WV-Sen: Goodwin out

[RogueBeaver]

So that leaves Tennant or Davis as the sacrificial lamb against SMC.

http://atr.rollcall.com/west-virginia-goodwin-forgoes-senate-bid-in-2014/

[Obamanation]

Likely R

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

Very smart move. Democrats have no chance of winning this seat.

However, a run for Capito's House seat would be welcomed with open arms.

[Maxwell]

I wonder if it ends up just being a complete unknown on the Democrat side,

[Brittain33]

Very smart move. Democrats have no chance of winning this seat.

I find it hard to believe that Dems have no chance of winning, even if the signs point to a slim chance. This state elected a Dem to the Senate as recently as 2010 (!) and many of the issues powering its recent realignment have been focused on Obama and not local Dems. Plus, SMC isn't a great candidate for the state and may yet be teabagged by someone unelectable.

It's not Mississippi.

[Keystone Phil]

Capito isn't a good fit for the state? Huh?

And the Dems won in 2010 because their candidate was Manchin and the GOP had Raese.

[Brittain33]

Capito isn't a good fit for the state? Huh?

And the Dems won in 2010 because their candidate was Manchin and the GOP had Raese.

Says the guy who posts "don't start measuring the drapes, Dems" on every other open seat thread...

[Keystone Phil]

Ok? Your point? I'm not criticizing your statement that Capito isn't a slam dunk. Nice try though. I'm asking how the hell Capito isn't a good fit for the state.

Oh, by the way, I've warned Republicans about measuring the drapes, too, so spare me your complaints.

[Brittain33]

She's nominally pro-choice and from the business rather than populist wing of the party. Her Republicanism well predates the realignment of WV.

[Keystone Phil]

...and her approval/favorability ratings are still above "decent." She's clobbering opponents in polling and is above 50%. That doesn't mean it's a lock but I think it bats down the argument that she isn't a good fit for the state.

And I wouldn't say she's from the business wing at all. Club for Growth was floating the idea of a primary challenge. Didn't DeMint voice concerns, too? I've always seen her described as more populist because of her stances on spending. Her stance on abortion is probably the only issue on which she's "out of line" with the state.

[DrScholl]

Tennant wouldn't be a sacrificial lamb, she's won big statewide twice and would have a good chance.

[Obamanation]

...and her approval/favorability ratings are still above "decent." She's clobbering opponents in polling and is above 50%. That doesn't mean it's a lock but I think it bats down the argument that she isn't a good fit for the state.

And I wouldn't say she's from the business wing at all. Club for Growth was floating the idea of a primary challenge. Didn't DeMint voice concerns, too? I've always seen her described as more populist because of her stances on spending. Her stance on abortion is probably the only issue on which she's "out of line" with the state.

Her strength in polling is due to name recognition and favorable press, not because voters actually know what she stands for. Once her positions are made clear, her numbers will slide. I'm not saying she isn't the favorite, just that her being the favorite doesn't mean that she's a good fit. Voters in this area of the country have a notorious penchant for voting against their interests after all.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Tennant is our only hope.

[nolesfan2011]

...and her approval/favorability ratings are still above "decent." She's clobbering opponents in polling and is above 50%. That doesn't mean it's a lock but I think it bats down the argument that she isn't a good fit for the state.

And I wouldn't say she's from the business wing at all. Club for Growth was floating the idea of a primary challenge. Didn't DeMint voice concerns, too? I've always seen her described as more populist because of her stances on spending. Her stance on abortion is probably the only issue on which she's "out of line" with the state.

Her strength in polling is due to name recognition and favorable press, not because voters actually know what she stands for. Once her positions are made clear, her numbers will slide. I'm not saying she isn't the favorite, just that her being the favorite doesn't mean that she's a good fit. Voters in this area of the country have a notorious penchant for voting against their interests after all.

agreed, and I'm disappointed Goodwin isn't running

[Miles]

The Senate seat is gone, IMO.

The best Democrats can do here is flip the House seat. Tennant is from up in Fairmont but I guess she lives in Charleston as SoS; I wouldn't exactly call it 'carpetbagging' if she ran in CD2, but that's what the DCCC should talk her into doing.

[The Night Owlditor]

Hopefully the Tea Party intervenes and primaries SMC to give the Democrats an edge. Don't discount the possibility of it happening, especially seeing as how SMC is pro-choice in a very pro-life state. Remember, Obama won't be on the ticket in 2014 to drag the rest of the Democrats down. I think Tennant would be the best candidate. I'd rate the seat as Tossup.