Predict who will be elected governor in Nov 2014 in each of the following states

[Donerail]

Definitely not Weatherford. Florida only allows you one term as speaker of the house, Weatherford isn't going to waste his in a primary which would have him outspent 10 to 1 on a good day.

Schorsch sums it up far better than I could.

Who said they had to come from the political arena? Scott himself had no political experience outside of a pressure group he founded. Some candidate that isn't on our radar may very well beat him if the Tea Party throws its support around him/her.

Interesting enough, but it'd be a wealthy self-funder against a wealthy self-funder governor. Pretty null. Can't think of anyone who'd do it either.

[free my dawg]

I'll try to do every state...
2013 elections
New Jersey- Chris Christie
Virginia- Terry McAuliffe

2014- Elections-
Alabama- Robert J. Bentley
Alaska- Sean Parnell
Arizona- Tom Horne
Arkansas- Mike Ross
California- Jerry Brown
Colorado-John Hickenlooper
Connecticut- Chris Shays
Florida- Nan Rich
Georgia- Nathan Deal
Hawaii- Shan Tsutsi
Idaho- Butch Otter
Illinois- Lisa Madigan
Iowa- Chet Culver
Kansas- Sam Brownback
Maine- Mike Michaud
Maryland- Doug Gansler
Massachusetts- Martha Coakley
Michigan- Gary Peters
Minnesota- Mark Dayton
Nebraska- Don Stenberg
Nevada- Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire- Charlie Bass
New Mexico- Susana Martinez
New York- Andrew Cuomo
Ohio- Richard Cordray
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin
Oregon- John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island- Gina Raimondo
South Carolina- Nikki Haley
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard
Tennessee- Bill Haslam
Texas- Bob Deuell (St. Sen)
Vermont- Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin- Scott Walker
Wyoming- Matt Mead

VERY odd picks. I REALLY don't see Branstad losing to Culver, and Malloy's race tilts towards him. Plus the fact that Coakley declined a race in 2014, and she would probably lose to a strong Republican candidate. Hassan looks good so far, but she's been governor for two months, so anything can change. But for now, her electoral prospects look good and her approval numbers are similar to Lynch's.

[Old Man Svensson]

Just for completion's sake, let's have a stab at this...

2013
New Jersey: Chris Christie
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe

2014
Alabama: Robert J. Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Bill Halter
California: Gavin Newsom
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Tom Foley
Florida: Charlie Crist (AUGH)
Georgia: Kasim Reed (angling an outside chance here, as Deal is living scum)
Hawaii: Colleen Hanabusa
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Kirk Dillard/Lisa Madigan (with Quinn and without, respesctively)
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Carl Brewer
Maine: Eliot Cutler
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Virg Bernero
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Chris Beutler (really outside prediction )
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: John Kasich
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Cindy Hill (with Mead making for the Senate, bearing in mind Enzi's almost certain retirement)

[publicunofficial]

First name is who I think will win, second name (if there is one) is someone who I hope will win.

2013
New Jersey: Chris Christie
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe

2014
Alabama: Robert J. Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Richard Carmona
Arkansas: Bill Halter
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Dan Malloy
Florida: Charlie Crist
Georgia: Nathan Deal (Jason Carter)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (Colleen Hanabusa)
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Lisa Madigan
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Sam Brownback (Carl Brewer)
Maine: Eliot Cutler
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Mark Schauer
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Jon Bruning
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: John Kasich (Richard Cordray)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Kathleen Kane
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (Vincent Sheheen)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott (Rick Perry, just so he can run for President again in 2016 and make Republicans look bad)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Matt Mead

[Old Man Svensson]

Nebraska: Jon Bruning

Has ruled out running.

[LeBron]

2013 Elections:
New Jersey: Chris Christie
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe (Switch to Democrats)

2014 Elections:
Alabama: Robert Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Neil Giuliano (Switch to Democrats)
Arkansas: Mark Darr (Switch to Republicans)
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Conneticut: Dan Malloy
Florida: Charlie Crist (Switch to Democrats)
Georgia: Nathan Deal
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Pat Quinn
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Carl Brewer (Switch to Democrats)
Maine: Mike Michaud (Switch to Democrats)
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Gary Peters (Switch to Democrats)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Rick Sheehy
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: Betty Sutton (Switch to Democrats - Currently tied in the polls with Cordray)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Kathleen Kane or Ed Rendell (Switch to Democrats)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (Switch to Democrats)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Rick Perry
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (Switch to Democrats - Beats Walker in a close election)
Wyoming: Matt Mead

Which from my projections, would be 11 seat switches, 10 to Democrats & 1 to the Republicans which would be a net gain of +9 for the Dem's giving Shumlin & the Democrats the majority in the governorships once more 28-22.

While we're at it, let's also do 2015 & 2016:

2015 Elections:
Kentucky: Jack Conway
Louisiana: David Vitter
Mississippi: Phil Bryant

2016 Elections:
Delaware: Beau Biden
Indiana: Mike Pence
Missouri: Chris Koster
Montana: Steve Bullock
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan?
North Carolina: Walter Dalton beats out McCrory this time
North Dakota: Jack Dalrymple
Utah: Gary Herbert
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Washington: Jay Inslee
West Virginia: Rick Thompson

[publicunofficial]

Nebraska: Jon Bruning

Has ruled out running.

sh**t, must have missed that. Then Jon Bruning I guess.

[seanNJ9]

Kathleen Kane has already said she's not running. She's been doing her current job literally for 60 days.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

California: Jerry Brown
Texas: Greg Abbott
Florida: Pam Bondi or Ron Klein
Illinois: Dan Rutherford
Pennsylvania:
Ohio: John Kasich
Michigan: Bill Schuette

I really don't think Snyder's going to run again in Michigan.  If Rick Scott isn't primaried in Florida, that seat is as good as lost for the GOP.  Madigan probably won't run in Illinois, and Quinn is a dead man walking.  And if the current polling in Ohio, shocking as it is, holds up, Kasich will probably be reelected as well.

[Donerail]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Barbi is polling roughly 25 points behind Scott and Klein would neither run nor win a primary.

[morgieb]

California: Brown
Texas: Perry
Florida: Crist
Illinois: Madigan
Pennsylvania: Schwartz
Ohio: Kasich
Michigan: Schauer

[free my dawg]

Might as well go further than that and do them all:

2013
New Jersey: Chris Christie
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe

2014
Alabama: Robert J. Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Dan Malloy
Florida: Pam Iorio
Georgia: Nathan Deal (hate this guy, but he will make it)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (Bold prediction: Djou runs and gives him a run for his money)
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Lisa Madigan
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Sam Brownback
Maine: Paul LePage (HATE this outcome, but with Cutler likely to run the anti-LePage vote looks split again)
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Mark Schauer
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Don Stenberg
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: John Kasich
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Nikki Haley
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Matt Mead (I see him deferring to Lummis for Enzi's seat)

2015 Elections:
Kentucky: Jack Conway
Louisiana: David Vitter
Mississippi: Phil Bryant

2016 Elections:
Delaware: Beau Biden
Indiana: Mike Pence
Missouri: Chris Koster
Montana: Steve Bullock
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (if she doesn't opt for Ayotte), if not then
North Carolina: Heath Shuler
North Dakota: Jack Dalrymple
Utah: Gary Herbert
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Washington: Jay Inslee
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant

EDIT: Colors mean shifts. Done in Atlas format.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Some new developments, including Madigan not running in IL, so feel free to change your predictions accordingly.

[free my dawg]

Pretty much the same. Swap out Daley for Madigan and probably Crist for Iorio.

[publicunofficial]

2013
New Jersey: Chris Christie
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe

2014
Alabama: Robert J. Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Fred DuVal (Hoping Greg Stanton runs)
Arkansas: Mike Ross
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Dan Malloy
Florida: Charlie Crist
Georgia: Nathan Deal
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Bill Brady
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Sam Brownback
Maine: Mike Michaud
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Mark Schauer
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Rick Sheehy (Just to deny Don Stenberg another race)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: John Kasich
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Matt Mead

[TX Conservative Dem]

Here are my predictions on who'll get elected governor in the respective states in 2014:
Texas (my homestate)-OPEN (now that Perry is not seeking 4th term): State AG Greg Abbott (R), who has won 5 consecutive statewide elections in 1996 and he's likely serving 2 terms from Jan. 20, 2015 to Jan. 17, 2023 because I don't see him breaking Perry's 14-year record anytime soon.

Alabama-Bob Bentley (R-incumbent): no Democrat has won the governorship since 1998 nor won statewide office since 2006, so enough said. GOP HOLD.

Arizona-OPEN (Brewer barred from seeking 2nd full four-year term despite serving out Napolitano's term): AZ Secy of State Ken Bennett (R).

Alaska-Sean Parnell (R-incumbent)

Arkansas-OPEN: Asa Hutchison (R): the AR Dems are so disorganized and imploding (due to losing both chambers of the Arkansas General Assembly to the GOP in 2012) including former AR State Treasurer Martha Shoffner (D) resigning from office due to taking kickbacks, etc.,

California-Jerry Brown (D-incumbent) winning 4th term: I'm betting in 2018, State AG Kamala Harris (D) replaces him as governor while Newsome goes for US Senator (avoiding primary bloodbath).

Colorado-John Hickenlooper (D-incumbent) secures 2nd term, but barely.

Georgia-Nathan Deal (R-incumbent): the GA Dems' best shot would be in 2018.

Florida-Former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) regains his old job and wins again in 2018, becoming Florida's first 3-term governor (he previously served 1 term from 2007-2011).

Hawaii-Abercrombie (D-incumbent)

Illinois-Bill Daley (D): Quinn is too hated and despised.

Nevada-Brian Sandoval (R-incumbent)

New Mexico-Susana Martinez (R-incumbent): although it won't surprise me if she runs for the US Senate in 2018.

NY State-Cuomo (D) wins by a bigger margin than 2010 (maybe get 70 percent) in 2014 and runs for the White House in 2016.

Maryland-OPEN: Anthony G. Brown (D) becomes the Old Line State's first African American governor and the nation's 4th African American governor in the post-reconstruction era following Wilder (VA), Patrick (MA) and Paterson (NY State).

Oregon-John Kitzhaber (D-incumbent) wins re-election, hopefully with 55 percent or more.

Oklahoma-Mary Fallin (R-incumbent) wins BIG again, sweeping 77 counties in 2014. However, once Coburn retires from the Senate in 2016, it wouldn't shock me if the GOP recruits her to run for the US Senate.

Wisconsin-Scott Walker (R-incumbent) wins by one of the biggest landslide margins since Tommy Thompson in 1998.

[JerryArkansas]

Here are my predictions on who'll get elected governor in the respective states in 2014:
Texas (my homestate)-OPEN (now that Perry is not seeking 4th term): State AG Greg Abbott (R), who has won 5 consecutive statewide elections in 1996 and he's likely serving 2 terms from Jan. 20, 2015 to Jan. 17, 2023 because I don't see him breaking Perry's 14-year record anytime soon.

Alabama-Bob Bentley (R-incumbent): no Democrat has won the governorship since 1998 nor won statewide office since 2006, so enough said. GOP HOLD.

Arizona-OPEN (Brewer barred from seeking 2nd full four-year term despite serving out Napolitano's term): AZ Secy of State Ken Bennett (R).

Alaska-Sean Parnell (R-incumbent)

Arkansas-OPEN: Asa Hutchison (R): the AR Dems are so disorganized and imploding (due to losing both chambers of the Arkansas General Assembly to the GOP in 2012) including former AR State Treasurer Martha Shoffner (D) resigning from office due to taking kickbacks, etc.,

California-Jerry Brown (D-incumbent) winning 4th term: I'm betting in 2018, State AG Kamala Harris (D) replaces him as governor while Newsome goes for US Senator (avoiding primary bloodbath).

Colorado-John Hickenlooper (D-incumbent) secures 2nd term, but barely.

Georgia-Nathan Deal (R-incumbent): the GA Dems' best shot would be in 2018.

Florida-Former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) regains his old job and wins again in 2018, becoming Florida's first 3-term governor (he previously served 1 term from 2007-2011).

Hawaii-Abercrombie (D-incumbent)

Illinois-Bill Daley (D): Quinn is too hated and despised.

Nevada-Brian Sandoval (R-incumbent)

New Mexico-Susana Martinez (R-incumbent): although it won't surprise me if she runs for the US Senate in 2018.

NY State-Cuomo (D) wins by a bigger margin than 2010 (maybe get 70 percent) in 2014 and runs for the White House in 2016.

Maryland-OPEN: Anthony G. Brown (D) becomes the Old Line State's first African American governor and the nation's 4th African American governor in the post-reconstruction era following Wilder (VA), Patrick (MA) and Paterson (NY State).

Oregon-John Kitzhaber (D-incumbent) wins re-election, hopefully with 55 percent or more.

Oklahoma-Mary Fallin (R-incumbent) wins BIG again, sweeping 77 counties in 2014. However, once Coburn retires from the Senate in 2016, it wouldn't shock me if the GOP recruits her to run for the US Senate.

Wisconsin-Scott Walker (R-incumbent) wins by one of the biggest landslide margins since Tommy Thompson in 1998.

First off, welcome to the Forum, and I like your predictions except for one thing, Arkansas.  With Bill Halter dropping out soon and avoiding a bloody primary, I think he can win it.  I also think the dems have a chance to retake the house chamber with a lot of reps being todd akin types.

[TX Conservative Dem]

You're welcome and thank you for welcoming me to the forum.

I have a question to ask, how do I edit my profile to add my biography and photo of myself ?

[hopper]

Under current conditions, no way Scott and Snyder are reelected.

You don't seem to be familiar with the concept. Rick Scott is being opposed by the good folks of the Florida Democratic Party, who have an exceedingly spectacular talent for losing elections they really have no business losing. If there was a version of American Idol for mismanagement and general ineptitude, they'd win easily. Rick Scott has money and fairly decent organization; the FL Dems have neither. Someone like Charlie could make it a race, but Scott is not so easily discounted.

I honestly don't even know if Scott will even make it past the primary. The Tea Party's already gearing up against him for the Medicaid expansion.

But Snyder? No chance in hell. With a deep Democratic bench (Peters, Schauer, Bernero), they can fairly easily flip the seat if they can make right-to-work a big issue in the campaign.

I think Scott should just resign at the end of his term. I don't think he has a shot to win re-election in FL.

[TX Conservative Dem]

No Democrat has won the governorship since the late Lawton Chiles in 1994, so Crist will have to explain why he should have be given back the governorship considering his 1st term was as a GOPer then Indy.

[morgieb]

2013
New Jersey: Chris Christie
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe

2014
Alabama: Robert J. Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Tom Foley
Florida: Charlie Crist
Georgia: Nathan Deal
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Bill Daley
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Sam Brownback
Maine: Paul LePage
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Mark Schauer
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Don Stenberg
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: John Kasich
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Nikki Haley
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Matt Mead

[Rocky Rockefeller]

California: Brown
Texas: Abbott
Florida: Crist
Illinois: Rutherford
Pennsylvania: Schwartz
Ohio: Kasich
Michigan: Schauer

[Indy Texas]

CA - Jerry Brown (D)
TX - Greg Abbott (R)
FL - Charlie Crist (D)
IL - Bill Daley (D)
PA - Allyson Schwartz (D)
OH - John Kasich (R)
MI - Mark Schauer (D)

[PolitiJunkie]

CA - Jerry Brown (D)
TX - Greg Abbott (R)
FL - Charlie Crist (D)
IL - Bill Daley (D)
PA - Allyson Schwartz (D)
OH - John Kasich (R)
MI - Mark Schauer (D)

[Old Man Svensson]

2013
New Jersey: Chris Christie
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe

2014
Alabama: Robert J. Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Tom Foley
Florida: Charlie Crist (why)
Georgia: Kasim Reed
Hawaii: Charles Djou
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Dan Rutherford
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Carl Brewer
Maine: Eliot Cutler
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Virg Bernero
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Tom Carlson
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: John Kasich
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island: Scott Avedisian
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Rita Meyer*

*Matt Mead is in positively astounding legal trouble after he made the education superintendent a crony position instead of an elected one. He's actually had to beg the Supreme Court of Wyoming not to hear the court case against him. He's going to start lining up serious primary opponents eventually, and in the end, my guess is he's going to be taken out.