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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2016: 269-269 Electoral College
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Indy Prez
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« on: March 02, 2013, 04:46:19 pm »

What do you see as being the most likely 269-269 tie in the next Presidential election, and between whom? And which party will be controlling Congress at that point?

Discuss with maps and party tickets.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2013, 05:02:38 pm »



This is pretty much the only plausible 269-269 map.  And it's sort of difficult to achieve.  Not sure how the GOP could win Iowa but not Ohio yet alone take Nevada barring some massive outreach to Hispanics.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2013, 05:44:32 pm »



This is pretty much the only plausible 269-269 map.  And it's sort of difficult to achieve.  Not sure how the GOP could win Iowa but not Ohio yet alone take Nevada barring some massive outreach to Hispanics.

If Clinton is the nominee and still has goodwill left in Arkansas, you could also flip AR, IA, and NV to the Dems on your map and OH to the GOP.  That would also be 269-269.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2013, 06:20:11 pm »

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True Federalist
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2013, 10:44:22 pm »

There is always the possibility that a tie would be impossible in 2016.  If Puerto Rico were admitted as a state, it would get 5 Representatives and 7 EV based on the 2010 Census if no other state were to lose Representatives as a result of Puerto Rico's admission.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2013, 11:40:17 pm »

There is always the possibility that a tie would be impossible in 2016.  If Puerto Rico were admitted as a state, it would get 5 Representatives and 7 EV based on the 2010 Census if no other state were to lose Representatives as a result of Puerto Rico's admission.

Could always have a third party candidate getting a few electoral votes.....or a Ron Paul supporting faithless elector turning a close election into a tie.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2013, 12:24:46 am »

There is always the possibility that a tie would be impossible in 2016.  If Puerto Rico were admitted as a state, it would get 5 Representatives and 7 EV based on the 2010 Census if no other state were to lose Representatives as a result of Puerto Rico's admission.

Could always have a third party candidate getting a few electoral votes.....or a Ron Paul supporting faithless elector turning a close election into a tie.


In which case, that third candidate would be among those Congress could choose for President.  However, with Puerto Rican admission a two candidate tie would be essentially impossible unless an elector refused to cast a vote.

Not that I think Puerto Rico would be a State by 2016. The earliest date I see Puerto Rico becoming a State is 4 July 2017. That would follow a 2014 referendum on a simple statehood or the current status and then a 2016 referendum to adopt a State constitution followed by the 115th Congress accepting said constitution and admitting Puerto Rico.
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Indy Prez
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« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2013, 07:34:44 pm »



This is pretty much the only plausible 269-269 map.  And it's sort of difficult to achieve.  Not sure how the GOP could win Iowa but not Ohio yet alone take Nevada barring some massive outreach to Hispanics.

What are the tickets though? Rubio-Thune and O'Malley-Warren?
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Indy Prez
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2013, 10:19:26 am »

Here's mine:



Christie-Walker > Warren-Kaine

Blue dogs in the house swing the election to Christie while a 50-50 split Senate pick Kaine to be Veep.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2013, 06:21:57 pm »


This is the right answer.

The next most plausible scenario, I think, involves any of a number of combinations in concert with the Republican's EV vote-rigging scheme going through in PA and/or MI, where it appears to still be an active possibility.
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Indy Prez
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2013, 06:08:52 am »


This is the right answer.

The next most plausible scenario, I think, involves any of a number of combinations in concert with the Republican's EV vote-rigging scheme going through in PA and/or MI, where it appears to still be an active possibility.

What ticket do you think would be required to turn off the Midwest as in this map?

I agree with you though, it is the most plausible.
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Vern
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2013, 12:01:01 pm »



Susana Martinez(R-NM)/Brian Sandoval(R-NV): 269 EV , 49.8% PV
Martin O'Mally(D-MD)/Brian Schweitzer(D-MT): 269 EV, 48.9% PV
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2013, 01:52:38 pm »


This is the right answer.

The next most plausible scenario, I think, involves any of a number of combinations in concert with the Republican's EV vote-rigging scheme going through in PA and/or MI, where it appears to still be an active possibility.

What ticket do you think would be required to turn off the Midwest as in this map?

I agree with you though, it is the most plausible.

I don't think the actual personalities at the top of the ticket actually matter that much anymore*, the nation has become too polarized.  I guess putting Scott Walker and not Susanna Martinez on the Republican ticket would help.

*Barring the selection of an obvious incompetent like Palin, that is.  Or perhaps the two super-popular heavyweights Christie and Clinton.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2013, 02:39:13 pm »
« Edited: March 06, 2013, 02:40:46 pm by Senator Snowstalker »



This is 269-269. Anyone care to put a story behind this one?
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auburntiger
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2013, 10:09:39 pm »
« Edited: March 06, 2013, 10:13:21 pm by auburntiger »



This is 269-269. Anyone care to put a story behind this one?

I'll go for it...

Both parties get together and decide they're going to work together for real this time. They plan from the very beginning to make it a 269-269 tie where there will be a Dem and a GOP working together in the White House. They decide the best way to do this without letting the American people know of their diabolical plan to confuse them is to draw states out of a hat and label them blue or red.

In order to make it not look like any sudden changes in the electorate, they produce the following nominees:

the nominees are Chris Christie (R-NJ) / Linda Lingle (R-HI), and Julian Castro (D-TX) / Mary Landreiu (D-LA).

Coincidentally,

1) The entire Mormon population from Idaho and Montana move to Nevada as the Hispanic population suddenly gets tired of Colorado and moves to Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
2) Indiana invades Illinois and annexes Cook County.
3) There's a mass producing of ballots in NYC that say Christie (D) and Castro (R)
4) Canada invades the United States (MI) and conquers Detroit.
5) A hurricane wipes out half the Democratic voters in VA, MD, DE, and NJ, and the rest of them flee to Georgia and NC.
6) Old white Retirees moving to MIssouri suddenly become a socially liberal bastion voting block and start voting solid Democrat
7) New England gets together and decides that they all hate the state of Maine

Plausible??
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Indy Prez
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2013, 05:27:45 am »

The closest state on each map?
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Indy Prez
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2013, 06:19:50 am »
« Edited: March 08, 2013, 12:29:16 pm by Indy Prez »

Clinton-Warner > Bush-Walker


Oklahoma sends it to the House which picks Hilldog for Prez; the Senate, Walker for VP.
And so Oboner austerity continues for another 4 years.
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