If the vote is close enough, some identifiable minority will be the difference. Suppose that Florida had 2000 more gay (or Jewish or Asian) voters in 2000. If the difference is really small one could conceivably ask about the votes of stamp collectors or golfers.
Margins were close enough that Hispanics made the difference in Indiana and North Carolina in 2008.
Romney won the white vote in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, California, Illinois, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and tied in New York. All of those are Obama states and without minorities, he would have had 444 electoral votes! Without New York too. So yes more democratic Hispanic vote and increased turnout Black vote definitely cost Romney the election.
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