UK local elections, 2013

[You kip if you want to...]

Any actual predictions in terms of numbers?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Elsewhere I've started to make a few predictions - if you can call them that and you probably shouldn't - for Shropshire. I obviously won't get round to doing all divisions, but, meh. Anyway...

Clun - extremely rural, very pretty and quite insular area on the Welsh border (including the tragically named village of New Invention). Largest and only town is Clun, and even that place is tiny. The local dialect is a thing of wonder. As well as Clun town (lol) and surrounds, the division includes the Clun Forest (which is a rural as places come on this Earth and which includes the tragically named village of New Invention), and the area around Bucknell which has a denser settlement pattern (presumably because there's a railway, with stations even!) than the rest of the division. Anyway, this was a close contest in 2009, with the Bucknell-based LibDem incumbent narrowly beating a Tory from Lydbury North (which is outside the division. Probably this is why she lost) who had previously held the old Kemp Valley ward on South Shropshire DC. The contest this year is a rematch, though there are also UKIP and Green candidates to consider. The UKIP candidate is from off (distant Bridgnorth, which is practically foreign) and will therefore poll badly. Would assume a LibDem hold is more likely than not, but I'd be hesitant about actually predicting that, as such. Clun is weird.

Bishops Castle - As well as Bishops Castle (known locally as 'The Castle' and generally pronounced in a way that's difficult to really describe with a standard alphabet), which has a bit of a strange almost bohemian feel to it in spite of it being a quintessential remote Marches market town (this has been reflected in a strong Green Party vote on past occasions), it includes countless tiny agricultural settlements on the western edge of the Long Mynd and the Onny Valley (Ratlinghope, Norbury, Asterton and so on) and the larger settlements in the Kemp Valley (the main one is Lydbury North) and a small part of what might be thought of (lol) as the greater Clun district, west of Bishops Castle. Most of these were closed villages, back in the day. And it shows. Most of the division is basically an old school Liberal area and was the fiefdom of the abrasive and charmless Peter Phillips, who came surprisingly close to losing in 2009 (though he was seriously ill at the time) and who's resignation in 2011 sparked a by-election that saw a big swing to his party. There are three candidates this time round, and all live in the division (the incumbent LibDem in Norbury, the Tory in Bishops Castle and the Green in Lydbury North - the Green in the by-election lived well outside the division). A comparatively easy LibDem hold would seem like the most likely outcome.

Chirbury & Worthen - another very rural (and absurdly pretty) area on the Welsh border, this division covers the Stiperstones and then runs west until it hits Offa's Dyke. More or less. As it also includes Mitchell's Fold, this is very much a division brought to you by Romanticism. The eastern half of the division used to be a lead mining area, with the last mine (Snailbeach) closing as recently as 1955, but most settlements are either agricultural or very agricultural. Anyway, in 2009 Heather Kidd (leader of South Shropshire DC until 2003, LibDem candidate for Ludlow at the 2010 General Election) managed to beat the Tory district councillor for Worthen, which was at least vaguely surprising as the Tories led across the division in 2007 when Kidd had not had the easiest of personal re-elections. Kidd is running for re-election against a Tory from Ratlinghope (which is just outside the division, on the other side of the Stiperstones) and will presumably win, things being as they are.

Church Stretton & Craven Arms - a less than entirely logical division comprised of the tourist town/retirement centre of Church Stretton, the smaller - and distinctly more proletarian - town (it is now actually officially a town) of Craven Arms, and a great sweep of comfortable agricultural settlements between the two, the largest of which is the now rather gentrified village of Wistanstow. Both the Tories and LibDems are very strong in Church Stretton (with the LibDems being stronger in the north of the town and the Tories the south), and both have sometimes been so in Craven Arms as well. Labour have always had the capacity (if not always organisation, candidates...) to poll strongly in Craven Arms but have very little support in the rest of the division (to risk understatement: Stretton is a place where Labour did well to poll around 10% or so before the advent of tactical voting in South Shropshire in 2001), while the Greens have an impressive recent history in Church Stretton but seem to have given up on electoral politics of late. Anyway, two Conservatives (one from each town) were returned in 2009, which was almost a surprise given the strong performance of an incumbent Tory district councillor running as an independent. One - previously a long serving County Councillor - died, and the Tories won the ensuing by-election comfortably (quite the contrast with certain other Shropshire by-elections). This time round the Tories are running their two incumbents (again, one from each town), the LibDems are also running two candidates from each town (one who lost in 2009 and in the by-election, one new candidate), and Labour are also running two, both new (one from the Corvedale - a part of it local to Craven Arms - and one from Ludlow). I suspect that a repeat of the by-election is the most likely outcome (and would be genuinely surprised to see neither Tory returned), but, all the same it should be noted both towns can be a little cranky at times. Maybe the Stretton LibDems will actually get lucky for once; stranger things have happened.

Corvedale - the awful Tory incumbent is unopposed, which is a pity. Just for completeness, I'll note that it's another absurdly pretty division, and is made up of the large agricultural valley of Corvedale (which is full on genepool Tory in places), the smaller agricultural valley of Apedale (where I used to live) and the very small agricultural valley of Hopedale. It includes a very large section of Wenlock Edge; there's also a link to Orwell. Last time round the non-Tory candidate was a right-wing independent locally believed to be perhaps a tad on the corrupt side.

Burnell - this is one of the safest divisions for the Tories in the whole county. It covers the area in between Church Stretton and Shrewsbury and so is obviously pretty geographically diverse. The southern end is very pretty with the only settlements being small farming villages with wonderful names like Plaish and Enchmarch - and gentrified former farming villages like Cardington - including Acton Burnell, that famous distorter of census statistics (it includes Concord College and so boosts minority statistics for the entire area) with a Parliamentary history. The northern end is less pretty; flatter, more functional landscapes, and large villages (Condover and Dorrington - the latter an increasingly grotesque monument to the need for better town/village planning policy in Shropshire) that are basically commuter settlements of Shrewsbury. The incumbent took 75% in a two way contest with a LibDem in 2009; same contest this year (different LibDem) and would have to commit murder to have much of a chance of losing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ludlow North - Ludlow has a certain image, it's probably fair to say. The morons in the bright red trousers with a mania for overpriced food and so on. Every single scrap of that Ludlow is in this division, which actually covers the west of the town and rather bizarrely stretches out into the nearby countryside as far as Bromfield (which isn't all that tiny). As well as Bromfield, it includes all of the old St Laurence's ward (which covered the bourgeois old town and some middle class residential areas further north and which was safely Tory) and about half or so of the old St Peters ward (a working class area that was solidly LibDem). The two wards had previously formed the Ludlow Town CC division, which was a safe LibDem seat (though not as safe as Ludlow Rural). The westwards extension to Bromfield and the loss of half (or whatever) of St Peters was obviously extremely beneficial to the Tories, but the margin by which the awful Rosanna Taylor-Smith defeated veteran LibDem councillor (district and county) Peter Corston was a little surprising, particularly given the 13% also polled by former Tory district councillor and... er... busybody... Graeme Perks. A Green candidate did pretty well (7.6%), though. A BNP candidate did not. The ballot this time round will be gloriously crowded. Taylor-Smith (full name: Rosanna Theresa Daphne Taylor-Smith) runs again, and is challenged by a new LibDem. There is also a Labour candidate, a Green, a Kipper (a real man of the people, needless to say), and a different independent, one described by the local rag as a 'colourful businesswoman... who was disqualified from Ludlow Town Council'. All the fun of the fair, methinks.

Ludlow East - the Other Ludlow. This is a working class division located (quite literally) on the wrong side of the tracks. It's made up of the other half of the St Peters ward and all of the Henley ward, which is basically the Sandpits. Most people in Shropshire associate the Sandpits with things like the gruesome murder of Trevor Bradley - a man euphemistically described as an 'antiques dealer' - twenty years ago (even if his charred remains were actually found at the other end of the county. The manner of his death sparked (har, har) an excellent local joke, that I won't repeat), which isn't exactly fair, but is indicative. This is an area with serious social problems. Anyways, the Henley ward generally saw close contests between LibDems and Independents, and was part of the Ludlow Rural division (very safe LibDem seat). If results for the LibDems in southern Shropshire towns were generally disastrous in 2009, they weren't in this division; 52% LibDem, 30% Tory, 9% BNP and 8% Labour (support for the latter two was presumably quite Sandpits-centric. The BNP had never run in Ludlow before and Labour hadn't for ages). The incumbent (Tracey Huffer; I can't remember if all the Huffers are related or if its just a very local name. Probably should have checked) is running again, and faces Tory and Labour candidates who aren't total unknowns locally and the Green that polled pretty well in Ludlow North last time. Presumably a safe LibDem hold, though past strange voting patterns shouldn't be entirely forgotten.

Ludlow South - the Boring Ludlow. This is a mostly suburban division with a substantial rural element. The suburban part is the old Ludlow Sheet with Ludford ward (humdrum suburbia with very little to say for it), the rural element is the area around Ashford Carbonell and stretches down to the Herefordshire border to pick up the delightfully named Woofferton. Ludlow Sheet with Ludford was a marginal ward that elected two LibDems in 2003 and a LibDem and a Tory in 2007. Ashford Carbonell was, for decades, the personal electoral property of Joe Meredith, a Tory and a powerful local powerbroker once upon a time. Despite that the two vote victory in 2009 of the awful Martin Taylor-Smith (he who stood so disastrously for the Tories at the 2001 General Election and who is also the husband of Rosanna Taylor-Smith) was a bit of a surprise, given the personal popularity of Viv Parry (then incumbent for Ludlow Rural and also Ludlow Sheet with Ludford; re-elected easily in the latter in 2007 despite the loss of the other seat) who is running again. Also running are the previously mentioned Graeme Perks (again as an Independent) and another Kipper. The unpopularity of the council makes this a fairly likely LibDem gain on paper, I think.

[YL]

Bishops Castle - As well as Bishops Castle (known locally as 'The Castle' and generally pronounced in a way that's difficult to really describe with a standard alphabet),

Not even the International Phonetic one?  I have no idea what south Shropshire accents sound like (even though I've been there a handful of times).

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Is there a reference to a certain elected Mayor here?

[You kip if you want to...]

Quite liked Labour's broadcast tonight. (Ed's coming off as less weird... or maybe that's just me.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEkGtTG0AtA

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not even the International Phonetic one?  I have no idea what south Shropshire accents sound like (even though I've been there a handful of times).

Oh, I'm sure you could represent it with something from that, yeah.

There's a lot of variation even in south Shropshire accents, but, in general, its a southern Marches accent (which you get in one form or another everywhere from Montgomery to the Forest of Dean), but with comparatively delicate sounds. So there's a burr, but its not generally all that strong and so on. There's also a tendency for vowels to go all over the place. Some really old people speak in a way that sounds oddly brittle, which has nothing to do with age.

If that helps, and it probably doesn't.

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Actually no, but he does seem the type.

[You kip if you want to...]

Couldn't imagine Cameron handling something like this well at all.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2013/apr/30/edmiliband-gordon-brown?CMP=twt_gu

[Phony Moderate]

ComRes has conducted a poll....

Tories - 31%
Labour - 24%
UKIP - 22%
Lib Dems - 12%

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-30/ukip-surge-to-22-of-vote-in-latest-comres-poll/

Wikipedia has some kind of PV figures for 2009, but those were (unless I'm mistaken) projections for how the results would have panned out in a general election so we can't compare them.

But yeah, it'll be an interesting night.

[You kip if you want to...]

ComRes has conducted a poll....

Tories - 31%
Labour - 24%
UKIP - 22%
Lib Dems - 12%

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-30/ukip-surge-to-22-of-vote-in-latest-comres-poll/

Wikipedia has some kind of PV figures for 2009, but those were (unless I'm mistaken) projections for how the results would have panned out in a general election so we can't compare them.

But yeah, it'll be an interesting night.

A 7% lead in these seats? Ack, I'd hate to be DC on Friday morning...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Local election polls are useless, ComRes polls are useless.

[Leftbehind]

ComRes has conducted a poll....

Tories - 31%
Labour - 24%
UKIP - 22%
Lib Dems - 12%

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-30/ukip-surge-to-22-of-vote-in-latest-comres-poll/

Wikipedia has some kind of PV figures for 2009, but those were (unless I'm mistaken) projections for how the results would have panned out in a general election so we can't compare them.

But yeah, it'll be an interesting night.

Yeah, the PNV projects how the entire country would vote if there were locals everywhere, so you'd need to compare them to the 2009 total votes, which would give:

Con 31% (-13)
Lab 24% (+11)
UKIP 22% (+18)
LD 12% (-13)
Green 4% (n/c)
BNP 1% (-1)

If those figures bore out, the Right would be doing collectively much better than 2009!

[countydurhamboy]

ComRes has conducted a poll....

Tories - 31%
Labour - 24%
UKIP - 22%
Lib Dems - 12%

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-30/ukip-surge-to-22-of-vote-in-latest-comres-poll/

Wikipedia has some kind of PV figures for 2009, but those were (unless I'm mistaken) projections for how the results would have panned out in a general election so we can't compare them.

But yeah, it'll be an interesting night.

Yeah, the PNV projects how the entire country would vote if there were locals everywhere, so you'd need to compare them to the 2009 total votes, which would give:

Con 31% (-13)
Lab 24% (+11)
UKIP 22% (+18)
LD 12% (-13)
Green 4% (n/c)
BNP 1% (-1)

If those figures bore out, the Right would be doing collectively much better than 2009!

Just for fun if we were to apply those vote changes to the projected 2009 national vote then we would get.
CON 22 (worst ever is 25% in 1995)
LAB 33
LIB 12
OTHERS 33!  UKIP maybe level with CON!

1993 when CON lost all but Bucks the national PV was.
CON 31
Lab 39
LIB 25
OTH 5
If those numbers are anywhere near right, I have a feeling CON could lose everything! I wonder whether UKIP might get largest party anywhere, Bucks or Staffs maybe?

Am I the only person that thinks that there is a large chance that election 2015 might be the British version of Canada 1993.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trouble they have in Staffs is that their organisation in Newcastle-under-Lyme has collapsed since 2009.

[DC Al Fine]

ComRes has conducted a poll....

Tories - 31%
Labour - 24%
UKIP - 22%
Lib Dems - 12%

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-30/ukip-surge-to-22-of-vote-in-latest-comres-poll/

Wikipedia has some kind of PV figures for 2009, but those were (unless I'm mistaken) projections for how the results would have panned out in a general election so we can't compare them.

But yeah, it'll be an interesting night.

Yeah, the PNV projects how the entire country would vote if there were locals everywhere, so you'd need to compare them to the 2009 total votes, which would give:

Con 31% (-13)
Lab 24% (+11)
UKIP 22% (+18)
LD 12% (-13)
Green 4% (n/c)
BNP 1% (-1)

If those figures bore out, the Right would be doing collectively much better than 2009!

Just for fun if we were to apply those vote changes to the projected 2009 national vote then we would get.
CON 22 (worst ever is 25% in 1995)
LAB 33
LIB 12
OTHERS 33!  UKIP maybe level with CON!

1993 when CON lost all but Bucks the national PV was.
CON 31
Lab 39
LIB 25
OTH 5
If those numbers are anywhere near right, I have a feeling CON could lose everything! I wonder whether UKIP might get largest party anywhere, Bucks or Staffs maybe?

Am I the only person that thinks that there is a large chance that election 2015 might be the British version of Canada 1993.

Possibly. All you need is for Cameron to run a godawful campaign and you'd get Canada 1993 all over again.

[Phony Moderate]

Party allegiance is much stronger here than it is in Canada though. In 2011 alone there were swings in excess of 30% or 40% in quite a few Quebec ridings from the Bloc to the NDP. Only in (maybe) a handful of by-elections have we seen swings in that range over here (post-war anyway).

[DC Al Fine]

Party allegiance is much stronger here than it is in Canada though. In 2011 alone there were swings in excess of 30% or 40% in quite a few Quebec ridings from the Bloc to the NDP. Only in (maybe) a handful of by-elections have we seen swings in that range over here (post-war anyway).

I suppose you are right. One other thing to consider is Quebec. In during the 1980's, Quebec was about 1/4-1/3 of the Tory coalition, and that was written off from day 1 in the 1993 campaign.

[You kip if you want to...]

Britain hasn't done a "sea change" election like Canada 93 since 1945.

If UKIP get 10% in 2015, they've done well. They'll sink back down in the 6-12 months before the election.

And couldn't we have said the same of Labour when these seats were last up in 2009?

[You kip if you want to...]

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It goes without saying that there'll be through the night coverage on Sky News and BBC News, but I doubt either will put on special programming during the night.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/01/nigel-farage-ukip-alex-wood-pot-plant_n_3191427.html?1367406909&utm_hp_ref=uk

If you didn't think he was a plant pot before...

[minionofmidas]

More predictions plz Al!

[minionofmidas]

Most people in Shropshire associate the Sandpits with things like the gruesome murder of Trevor Bradley - a man euphemistically described as an 'antiques dealer' - twenty years ago (even if his charred remains were actually found at the other end of the county. The manner of his death sparked (har, har) an excellent local joke, that I won't repeat), which isn't exactly fair, but is indicative.

I looked that up. Still don't get what 'antiques dealer' is a euphemism for, unless it's just someone buying and selling used furniture, lamps etc that aren't exactly what the term 'antiques dealer' implies?

But I noticed that... his killer was his brother-in-law (or one further removed, rather: one of the killer's sister is married to one of Bradley's brothers), is one of ten children - and he was born around 1952 - and Bradley is one of twentytwo - and he was only born in the late 1930s. The 20th century was a bit late to arrive in remote bits of Shropshire?

[MaxQue]

For numbers of kids: Not surprising in rural remove parts of countries.

For antique dealer: I understood as another type of dealer, or a shylock.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

]I looked that up. Still don't get what 'antiques dealer' is a euphemism for, unless it's just someone buying and selling used furniture, lamps etc that aren't exactly what the term 'antiques dealer' implies?

He was, allegedly, also one of those things that can be used to divide pieces of land and which aren't walls or hedges.

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Basically, yes. The size of the Bradley clan (one of them was on the Town Council - representing the Sandpits -for a while, hilariously enough) is a key part of the joke that I've not repeated here.

[minionofmidas]

]I looked that up. Still don't get what 'antiques dealer' is a euphemism for, unless it's just someone buying and selling used furniture, lamps etc that aren't exactly what the term 'antiques dealer' implies?

He was, allegedly, also one of those things that can be used to divide pieces of land and which aren't walls or hedges.

Yeah, that kinda goes with that profession. Not always, and not always knowingly, but, you know.

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pm me.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

]I looked that up. Still don't get what 'antiques dealer' is a euphemism for, unless it's just someone buying and selling used furniture, lamps etc that aren't exactly what the term 'antiques dealer' implies?

He was, allegedly, also one of those things that can be used to divide pieces of land and which aren't walls or hedges.

Yeah, that kinda goes with that profession. Not always, and not always knowingly, but, you know.

Now I'm even more confused...

Also Al, pm me.