UK local elections, 2013

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shrewsbury Town Council: Labour 7, Con 5, LDem 5

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When looking at the Kent results earlier I'd mostly just noticed the purple on Thanet (insert 1066 And All That jokes here there and everywhere), but they also won all three Folkestone divisions. There are several patterns to UKIP success, and, yeah. No such luck for them in Dover but Labour are reasonably well organised there. Which also fits in with the general pattern.

[Supersonic]

The UKIP leader on Norfolk Council rules out any 'deal' with the other parties there. So I guess a Conservative minority administration it is.

[You kip if you want to...]

Apparently Labour didnt lose a single seat to UKIP yesterday. I would've expected UKIP to take a few.

[Leftbehind]

I don't think that's true, I'm sure I seen one or two. Either way, Labour barely had any seats that weren't safe Labour by 2009, so I don't think it says that much. If you base it off seats they held before 2009 then you see UKIP took a fair few.

These elections are kind of annoying, because even 2005 (and earlier) comparisons are pointless: turnout's either halved since then or the councils have radically changed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In a lot of places Labour county councillors were kept afloat by General Election turnout even as local organisation went to hell.

Apparently Labour didnt lose a single seat to UKIP yesterday. I would've expected UKIP to take a few.

No, we lost one in Ramsgate.

[joevsimp]

plus, a lot of their strong showings have been in the important southeastern marginals, Thanet, Basildon, Harlow, Yarmouth, Lowestoft.  I'm surprised that they did't win more in Herts though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Average vote shares for the multi-member divisions in Shropshire where it's necessary to work such figures out:

Bayston Hill, Column & Sutton

Labour 48.5
Con 25.5
UKIP 19.3
LDem 6.6

Bridgnorth East & Astley Abbotts

Con 46.9
UKIP 32.0
LDem 21.1

Bridgnorth West & Tasley

Con 48.0
UKIP 31.6
LDem 20.4

Church Stretton & Craven Arms

Con 54.2
LDem 32.6
Labour 13.2

Gobowen, Selattyn & Weston Rhyn

Con 54.8
Ind 46.2

Market Drayton West

Con 36.2
UKIP 32.0
Labour 24.5
BNP 7.2

Oswestry East

Ind 33.0
Labour 29.8
Con 28.0
BNP 9.1

Full results here: http://new.shropshire.gov.uk/elections-2013/unitary/results-full-text-list

[minionofmidas]

Gobowen, Selattyn & Weston Rhyn

Con 54.8
Ind 46.2

These people get 101% of votes in a county of a country they don't even live in. I'm jealous.

[afleitch]

Rallings and Thrasher have their vote shares out

LAB 29
CON 26
UKIP 22
LD 13

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gobowen, Selattyn & Weston Rhyn

Con 54.8
Ind 46.2

These people get 101% of votes in a county of a country they don't even live in. I'm jealous.

lol: should not do things with numbers late at night, ever.

[You kip if you want to...]

2014's seats look good for Labour and UKIP.

The met/London wards which were last up in 2010, as well as the councils they vastly underperformed in in 2011. UKIP should also pull some blinders in the latter.

We'll get a fairer picture of what's happening in England as well as these are a far more diverse set of councils.

[Andrea]

2014's seats look good for Labour and UKIP.

The met/London wards which were last up in 2010, as well as the councils they vastly underperformed in in 2011. UKIP should also pull some blinders in the latter.

Turnout can be a factor. Last time they had GE turnout, next year it will likely be halved

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And there are places where that will actually hurt us rather a lot.

[joevsimp]

2014's seats look good for Labour and UKIP.

The met/London wards which were last up in 2010, as well as the councils they vastly underperformed in in 2011. UKIP should also pull some blinders in the latter.

Turnout can be a factor. Last time they had GE turnout, next year it will likely be halved

yes, but last time this year's seats were up, UKIP came second in the European Parliament elections at the same time, next year they'll have that boost again

[Leftbehind]

2014's seats look good for Labour and UKIP.

The met/London wards which were last up in 2010, as well as the councils they vastly underperformed in in 2011. UKIP should also pull some blinders in the latter.

We'll get a fairer picture of what's happening in England as well as these are a far more diverse set of councils.

I'm not sure Labour hasn't reversed from its 2011 strength, and as has already been mentioned, a halving of turnout is hardly good news for them.

[You kip if you want to...]

Are the 2014 locals being pushed back to June as well because of the Euros, like last time?

[Supersonic]

Are the 2014 locals being pushed back to June as well because of the Euros, like last time?

They're being held on the same day as the Euros as far as I'm aware.

22nd of May if I'm not mistaken.

[MaxQue]

Are the 2014 locals being pushed back to June as well because of the Euros, like last time?

Euros will probably be in May due to Pentecost.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More Shropshire stuff...

UKIP ran candidates for several county divisions in Shrewsbury but did not contest the Town Council elections. Shrewsbury TC ward boundaries are the same as the divisional boundaries, except for the two wards that are part of a three-member division with Bayston Hill. Which is unfortunate because that was one of the divisions they contested. So, anyway...

Abbey CC - Lab 154, Con 247, LDem 675, Green 61, UKIP 164,
Abbey TC - Lab 158, Con 283, LDem 744, Green 96

Copthorne CC - Lab 240, Con 569, LDem 101, UKIP 234
Copthorne TC - Lab 283, Con 697, LDem 142

Underdale CC - Lab 162, Con 78, LDem 661, UKIP 122
Underdale TC - Lab 159, Con 83, LDem 703, Green 78

Playing a similar game with different divisions...

Bagley CC - Lab 324, Con 354, LDem 346, Green 59
Bagley TC - Lab 347, Con 347, LDem 374

Radbrook CC - Lab 302, Con 592, LDem 398
Radbrook TC - Lab 505, Con 735

Sundorne CC - Lab 545, Con 219, BNP 59
Sundorne TC - Lab 585, Con 222

And slightly different, but related...

Harlescott CC - Lab 604, Con 275
Harlescott TC - Lab 550, Con 306

The Labour candidate for the County division has represented the area on and off for about thirty years.

[Leftbehind]

Borrowing from other people's work (Andrew Teale's collated 2005 & 2009 documents, UKPR's Andy JS spreadsheet and parliamentary documents to get the turnout figures:

2005         2009        2013       c/09   c/05
Con 39.3%   Con 44.4%   Con 34.4%   -10.0    -4.9
Lib 27.7%   Lib 25.0%   Lab 21.6%    +8.5    -3.9
Lab 25.5%   Lab 13.1%   UKI 20.0%   +15.5   +19.1
 Grn 2.3%    UKI 4.5%   Lib 13.8%   -11.2   -14.1
 UKI 0.9%    Grn 4.5%    Grn 3.5%    -1.0    +1.2
 BNP 0.2%    BNP 2.3%    Oth 6.8%    -1.8    +2.4
 Oth 4.1%    Oth 6.2%      

2005 votes cast: 11,075,338 (avg. 63.8%)
2009 votes cast: 7,640,674 (avg. 39.2%)
2013 votes cast: 5,897,821 - 30%? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, turnout was really quite impressively sh!t, particularly considering the areas voting. How does it compare to last year?

[Leftbehind]

Last year's was estimated to be 32%, and that wasn't much over the record low set in the 1998 locals of 29%. Firmly back to the mid to late 90's territory it seems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Winning - leading in certain multi-member divisions - party by division. Standard key. Note that most of the really dark Tory - 45% majority - divisions were actually unopposed (exceptions: Oswestry West - the only other candidate was Nick Griffin's daughter, Severn Valley - rural area between Shrewsbury and Broseley, and Loton - rural area on the Border north of what is now the safest LibDem division in the county).

Basically anything and everything can be explained.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shrewsbury zoom-in.