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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  swing states and hispanics
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Question: Which state was where the hispanic vote played a very prominent role in the final 2012 election outcome
#1
Colorado
 
#2
Florida
 
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Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: swing states and hispanics  (Read 1361 times)
jman123
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« on: March 01, 2013, 07:20:34 pm »

If you think hispanics played a role in other states please mention it and we can discuss it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2013, 02:03:03 am »

If the vote is close enough, some identifiable minority will be the difference. Suppose that Florida had 2000 more gay (or Jewish or Asian)  voters in 2000. If the difference is really small one could conceivably ask about the votes of stamp collectors or golfers.

Margins were close enough that Hispanics made the difference in Indiana and North Carolina in 2008.
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DS0816
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2013, 01:26:31 pm »

I answered Colorado.

In 2008, the state was a Democratic pickup and President Obama won women with 56 percent of the vote while nabbing 49 percent of men. (John McCain received 41 percent of women in 2008, and he garnered 50 percent of men.)

In 2012, there was no gender gap as Obama carried Colo. with 51 percent of women and men. The female support decline, but he won over men.

I have to think he would not have won over men, as well as women, had it not been for Hispanics. (And they were a substantial increase in 2012 Colorado.)
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2013, 04:18:20 pm »
« Edited: March 25, 2013, 04:22:49 pm by Rockefeller »

The margins in Florida is 2012 are so small that the Hispanic vote effectively delivered the state for Obama. 

I would guess that White voters in Colorado are considerably more Democratic than Florida Whites in 2012, no?

Yep, I just checked.  Colorado Whites were 44% Obama compared to 37% of Florida Whites.

Also, the presence of Black voters in FL (13 percent of the electorate compared to only 3 percent in CO) probably had a substantial impact on the statewide results and counterbalanced White voters more Republican voting habits in FL. 
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2013, 07:48:57 am »

Both, although probably more so Colorado sincs there are fewer Cuban-Americans, making the Latino vote there less Republican than in Florida.  It probably played a major role in Nevada and New Mexico as well.  New Mexico is normally a swing state but wasn't very close in 2012 because of the large Latino population.  Nevada probably had more of a role, since the Latino support for Obama seemed to more than offset Romney's strength with Mormons, which also make up a large population in NV. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2013, 09:19:12 pm »

If the vote is close enough, some identifiable minority will be the difference. Suppose that Florida had 2000 more gay (or Jewish or Asian)  voters in 2000. If the difference is really small one could conceivably ask about the votes of stamp collectors or golfers.

Margins were close enough that Hispanics made the difference in Indiana and North Carolina in 2008.

Romney won the white vote in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, California, Illinois, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and tied in New York. All of those are Obama states and without minorities, he would have had 444 electoral votes! Without New York too. So yes more democratic Hispanic vote and increased turnout Black vote definitely cost Romney the election.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2013, 09:38:06 pm »

I voted Florida because it has a higher percentage of Hispanics and was closer, but yeah like everyone has said Hispanics made the difference for the entire election, let alone the swing states. Getting to Bush '04 levels would push Romney up to 240 EV's, flipping Florida and actually New Mexico. Just a 2% overall swing from there gives him Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania, which gives him over 50% and the electoral vote. And the Hispanic vote will continue to grow substantially, and will obviously have a much bigger effect than it does now.
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