What if 9/11 happened on September 2004?

[Siloch]

Do you think Bush would have won or Kerry?

[Enderman]

I would guess if Bush did exactly what he did IRL, it would be a huge landslide...like this:

Bush
Kerry


or this:

Bush
Kerry


Yes, Bush's approval ratings were slumping and would have kept slumping pre-9/11. I think he would go down to the 50's or 40's. His second term would definitely be crazy, with his approval ratings going to the 40's and 30's, then back up to the 70's and 80's life as a Presidential pollster would be very confusing. But I think it would be a landslide...maybe, maybe not. But I do know his approval ratings were in the 80's and 90's during 9/11, then slowed down, with the Iraq war and Saddam to slow down the degradation of his poll numbers.

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

I think it creates a huge "rally around the flag" moment two months before the election, making it pretty much impossible for Kerry to win. Bush wins 40 states, at least.

[Lumine]

I agree, Kerry would lose by a landslide in this scenario. The problem is that without 9/11 in 2001 the Bush Administration becomes a wild card, with equal potential to have a successful first term or a domestic disaster (and what would have happened with Iraq, Iran or Afghanistan is hard to figure). Kerry might even lose the primaries and you would see someone like Dean or Edwards fighting Bush in a battle over domestic policies instead of a referendum on the Iraq War. If so, Bush still wins, but things would be a lot different.

[Siloch]

I would guess if Bush did exactly what he did IRL, it would be a huge landslide...like this:

Bush
Kerry

Wouldn't Bush win New Jersey in a landslide like that, Kerry only got 52 percent in 2004.

[Blackacre]

during the election, there would have been plenty of room for the Dems to go Benghazi on this

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bush landslide.

during the election, there would have been plenty of room for the Dems to go Benghazi on this

Except Democrats don't do such things.

[bballrox4717]

[Obamanation]

during the election, there would have been plenty of room for the Dems to go Benghazi on this

LOL

The national Dems?!

....


hahahahahahahahaha

[Paul Kemp]

Would Kerry even be the nominee? I think without 9/11 there would be a stronger chance that Gore runs again.

There are so many question marks in such a scenario that I wouldn't even know where to begin.

No matter what, Bush probably wins though.

[morgieb]

Bush wins in a rout.

[Mr. Morden]

The more interesting scenario is 9/11 happening in September 1998, right after the Starr Report is released, and during the showdown with Iraq over UN weapons inspectors that ultimately led to Operation Desert Fox.

[Enderman]

The more interesting scenario is 9/11 happening in September 1998, right after the Starr Report is released, and during the showdown with Iraq over UN weapons inspectors that ultimately led to Operation Desert Fox.

Man that would be insane! 0.0

[Cryptic]

Bush wins in a landslide, but I'm not so sure Kerry would be the Democratic nominee.  It's difficult to imagine what the 2004 election season would be like in this timeline, because so much of it in real life was defined by 9/11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. But regardless of the changes, Bush landslide, probably on the scale of a Reagan win. 

[Blackacre]

during the election, there would have been plenty of room for the Dems to go Benghazi on this

LOL

The national Dems?!

....


hahahahahahahahaha

yeah, true. We didn't lean to get mean until 2012.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

It'd be ironic that a pretty clear indictment of the administration's security policies would be the administration's greatest strength.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It'd be ironic that a pretty clear indictment of the administration's security policies would be the administration's greatest strength.

You mean like how Pearl Harbor was FDR's?  If Japan hadn't attacked and drawn us into the war, the GOP might well have taken Congress in the '42 elections and there is no way FDR could have run for a fourth term.

[NHI]

Landslide for Bush! Kerry is probably not the nominee, like Dean or Gore again. The Democrat leads Bush up until September and then Bush wins in a victory not seen since Reagan. At least 59% of the vote +400 EV

[JRP1994]

Total bloodbath. New York probably razor-thin margin either way.