battleground states in 2020?
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  battleground states in 2020?
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Author Topic: battleground states in 2020?  (Read 15468 times)
Reignman
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« on: February 16, 2005, 06:52:03 PM »

(ignore the distribution of electoral votes)




possible election result?

This would give the election to the Democrats, though not by the margin shown with the current electoral votes distribution, due to the general north to south trend electoral votes have taken over the last few decades.

I'm guessing this is what it'll be like based on some basic trends that I see (long-term and shorter term) with some of the states.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2005, 07:04:45 PM »

I know many Democrats fantasize about Virginia going Dem, but the idea of NC, MO and AR going that way is new to me.

What do you see that make you think they are on their way into play?
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True Democrat
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« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2005, 08:25:46 PM »

I know many Democrats fantasize about Virginia going Dem, but the idea of NC, MO and AR going that way is new to me.

What do you see that make you think they are on their way into play?

North Carolina and Virginia are definately going to be a swing state in the future.  However, Missouri and Arkansas are trending Republican.
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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2005, 08:35:00 PM »

Please stop putting Virginia and North Carolina as battleground, much less swing democrat, there is simply to sense to it.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2005, 09:39:45 PM »

Please stop putting Virginia and North Carolina as battleground, much less swing democrat, there is simply to sense to it.

Virginia is, albeit very slowly, drifting towards the Democrats relative to the national average. However, trends like that rarely last long enough to solidify.

This is primarily due to Fairfax County, by the way.
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danwxman
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« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2005, 10:11:10 PM »

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.
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Erc
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« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2005, 11:05:14 PM »

The number following the party is the percentage of the vote the other party would have to win nationally in order to take the state.

Alabama:  Republican 59-67
Alaska:  Republican 63-72
Arizona:  Republican 53-56
Arkansas:  Republican 52-56
California:  Democrat 54-59
Colorado:  Republican 52 - Democrat 54
Connecticut:  Democrat 53.5-59
Delaware:  Democrat 52-57
DC:  Democrat 87-95
Florida:  Republican 56 - Democrat 52
Georgia:  Republican 56-59
Hawaii:  Democrat 53-60
Idaho:  Republican 66-74
Illinois:  Democrat 55-58.5
Indiana:  Republican 57.5 - 62
Iowa:  Republican 51 - Democrat 52
Kansas:  Republican 58-66
Kentucky:  Republican 57-62
Louisiana:  Republican 53-62
Maine:  Democrat 52-58
Maryland:  Democrat 55-60.5
Massachusetts:  Democrat 60-67
Michigan:  Democrat 51-54.5
Minnesota:  Republican 52 - Democrat 57
Mississippi:  Republican 57-61
Missouri:  Republican 51.5-53.5
Montana:  Republican 56-67
Nebraska:  Republican 64-67
Nevada: Republican 53 - Democrat 55
New Hampshire:  Republican 51 - Democrat 54
New Jersey:  Democrat 52-59
New Mexico:  Republican 51.5 -  Democrat 53
New York:  Democrat 57-63
North Carolina:  Republican 53.5-57
North Dakota:  Republican 59-67
Ohio:  Republican 53 - Democrat 52.5
Oklahoma:  Republican 63-69
Oregon:  Republican 50.5 - Democrat 57.5
Pennsylvania:  Democrat 50.5 - 54.5
Rhode Island:  Democrat 57-66
South Carolina:  Republican 56-59
South Dakota:  Democrat 57-63
Tennessee:  Republican 54-58
Texas: Republican 58-63
Utah:  Republican 67.5-75
Vermont:  Democrat 57-67
Virginia:  Republican 54- Democrat 52
Washington: Democrat 52.5-57.5
West Virginia:  Republican 53-57.5 [no matter what Al says]
Wisconsin: Republican 51 - Democrat 53
Wyoming:  Republican 65-72

Swing States:

Strong Lean Democrat:
Delaware
Maine
New Jersey
Washington

Lean Democrat:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Minnesota

Edge Democrat:
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Mexico
Nevada
Colorado

Edge Republican:
Ohio
Virginia
Florida

Lean Republican:
Missouri

Strong Lean Republican:
Arkansas

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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2005, 04:56:38 AM »

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2005, 05:01:06 AM »

All this trending crap is braindead. Are you all accountants or something?
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2005, 05:02:23 AM »

All this trending crap is braindead. Are you all accountants or something?

Actually that's what I studied.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2005, 07:13:58 AM »

I would say that Colorodo and Nevada are drifting to the Democrats quickly enough to be on the Dem side by 2020. Virginia is too but hav ea longer way to go. North Carolina has an even longer way to go.

States that voted for Bush but are likely to be(weak perhaps) lean Democrat by, say, 2020:

Nevada

Colorado

New Mexico

States that voted for Bush but are likely to be battlegrounds in 2020:

Iowa

Florida

Ohio (?)

Virginia

States that voted for Kerry but will lean Republican

None

States that voted for Kerry but will be battlegrounds

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Michigan (?)

Minnesota (?)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2005, 07:17:46 AM »

All this trending crap is braindead. Are you all accountants or something?

Actually that's what I studied.

No Comment Wink
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danwxman
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2005, 01:28:05 AM »

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.
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Beet
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2005, 03:36:25 AM »

The middle class vs. the "new populists":

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2005, 03:44:44 AM »

The middle class vs. the "new populists":



Interesting
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Alcon
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« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2005, 03:47:48 AM »



Consider that this was the result in 1980, it's safe to say that it's a mystery what states will be battlegrounds in the 2020 election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2005, 03:49:24 AM »

Consider that this was the result in 1980, it's safe to say that it's a mystery what states will be battlegrounds in the 2020 election.

True. Especially the people who are just drawing trend lines from last year's results...
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DanielX
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« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2005, 05:12:21 AM »



Consider that this was the result in 1980, it's safe to say that it's a mystery what states will be battlegrounds in the 2020 election.

Uhm.. Alcon, Carter won DC...
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Alcon
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« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2005, 05:20:59 AM »



Consider that this was the result in 1980, it's safe to say that it's a mystery what states will be battlegrounds in the 2020 election.

Uhm.. Alcon, Carter won DC...

no, democrat conspiracy
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2005, 12:44:19 PM »

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.
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danwxman
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« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2005, 01:49:10 PM »

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2005, 02:06:27 PM »

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.
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BobOMac2k2
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« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2005, 02:18:53 PM »

I seriously hope Democrats dont win in 2020...unless its a re-election
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True Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2005, 04:01:31 PM »

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

I am almost positive the Pittsburgh area is losing population faster than the Philadelphia area.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2005, 04:51:23 PM »

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

Not entirely true.  Why do you think Montco GOPers are getting pissed over new developments?  Dem registration out there has skyrocketed in 2004.
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