Election Night 2016 -- A Timeline

[JRP1994]

It's 12:20, and something interesting has occurred in the state of Virginia. With 100% of precincts reporting, Hillary Clinton is the apparent winner in the state. However, the vote count is as follows:

Hillary Clinton: 1,899,471 (50.06%)
Chris Christie:  1,894,432 (49.92%)

At this moment, we are coloring the state of Virginia LIGHT BLUE, to indicate that Mrs. Clinton is the apparent winner. Right now, assuming Mrs. Clinton has won Virginia, the best she can do, by our estimation, is reach 281 electoral votes (by winning Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa), as Mr. Christie is widely expected to carry Alaska. But if you subtract Virginia from that equation, she's at 268. If Mr. Christie is unable to reach 270 electoral votes without VA, and if the Christie campaign contests the state, we will move Virginia back into the "Tossup" category, as the result is close enough to trigger an automatic recount, and we may not know the results of that for many hours.

Here's the current electoral map. Clinton leads again at 260, Christie at 254.

[JRP1994]

At 12:39, we can project that the state of Nevada will be won by Hillary Clinton. It appears that the Christie/Rubio strategy of targeting western states has now failed twice - both New Mexico and Nevada are in the Democratic column, and Colorado is still far closer than they'd hoped.

Hillary Clinton is now at 266, Chris Christie at 254.

[NHI]

Come on Christie!

[jaichind]

Seems like the race is merely the 2012 race where Christi gains a 2% swing from Romneyu so that the national vote is about equal.  In which case he gets Florida and Ohio but just falls short in Virgina, Iowa and Colorado.

[JRP1994]

Except that Christie garners more support in the rust-belt, evidenced by the fact that Minnesota and Wisconsin took an abnormally long time to call, and that Iowa is still outstanding.

[JRP1994]

At 12:57, we can project a major surprise: Chris Christie is the projected winner in the state of Iowa. Both campaigns fervently contested the state, and despite Iowa's slight but persistent Democratic lean, Mr. Christie was able to out-organize Mrs. Clinton in the state, and it appears that Iowa will go to the Republicans tonight.

Here's the electoral map: Christie is at 260, Mrs. Clinton at 266.

[JRP1994]

It's 1:00am, and the polls have just closed in the state of Alaska. No surprise, we can project the state for Chris Christie tonight, netting him an additional 3 electoral votes.

The electoral count is now Christie: 263, Clinton: 266

[Blackacre]

Go Clinton!

[Maxwell]

And... Colorado is a tie

[Enderman]

I think that Maxwell is trying to relieve the anticipation for a few days....but do update

[JRP1994]

At 1:19am, we have a major projection to make: Hillary Clinton has won the state of Colorado, and with Colorado, she has won the Presidency. Mrs. Clinton has won CO by a 51-48 margin, and with the Rocky Mountain State's 9 electoral votes, she is now at 275, while Mr. Christie is at 263.

No word from the Christie campaign yet as to whether they intend to contest the state of Virginia. Here is the electoral map at this moment:

[Blackacre]

And there goes Ohio's winning streak. who won the PV?

[JRP1994]

Popular vote will be announced once the results in Virginia are either conceded, or a recount is called for.

Re: Ohio. It has a PVI of about R+1, meaning that in a tied election, Ohio would go Republican. This election is as close to tied as can be,

[Blackacre]

Popular vote will be announced once the results in Virginia are either conceded, or a recount is called for.

Re: Ohio. It has a PVI of about R+1, meaning that in a tied election, Ohio would go Republican. This election is as close to tied as can be,

I know, I'm just saying that OH had the longest winning streak of any state in the union, and then it lost it (unless Christie wins VA)

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Popular vote will be announced once the results in Virginia are either conceded, or a recount is called for.

Re: Ohio. It has a PVI of about R+1, meaning that in a tied election, Ohio would go Republican. This election is as close to tied as can be,

I know, I'm just saying that OH had the longest winning streak of any state in the union, and then it lost it (unless Christie wins VA)

That means Nevada is now the "Official Presidential Bellwether State".

[Plankton5165]

Popular vote will be announced once the results in Virginia are either conceded, or a recount is called for.

Re: Ohio. It has a PVI of about R+1, meaning that in a tied election, Ohio would go Republican. This election is as close to tied as can be,

Well now it's been 3 1/2 years. The real election day is now 3 days away!

Clinton has a much better chance of losing the state of Nevada than losing the state of New Hampshire. She will not win all of Maine either.

Current list of bellwether states:

• Ohio (1964-)
• Nevada (1980-)
• Florida (1996-)
• Colorado (2000-)
• Virginia (2000-)
• Iowa (2004-)
• New Mexico (2004-)

I didn't include the Kerry states in 2004, as that would be too much in the list. All 19 of them were won by Barack Obama in both elections (2008-).