Quinnipiac National Poll: Hillary leads Christie, Rubio & Ryan by at least 8

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45-46

...

45-37 Clinton/Christie
50-38 Clinton/Ryan
50-34 Clinton/Rubio

40-43 Biden/Christie
45-42 Biden/Ryan
45-38 Biden/Rubio

28-45 Cuomo/Christie
37-42 Cuomo/Ryan
37-37 Cuomo/Rubio

From February 27 - March 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,944 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1861

[Tender Branson]

Considering that these are the likely "numbers where the race is right now" nationally, then Hillary's leads against Rubio and Ryan in Georgia and Texas (which PPP showed) might be accurate.

GA would be 7-12% more GOP than the nation, using PPP's and Quinnipiac's numbers.

TX would be 14% more GOP than the nation ...

and so on ...

[Tender Branson]

LA would be 12 points more GOP, KS would be 20 points more GOP than the nation, comparing PPP's and Quinnipiacs numbers.

It would mean that if Hillary won nationally by 4 like Obama, LA would be GOP+8.

So, a strong improvement for Hillary over the Romney+17 figure.

[Tender Branson]

In WI on the other hand, Ryan is down by only 8 in the PPP poll, but down 12 nationally.

This might be an indicator of a home-state effect, if he ran for President himself, rather than being just VP.

[Tender Branson]

In NJ, Christie does also 4 points better than nationally.

Here we can even compare 2 Quinnipiac polls.

Also, a possible home-state effect.

There was another NJ poll by PPP though, which showed Hillary 12% ahead of Christie. So, this would make NJ 4% more DEM than the nation.

[Tender Branson]

Hillary would also make Alaska trending more DEM:

In PPP's Alaska poll, Clinton led Rubio by 1 and trailed Christie by 1.

This makes AK about 9-14 points more GOP than the nation.

But it was 18 points in 2012.

[Tender Branson]

MT: was 18 points more GOP than the nation in 2012

Would now be 19-24 points more GOP, with Hillary.

[Tender Branson]

KY was R+26 in 2012.

Would be just R+8 now in the Hillary vs. Rubio scenario.

So, KY would have been within 4 points, if Hillary won by 4 nationally like Obama.