Italy 2013 official results thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think the likeliest option here is that without Grillo's blessing some M5S Senators back a leftist coalition anyway and, Bersani manages to form some kind of monster with Monti and a minority of M5S Senators which lasts until 2014-16 and then collapses. Which would then usher in another, final Berlusconi term.

In 2016? When Berlusconi is 79?

It wouldn't surprise me. I personally think he will lead PdL until he is too sick or dies.

Indeed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, with more votes coming in Maroni's lead is now slightly below 5 points. Zingaretti and Frattura still cruising (the latter even more so, interestingly). Slight consolation...

[Franknburger]

Camera votes from Finland are hilarious:

MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE       232   27,39   
PARTITO DEMOCRATICO      228   26,91   
CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA      158   18,65   
SINISTRA ECOLOGIA LIBERTA'   77   9,09   
RIVOLUZIONE CIVILE      59   6,96   
IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTA'   51   6,02   

What's that "Partito Comunista" which seems to be interestingly high in European countries like Finland and Sweden? In votes from senate Berlusconi is behind Rivoluzione Civile

Grillo is also in front in Denmark and the Czech Republic (in Denmark Berlusconi barely beat SEL). This is a bit like "spot the Italian students abroad".

In Germany, OTOH, bankers and pizzeria owners almost tie, crowding out the students:

CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA            35.328                28,01
PARTITO DEMOCRATICO             33.292                26,40
IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTA'         30.816                24,43
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE                13.928                11,04
RIVOLUZIONE CIVILE                   5.066                  4,01
SINISTRA ECOLOGIA LIBERTA'      3.102                  2,45
ASS. ITALIANI ALL'ESTERO           2.337                  1,85
PARTITO COMUNISTA                   1.335                  1,05
FERMARE IL DECLINO                     902                   0,71

I really liked the CV of the PD candidate - did she make it?  

On a side note, since we haven't talked football for a while :

Barca just lost to Real 1:3 (2 Ronaldo goals).

[Keystone Phil]

That Football talk is in the Off Topic thread since it isn't related at all to this election.

[Franknburger]

That Football talk is in the Off Topic thread since it isn't related at all to this election.

Thanks for reminding me

[SPQR]

Bersani will declare that this is a short-term government;the president of the Camera will be a M5S member,whereas they will not oppose any decent nominee for the President of the Republic.
The main laws will be those against corruption at all levels,and some other ethics-based laws on which PD and M5S agree. If they say no,they'll lose any credibility.

If the financial markets don't collapse,PD will be able to survive until October without having to  introduce new taxes,and thus will not take any fire from PdL(which will become even more populist in these months,since it will not have to take part in any legislative activity).

One of the main reforms will be the electoral reform,which will be done with M5S and Monti.
Then,in the fall,new elections,with Renzi as the candidate and the whole of the old guard gone. Electoral campaign based on publicizing in a better way (the "Renzi way",more media-friendly) proposals such as lowering taxes on firms.


This is what I think and hope will happen in the next few months.

[Andrea]

Ambrosoli actually did well in cities. He carried Milan, Monza, Cremona, Lecco, Lodi, Bergamo, Brescia, even Sondrio, basically a tie in Como. He was behind just in Varese.
But the "province" was dominated by Maroni.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I thought I saw that Bersani was going to make an M5S member the Camera President. Then I tried to convince myself that I was misreading. I know you all will say "BETTER A GRILLO CLOWN THAN A PDL ONE!!!" but there has to be a sense of embarrassment that this is "necessary."

[Franknburger]

Bersani will declare that this is a short-term government;the president of the Camera will be a M5S member,whereas they will not oppose any decent nominee for the President of the Republic.
The main laws will be those against corruption at all levels,and some other ethics-based laws on which PD and M5S agree. If they say no,they'll lose any credibility.

If the financial markets don't collapse,PD will be able to survive until October without having to  introduce new taxes,and thus will not take any fire from PdL(which will become even more populist in these months,since it will not have to take part in any legislative activity).

One of the main reforms will be the electoral reform,which will be done with M5S and Monti.
Then,in the fall,new elections,with Renzi as the candidate and the whole of the old guard gone. Electoral campaign based on publicizing in a better way (the "Renzi way",more media-friendly) proposals such as lowering taxes on firms.


This is what I think and hope will happen in the next few months.

This sounds like a reasonable and feasible strategy to get out of the deadlock.

Unfortunately, however, there have been reports today that the "Troika", on their current regular monitoring mission to Greece, have found little progress and much "business as usual". My guess is that this will first of all mean there is now going to be hard action on Greece, probably even postponing or cancelling the next payment, in order to send a signal to markets and Italy alike.
However, Italy will most likely not remain untouched.

Germany will switch into "election mode" by mid-/ late June, and the Euro-sceptics here are primarily found within Merkel's base, not so much among the red-green voters. This means substantial pressure on Italy to come up with some kind of reform (stricter anti-corruption legislation is anything but a bad idea here) until June. Afterwards, you will be pretty much left on your own to convince financial markets, with not much help to be expected from Germany and the European Central Bank, respectively.

Probably, its also a good idea to hold the next elections already in September, when world attention is focusing on the German election. This would give Italy a little more time to sort out the way ahead, while Germany (and Austria) are doing the same.

[Kitteh]

Have Bersani/PD said anything about electoral reform, specifically getting rid of the idiotic bonus thing?

[SPQR]

Bersani will declare that this is a short-term government;the president of the Camera will be a M5S member,whereas they will not oppose any decent nominee for the President of the Republic.
The main laws will be those against corruption at all levels,and some other ethics-based laws on which PD and M5S agree. If they say no,they'll lose any credibility.

If the financial markets don't collapse,PD will be able to survive until October without having to  introduce new taxes,and thus will not take any fire from PdL(which will become even more populist in these months,since it will not have to take part in any legislative activity).

One of the main reforms will be the electoral reform,which will be done with M5S and Monti.
Then,in the fall,new elections,with Renzi as the candidate and the whole of the old guard gone. Electoral campaign based on publicizing in a better way (the "Renzi way",more media-friendly) proposals such as lowering taxes on firms.


This is what I think and hope will happen in the next few months.

This sounds like a reasonable and feasible strategy to get out of the deadlock.

Unfortunately, however, there have been reports today that the "Troika", on their current regular monitoring mission to Greece, have found little progress and much "business as usual". My guess is that this will first of all mean there is now going to be hard action on Greece, probably even postponing or cancelling the next payment, in order to send a signal to markets and Italy alike.
However, Italy will most likely not remain untouched.

Germany will switch into "election mode" by mid-/ late June, and the Euro-sceptics here are primarily found within Merkel's base, not so much among the red-green voters. This means substantial pressure on Italy to come up with some kind of reform (stricter anti-corruption legislation is anything but a bad idea here) until June. Afterwards, you will be pretty much left on your own to convince financial markets, with not much help to be expected from Germany and the European Central Bank, respectively.

Probably, its also a good idea to hold the next elections already in September, when world attention is focusing on the German election. This would give Italy a little more time to sort out the way ahead, while Germany (and Austria) are doing the same.

Yes,elections in Germany might hold a crucial role in the scenario I described.
What I hope is that declaring from the beginning that this is a short-term government,with the only aim to introduce laws on corruption and such,and to make no changes on reforms such as the one on pensions,will calm down financial markets.
A worsening of the situation in Greece and/or idiotic statements from German CDU politicians might well screw PD.
Yesterday and today they obviously lost their head...like any honest italian,tbf.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

That Football talk is in the Off Topic thread since it isn't related at all to this election.

Would you have considered in On Topic if it had been about Italian football?

[Keystone Phil]

That Football talk is in the Off Topic thread since it isn't related at all to this election.

Would you have considered in On Topic if it had been about Italian football?

...we discussed the (small) impact the Italian game had here. Of course, people threw a fit but those are the same people that shouted at some of us for suggesting a Silvio surge so...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Grillo seemed somewhat more conciliatory than usual, and he didn't rule out propping up Bersani's proposals on a case-by-case basis. He also mentioned Dario Fo' as a potential candidate for President.

In other news, spread bounced from 287 to 345 today...
 

Bersani will declare that this is a short-term government;the president of the Camera will be a M5S member,whereas they will not oppose any decent nominee for the President of the Republic.
The main laws will be those against corruption at all levels,and some other ethics-based laws on which PD and M5S agree. If they say no,they'll lose any credibility.

If the financial markets don't collapse,PD will be able to survive until October without having to  introduce new taxes,and thus will not take any fire from PdL(which will become even more populist in these months,since it will not have to take part in any legislative activity).

One of the main reforms will be the electoral reform,which will be done with M5S and Monti.
Then,in the fall,new elections,with Renzi as the candidate and the whole of the old guard gone. Electoral campaign based on publicizing in a better way (the "Renzi way",more media-friendly) proposals such as lowering taxes on firms.


This is what I think and hope will happen in the next few months.

I really hope you're right, but this definitely seems too good to be true.

[Franknburger]

What I hope is that declaring from the beginning that this is a short-term government,with the only aim to introduce laws on corruption and such,and to make no changes on reforms such as the one on pensions,will calm down financial markets.
A worsening of the situation in Greece and/or idiotic statements from German CDU politicians might well screw PD.
Yesterday and today they obviously lost their head...like any honest italian,tbf.

The first thing you need to do is changing the narrative from "Italy goes chaos" (.."as they always do") to "Italy wants fundamental reform". My take is that Bersani is just trying to do this (props to him). Now we will see whether Grillo (who should have a feeling for building narratives) can act responsibly and joins in.

As concerns the sometimes not so helpful comments of my fellow countrymen, its especially the CSU to watch out for, as they are facing the eurosceptic "Freie Wähler" in the Bavarian state election upcoming this September.

[Franknburger]

Btw: The Italian-German political dependency is reciprocal. Trittin, the leader of the German Greens, has over the last years been the most vociferous advocate of strong German engagement in the Eurozone and German solidarity with struggling EU partners. FDP leader Rösler, OTOH, has for some time tried to reposition his party among the Euro-sceptics (trying to find a replacement for the 'tax reduction' argument that had carried the FDP to historically unprecedented vote shares before they miserably failed to deliver), until the party's 'grey eminencies' (Genscher etc.) told him to shut down.

As such, Italy's political development over the coming months will also have a significant influence on the outcome of the German election.

[ERvND]

Maybe it's already been discussed - it's a long tread - but why have the opinion polls been so bad (again)? The last polls, including the illegal "horse polls", predicted IBC winning by ca. 5%. Exit polls predicted the same. After all, they end up with a 0.3% lead.

What's going on here?

[You kip if you want to...]

Maybe it's already been discussed - it's a long tread - but why have the opinion polls been so bad (again)? The last polls, including the illegal "horse polls", predicted IBC winning by ca. 5%. Exit polls predicted the same. After all, they end up with a 0.3% lead.

What's going on here?

A combination of a shy Silvio effect and 5-starers being too young/too unengaged to care for responding to pollsters.

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe it's already been discussed - it's a long tread - but why have the opinion polls been so bad (again)? The last polls, including the illegal "horse polls", predicted IBC winning by ca. 5%. Exit polls predicted the same. After all, they end up with a 0.3% lead.

What's going on here?

Shy Silvo Effect

Most of his critics will be shouting about a comfortable win, "Silvio is totally finished. No doubt about it," etc. next time around, too. Some people never learn their lesson.

[Franknburger]

Maybe it's already been discussed - it's a long tread - but why have the opinion polls been so bad (again)? The last polls, including the illegal "horse polls", predicted IBC winning by ca. 5%. Exit polls predicted the same. After all, they end up with a 0.3% lead.

What's going on here?

A combination of a shy Silvio effect and 5-starers being too young/too unengaged to care for responding to pollsters.

Actually, Silvio was polled just right (29.4 poll average vs. 29.1 actual). Pollsters overestimated Bersani and Monti (plus a few smaller parties), and vastly underestimated Grillo.

I am quite sure that one factor is cell-only voters. i.e. the urban youth, which seems to have gone massively for Grillo. Females may be another group - especially the classical late-deciding low-info supermarket cashier / nurse / waitress type, who may in the past have supported Berlusconi but probably this time as well swung to Grillo (still waiting to see any demographic analysis).
Still, Italian pollsters may probably also need to review their sampling approach and add some more depth to their interviews which - judged by what has been published - focus mostly on horse-race top numbers but care little for underlying electoral moods and trends.

[Hash]

Yeah, Berlusconi did NOT overperform compared to the last polls/exit polls. Grillo did.

[jaichind]

We're talking about a new Parliament with M5S as a major player. Do people really expect whatever government that emerges to last more than a year?

Fun fact: Bersani, Berlusconi, and Monti's best provinces are all adjacent: Bolzano, Sondrio, and Trento, respectively.

Another fun fact: this is the first election Silvio has lost as the challenger.

Not sure that is true.  In 1996 Silvio was the challenger as well.  He was in power as a result of 1994 elections but was out in late 1994 when Northern League broke with Silvio, so when Silvio Froza Italy ran in 1996 they were the challenger.  I rememeber this well because I was in Italy for vacation that winter during one of my college winer breaks.

[jaichind]

Have Bersani/PD said anything about electoral reform, specifically getting rid of the idiotic bonus thing?

Not sure that is the solution.  Because if bonus is idiotic, then that should apply to both the Senate and the Chamber.  And without the 54% bonus logic in place for the Chamber then these election results will still throw up a hung Chamber with no chance of majority.  The problem here is not any issue with bonus but almost 55% of the electorate voted against (stupidly in my view) the current austarity policies.  This is one of the many cases where the people voted wrong but there you have it.

[RogueBeaver]

If you ditched the bonus Bersani would have less than 150 Camera seats, judging by the other parties' standings. So I definitely favour keeping it.

[Keystone Phil]

I believe Silvio's average was around 27-28%. Not much of a difference but it isn't this 29.4% that keeps being spouted (probably trying to create a silly narrative that he under performed).

Whatever the case - Silvio over performing or the center-left being itself - the polls continue to get it wrong.

We're talking about a new Parliament with M5S as a major player. Do people really expect whatever government that emerges to last more than a year?

Fun fact: Bersani, Berlusconi, and Monti's best provinces are all adjacent: Bolzano, Sondrio, and Trento, respectively.

Another fun fact: this is the first election Silvio has lost as the challenger.

Not sure that is true.  In 1996 Silvio was the challenger as well.  He was in power as a result of 1994 elections but was out in late 1994 when Northern League broke with Silvio, so when Silvio Froza Italy ran in 1996 they were the challenger.  I rememeber this well because I was in Italy for vacation that winter during one of my college winer breaks.

Ah, yes, that's right. I keep forgetting he had to resign in 1994.