The electoral map in 10 years

[Devils30]

I think after the GOP has a couple more presidential flops they'll begin to recover and the midwest is the first place they can look to (MI, WI, MN, IA, PA). As for the next decade, most likely things change little in PA, OH and the rest of the rust belt but VA becomes a lean D state and dems make Arizona close, while maintaining CO, NV. Dems also begin  to contest Georgia but it still leans R and NC becomes a pure tossup.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think little will change in the  next 10 years, apart from VA and CO consolidating their Democratic lean, FL and NC moving into pure tossup category, Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania further eroding and reaching worrisome levels, and Arizona returning to 1990s levels of PVI.

The big changes will start happening after 2020, possibly 2030, IMO.

[Blackacre]

in that map, FL being a tossup would be terrifying for the GOP, because they literally couldn't reach 270 without Florida if NC and AZ go tossup.

[Obamanation]

in that map, FL being a tossup would be terrifying for the GOP, because they literally couldn't reach 270 without Florida if NC and AZ go tossup.

The GOP already can't reach 270.

[bballrox4717]

Totally agree that map is a Republican's worst fears. I also think it's quite likely to happen if the Dems run good candidates in the 2020's and not baseless stiff's like Gore and Kerry.

This is their goal map. Keep Florida as a bellwether state, hold onto to NC and AZ as they begin to drift while consolidating gains in the midwest.  

[Devils30]

PA: Not sure the GOP has much to be optimistic about even in the short term here. Yeah, it trended slightly R this time but Romney also made that last ditch surge after Obama led the entire time. Obama did terrible in Western PA and still won by over 5 even without doing well in parts of metro Philly (Bucks, Chester, Berks pretty much a tie). Hillary at the top of the ticket likely would make PA lean D by a larger margin. Plus the areas of PA that are growing are not where the GOP is surging.

GA: Don't discount the chances a Dem by 2020 could have here. Counties like Gwinnett are 43% white, yet Romney won by 9. Simply put, the GOP is on borrowed time in places like that in metro Atl and theyve pretty much maxed out the white vote in rural areas.

VA: I think Dems can get to high 60s in Fairfax, mid 60s in Prince William, high 50s in Loudoun if trends continue.

[Adam Griffin]

The Great Yankee Migration continues down the eastern seaboard, turning Virginia into a reliable Democratic bastion, North Carolina into a lean-Democratic state and Georgia & Florida into pure toss-ups.

Arizona and Montana continue to cling to their natural Republican roots, while Colorado becomes a fairly reliable Democratic-leaning state. Texas is slowly becoming more competitive, but will have to wait until 2024 or 2028 to really be a contender.

Iowa trends Republican, becoming a toss-up, while Minnesota edges closer to being competitive for Republicans. Ohio becomes more naturally Democratic, breaking from its traditional roots.

D 312
R 175
T 51

[Indy Texas]

I can see Pennsylvania becoming a milder version of Missouri. That is, a state that grows more conservative and more Republican as its cities continue their precipitous decline and Democratic votes disappear as a result.

It's strange to think that 50 years ago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were all among the top-flight American cities. Today they're shells of their former selves, and Missouri is left with rural Southern conservatives in one part of the state and rural Midwestern conservatives in the other. Pennsylvania could wind up looking like West Virginia but with more people and professional sports teams.

[traininthedistance]

I can see Pennsylvania becoming a milder version of Missouri. That is, a state that grows more conservative and more Republican as its cities continue their precipitous decline and Democratic votes disappear as a result.

It's strange to think that 50 years ago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were all among the top-flight American cities. Today they're shells of their former selves, and Missouri is left with rural Southern conservatives in one part of the state and rural Midwestern conservatives in the other. Pennsylvania could wind up looking like West Virginia but with more people and professional sports teams.

Philly is still a top-flight American city.  It had been declining for a long time, but a) it stated from a much higher place than StL, KC, or PGH; and b) the decline has (arguably at least) stopped.  Philly gained population in the 2010 census (first time since... 1950?) and surprised just about every observer by remaining ahead of Phoenix for the #5 population spot (#6 metro area). 

To be fair, it's not growing as fast as the sunbelt towns, so you could argue it's still in softer, relative decline.  But I think it still has a pretty secure hold within the top dozen or so metropolises for another 50 years at least.

[opebo]

My main points being New Hampshire and Arizona there.

[LastVoter]

My main points being New Hampshire and Arizona there.

no love for Jawjuh?

[old timey villain]

As I've said before, there's really no way to predict the politics of the future. Suppose somebody asked this question in 1983. Would anybody have predicted the strong Democratic shift in states like New Jersey, Vermont, California, Connecticut, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire? If someone had claimed that in the 1992 election, the Democratic nominee would win all of these states I think they would have been laughed out of the room. If somebody in the 1950s claimed that the 1964 Republican nominee would sweep the deep south, despite losing in a landslide nationwide, they'd probably be institutionalized.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Depends on what the GOP decides to do after they get clobbered next year in the midterms. 

[mattyman]

I'll wait and see what Republican party emerges post in-fighting, Republicans are toast electorally if the neo con establishment continue their control. I suspect (hope) the more socially tolerant party emerges going back to more libertarian-ish philosophy. If the youth are anything to go by, the neo-cons days are numbered.

[NHI]

I'll wait and see what Republican party emerges post in-fighting, Republicans are toast electorally if the neo con establishment continue their control. I suspect (hope) the more socially tolerant party emerges going back to more libertarian-ish philosophy. If the youth are anything to go by, the neo-cons days are numbered.

Amen.

[Person Man]

Neoconservatives aren't too off-putting and some make good points. Christian fundamentalists that talk about rape and the world being only 5800 years old are.

[pbrower2a]

Neoconservatives aren't too off-putting and some make good points. Christian fundamentalists that talk about rape and the world being only 5800 years old are.

"In the beginning God created Heaven and Earth, Gen. 1, v. 1. Which beginning of time, according to our Chronologie, fell upon the entrance of the night preceding the twenty third day of Octob[er] in the year of the Julian [Period] 710. The year before Christ 4004. The Julian Period 710" -- Bishop James Ussher

6008 years, four months, and fourteen days, if I calculate 'correctly'. Hubble's Constant is more convincing; that gives about 13 billion years to suggest a point at which anything older is 'outside' our Universe.   

Neoconservatives at their political start were reformers. Then they deteriorated morally, and so did their politics.

[opebo]

My main points being New Hampshire and Arizona there.

no love for Jawjuh?

I wish, just doubt it'll be liberated in just ten years.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm going to go a bit out on a limb here.  Gay marriage and immigration should be settled as major issues within a decade from now, so I am expecting a more libertarian GOP and less emphasis on social issues.  By 2024, elections should be more about the federal budget and debt than anything else.  This would allow a Republican advance in upscale suburbs and a Democratic advance in the South and with farmers:

[BaldEagle1991]

I'm going to go a bit out on a limb here.  Gay marriage and immigration should be settled as major issues within a decade from now, so I am expecting a more libertarian GOP and less emphasis on social issues.  By 2024, elections should be more about the federal budget and debt than anything else.  This would allow a Republican advance in upscale suburbs and a Democratic advance in the South and with farmers:

If Georgia is gray, so should Florida!

[Skill and Chance]

I'm going to go a bit out on a limb here.  Gay marriage and immigration should be settled as major issues within a decade from now, so I am expecting a more libertarian GOP and less emphasis on social issues.  By 2024, elections should be more about the federal budget and debt than anything else.  This would allow a Republican advance in upscale suburbs and a Democratic advance in the South and with farmers:

If Georgia is gray, so should Florida!

With a more libertarian GOP that has probably put Christie in the White House for at least a term, I would expect Florida to drift back right.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I doubt a more "libertarian" GOP would move Florida right; if anything, it would be the reverse.

[Person Man]

and what are the chances of a Libertarian GOP being successful? Maybe it could but the big issue would be what would happen to the current base of Evangelicals?

If the strategy is successful, they will be able to rebuild and grow the Bush coalition by doing better in the west and Great Lakes and if they are unsuccessful, they will be in an even weaker condition.

Maybe reset it the bases to where they were in the 90s but with demographic change?

But I am expecting that the current establishment will win out.

[DS0816]

I'm among those who consider 2008 a realigning presidential election favoring the Democrats.

The Blue Firewall remains with the Democrats.

Iowa has a Democratic tilt. And Republicans have a demographic tide against them that is turning blue longrunning bellwether New Mexico. Nevada votes just like N.M. (They've only disagreed in one presidential election: 2000, the year of a split outcome in popular vote vs. electoral vote.) Barack Obama carried Nev. by stronger statewide margins vs. his national margins in both elections, creating a Democratic tilt. (He's the first more-than-one-term Democrat to do that since Franklin Roosevelt.)

Right there, with the 2010s map, that totals 263 electoral votes.

Florida and Ohio are constantly the leading bellwether states which end up carrying for the winner. Virginia and Colorado are the newest bellwethers. North Carolina is trending competitive (spread in statewide margin vs. national margin). Those are 84 electoral votes.

Georgia and Arizona, both having delivered the female vote to President Obama (with Ga., true in 2008 but exit polls didn't include Ga. in 2012; applicable to Ariz. in 2012), and the trendlines show these two states are loosening up their Team Red grip. They add up to 27 electoral votes.

Texas, the No. 2 state, has a Strong GOP hold where it's been nearly 20 points redder than how the nation votes. (Polar opposite of the No. 1 most-populous state of California.) It's a question as to whether demographic changes move Texas more rapidly over the next ten years. Right now, a Democrat would have to nab about 57 or 58 percent of the national vote to pull in Texas. If demographics changes loosen up the red -- and Democrats move Dallas County (Dallas) and especially Harris County (Houston) deeply blue -- then they can compete in the state more effectively. Tarrant County (Fort Worth) is key to statewide victories in Texas.

Montana should be on the Democrats' itinerary. That state isn't voting for the Democratic presidential candidates in part because the state isn't getting courted. Obama won the female vote from the Big Sky State in 2008. Democratic hold for governor, with 2012, when the Republicans were supposedly assured the pickup. They failed to unseat Jon Tester. 2008 was winnable for Obama. His campaign should've been more aggressive.

Indiana, which some thought was a fluke in 2008, is still winnable for the Democrats. The problem is in giving up on the state when they had the counterflips in 2012: President went from D to R; Senate went from R to D.

North Dakota and South Dakota have not been taken seriously by the Ds. The raw-vote margins in both, in presidential years won by the Ds, are not so dramatically R that they're unwinnable in D-winning presidential cycles.

The absolutely safe states -- and I number them at ten -- for Republicans are: Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina (which have voted the same in the last 100 years' worth of elections except the last having voted differently in 1960 and 1968; the first two have disagreed only once since they first voted in 1820); Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming; Kansas, Nebraska (statewide and #03), and Oklahoma in the plains and, to the west, Alaska. Now with a partisan advantage for the Republicans are the Bill Clinton-carried Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia. So, that brings it up to 15 states for the GOP. Missouri, a former bellwether which has voted the same as that cluster in every election since 1972, is tilting decisively, but not as dramatically, red. This brings it up to 16 states. They are worth 106 electoral votes.

[publicunofficial]

The absolutely safe states -- and I number them at ten -- for Republicans are: Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina (which have voted the same in the last 100 years' worth of elections except the last having voted differently in 1960 and 1968; the first two have disagreed only once since they first voted in 1820); Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming; Kansas, Nebraska (statewide and #03), and Oklahoma in the plains and, to the west, Alaska. Now with a partisan advantage for the Republicans are the Bill Clinton-carried Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia. So, that brings it up to 15 states for the GOP. Missouri, a former bellwether which has voted the same as that cluster in every election since 1972, is tilting decisively, but not as dramatically, red. This brings it up to 16 states. They are worth 106 electoral votes.

I would think that if the Dems can take Montana and the Dakotas, then Alaska shouldn't be completely out of reach. Like Montana, it's a very independent state that votes largely based on energy issues.