-1.7%), Warren (-2.4%), McKean (-1.5%), Elk (-2.3%) and Blair (-1.5%).

Not a single one of the 8 counties surrouding Butler saw its population increase from 2000-2003.

By contrast the Southeastern & Eastern counties are growing, such as York (+3.4%), Lancaster (+2.6%), Chester (+5.5%), Montgomery (+2.9%), Bucks (+2.6%), Berks (+3.1%), Northampton (+4.2%), Lehigh (+2.7%), Carbon (+2.3%), Monroe (+11.4%), Pike (+12.7%), and Wayne (+2.9%).

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/pennsylvania_map.html

Draw a straight line east from Harrisburg to Allentown, then north from Allentown to Scranton, and not a single county falling to the south or east of that line besides Phildelphia does not show growth. A majority of counties lying to the north or west of that line, however, are shrinking. The further west you get, the more dire the situation becomes. It is of no small wonder (and this is one of the strangest things about American politics) how many of these counties, in the Pennsylvania "T", continue to support a party whose economic policies have persistently and reliably contributed to the destruction of their communities over 30 years. Such an instance of electoral self-destruction would rarely be found anywhere in the world. In any case, the future of the state (at least in voting numbers) seems to be towards the SE.

Thank you.

[jacob_101]

Here's what I think will be battleground states in 2020.  Let's say battleground meaning either party gets between 48-52%.

AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, OR, OH, VA, WI.

I agree with some of you that by 2020, PA will not be a battleground state.

[Gustaf]

That makes sense Jacob, though I'd remove Maine, Michigan and Oregon. There is no real sign of a GOP trend there. I would also remove Arizona - very Republican tradition and a lot of ground for Democrats to cover. I also don't think Pennsylvania will have ceased to be a battleground while Ohio still is. Either remove Ohio or bring in PA.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

Good example, but bad point. According to the Census Bureau, Butler county's population grew by 3.4% in 2000-2003 to 180,000 compared to just 0.7% for the state as a whole. And Butler county borders on Allegheny county.

However, Beaver county, which also borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.5% to 179,000. Armstrong county, which borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.0% to 72,000. Westmoreland county to Allegheny's east saw its population drop 0.5% to 368,000. Allegheny itself lost 1.6% of its population to 1.261 million. That alone accounts for several times more than the change in Butler. Other counties in Southern and Western Pennsylvania losing population are Fayette (-1.7%), Greene (-0.7%), Lawrence (-1.3%), Mercer (-0.3%), Crawford (-0.6%), Erie (-0.3%), Somerset (-0.8%), Cambria (-2.1%), Indiana (-0.6%), Clearfield (-0.6%), Clarion (-1.3%), Venango (-1.7%), Warren (-2.4%), McKean (-1.5%), Elk (-2.3%) and Blair (-1.5%).

Not a single one of the 8 counties surrouding Butler saw its population increase from 2000-2003.

By contrast the Southeastern & Eastern counties are growing, such as York (+3.4%), Lancaster (+2.6%), Chester (+5.5%), Montgomery (+2.9%), Bucks (+2.6%), Berks (+3.1%), Northampton (+4.2%), Lehigh (+2.7%), Carbon (+2.3%), Monroe (+11.4%), Pike (+12.7%), and Wayne (+2.9%).

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/pennsylvania_map.html

Draw a straight line east from Harrisburg to Allentown, then north from Allentown to Scranton, and not a single county falling to the south or east of that line besides Phildelphia does not show growth. A majority of counties lying to the north or west of that line, however, are shrinking. The further west you get, the more dire the situation becomes. It is of no small wonder (and this is one of the strangest things about American politics) how many of these counties, in the Pennsylvania "T", continue to support a party whose economic policies have persistently and reliably contributed to the destruction of their communities over 30 years. Such an instance of electoral self-destruction would rarely be found anywhere in the world. In any case, the future of the state (at least in voting numbers) seems to be towards the SE.

Thank you.

I concur.  This data definitely helps the Dems out considerably.  Unless the GOP removes this Bible Belt mentality, the Dems should thrive here.  I can definitely see Chester County flipping in the near future and Lancaster, Berks and other exurbian counties closing their large GOP margins.

[bullmoose88]

The Philly Burbs are booming Phil...

but not necessarily because Philly's losing population.

You're getting a large number of New York Transplants who move down here because, relatively speaking, property values are cheaper (which is fine for me...because my home value has doubled a couple times over)

[12th Doctor]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

Good example, but bad point. According to the Census Bureau, Butler county's population grew by 3.4% in 2000-2003 to 180,000 compared to just 0.7% for the state as a whole. And Butler county borders on Allegheny county.

However, Beaver county, which also borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.5% to 179,000. Armstrong county, which borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.0% to 72,000. Westmoreland county to Allegheny's east saw its population drop 0.5% to 368,000. Allegheny itself lost 1.6% of its population to 1.261 million. That alone accounts for several times more than the change in Butler. Other counties in Southern and Western Pennsylvania losing population are Fayette (-1.7%), Greene (-0.7%), Lawrence (-1.3%), Mercer (-0.3%), Crawford (-0.6%), Erie (-0.3%), Somerset (-0.8%), Cambria (-2.1%), Indiana (-0.6%), Clearfield (-0.6%), Clarion (-1.3%), Venango (-1.7%), Warren (-2.4%), McKean (-1.5%), Elk (-2.3%) and Blair (-1.5%).

Not a single one of the 8 counties surrouding Butler saw its population increase from 2000-2003.

By contrast the Southeastern & Eastern counties are growing, such as York (+3.4%), Lancaster (+2.6%), Chester (+5.5%), Montgomery (+2.9%), Bucks (+2.6%), Berks (+3.1%), Northampton (+4.2%), Lehigh (+2.7%), Carbon (+2.3%), Monroe (+11.4%), Pike (+12.7%), and Wayne (+2.9%).

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/pennsylvania_map.html

Draw a straight line east from Harrisburg to Allentown, then north from Allentown to Scranton, and not a single county falling to the south or east of that line besides Phildelphia does not show growth. A majority of counties lying to the north or west of that line, however, are shrinking. The further west you get, the more dire the situation becomes. It is of no small wonder (and this is one of the strangest things about American politics) how many of these counties, in the Pennsylvania "T", continue to support a party whose economic policies have persistently and reliably contributed to the destruction of their communities over 30 years. Such an instance of electoral self-destruction would rarely be found anywhere in the world. In any case, the future of the state (at least in voting numbers) seems to be towards the SE.

Damn you and your "census data".  

I suppose you are right in that that is in fact what the census does show.  I'll amend what I said earlier:

Younger people are acctually starting to move back into the Pittsburgh area.  I have observed this myself.  Most of the population loss is for "New Deal Die Off".  Thus, explaining the increased margin of the Republican vote.  In a few years, the treand will probably balance out.

[Keystone Phil]

The Philly Burbs are booming Phil...

Ok point out where I said they weren't. What I stated was that both the burbs and NJ are booming. I just thought more people were leaving the state from the SE  area than the SW.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

Good example, but bad point. According to the Census Bureau, Butler county's population grew by 3.4% in 2000-2003 to 180,000 compared to just 0.7% for the state as a whole. And Butler county borders on Allegheny county.

However, Beaver county, which also borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.5% to 179,000. Armstrong county, which borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.0% to 72,000. Westmoreland county to Allegheny's east saw its population drop 0.5% to 368,000. Allegheny itself lost 1.6% of its population to 1.261 million. That alone accounts for several times more than the change in Butler. Other counties in Southern and Western Pennsylvania losing population are Fayette (-1.7%), Greene (-0.7%), Lawrence (-1.3%), Mercer (-0.3%), Crawford (-0.6%), Erie (-0.3%), Somerset (-0.8%), Cambria (-2.1%), Indiana (-0.6%), Clearfield (-0.6%), Clarion (-1.3%), Venango (-1.7%), Warren (-2.4%), McKean (-1.5%), Elk (-2.3%) and Blair (-1.5%).

Not a single one of the 8 counties surrouding Butler saw its population increase from 2000-2003.

By contrast the Southeastern & Eastern counties are growing, such as York (+3.4%), Lancaster (+2.6%), Chester (+5.5%), Montgomery (+2.9%), Bucks (+2.6%), Berks (+3.1%), Northampton (+4.2%), Lehigh (+2.7%), Carbon (+2.3%), Monroe (+11.4%), Pike (+12.7%), and Wayne (+2.9%).

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/pennsylvania_map.html

Draw a straight line east from Harrisburg to Allentown, then north from Allentown to Scranton, and not a single county falling to the south or east of that line besides Phildelphia does not show growth. A majority of counties lying to the north or west of that line, however, are shrinking. The further west you get, the more dire the situation becomes. It is of no small wonder (and this is one of the strangest things about American politics) how many of these counties, in the Pennsylvania "T", continue to support a party whose economic policies have persistently and reliably contributed to the destruction of their communities over 30 years. Such an instance of electoral self-destruction would rarely be found anywhere in the world. In any case, the future of the state (at least in voting numbers) seems to be towards the SE.

Damn you and your "census data". 

I suppose you are right in that that is in fact what the census does show.  I'll amend what I said earlier:

Younger people are acctually starting to move back into the Pittsburgh area.  I have observed this myself.  Most of the population loss is for "New Deal Die Off".  Thus, explaining the increased margin of the Republican vote.  In a few years, the treand will probably balance out.

Younger people are moving in, eh? Wasn't Pittsburgh named the worst city for singles? hehe. But you are correct, the metro area is really losing population because there's SO many old people who are dying off.

[Beet]

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You could be right about that. Having not visited the area myself since 2000 (and that was only to see Carnegie Mellon), I really can't say. Pittsburgh is not behaving like other big cities in trending Democrat... it is trending slightly Republican, and the suburbs are trending major Republican. That could be explained by the New Dealers dying off.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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Although it's starting from a much higher startpoint than pretty much any other city

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Up to a point (it certainly seems to be the case in Westmoreland county) but the increased importence of social issues and the fact that Kerry basically failed to campaign on economic issues towards the end is also a reason (although it can be overstated).