Which Senators would be better off in different classes?

[Miles]

Basically, which Senators would be in a stronger electoral position if they could trade the class of their seat.

For instance, Liddy Dole would probably still be serving today if she had a Class III seat instead of Class II; she would have likely won in 2004 and been reelected in 2010.

[Tayya]

How about the woman in your signature? I'm sure she'd prefer 2012 turnout to 2014.

[Miles]

How about the woman in your signature? I'm sure she'd prefer 2012 turnout to 2014.

She's actually really hard to determine; I can't decide for her.

If she were running for a 4th term in 2012, it means that she would have been first elected in 1994, which I don't think would have happened.

[Gass3268]

Russ Feingold

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk in 2016 a prez yr. Inenvitable loses to madigan or quigley.

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

I'll nominate Tom Daschle. Let's say he waits and runs in Johnson's class. In 2002, he edges out a victory against Thune. Johnson runs in 2004, he edges out a victory against Thune. Instead, Johnson goes down to Rounds (most likely) in 2010 in the Tea Wave, and as the new Majority Leader, has a better time taking Noem or another SD Republican down in 2014.

[Mr.Phips]

I'll nominate Tom Daschle. Let's say he waits and runs in Johnson's class. In 2002, he edges out a victory against Thune. Johnson runs in 2004, he edges out a victory against Thune. Instead, Johnson goes down to Rounds (most likely) in 2010 in the Tea Wave, and as the new Majority Leader, has a better time taking Noem or another SD Republican down in 2014.

I think Thune probably would have beaten Johnson in 2004.  Daschle is a far better candidate than Johnson. 

[Skill and Chance]

Basically all Republicans from non-safe seats would be best off in Class III because of 2006 and 2008.  Even goofy candidates like Mourdock would probably have won in 2010 and Akin would come close.  

Scott Brown would have been much better off in Class II.  He would have more time out of the limelight and it would be much easier winning in an Obama midterm and then entrenching himself by 2020.  

Rural Democrats would like Class I the best because they get the 2006 boost and then avoid an Obama midterm altogether.  Plus a lot of them got to run against unelectable weirdos in ostensibly Lean R states in 2012.  Add in that the odds favor either a Republican president or Hillary Clinton in 2018 and they have a lot to be grateful for.

Manchin managed a win in 2010 and 2012 so he probably doesn't care, but his fortune could not have been worse with the timing of the special.

[Mr.Phips]

Basically all Republicans from non-safe seats would be best off in Class III because of 2006 and 2008.  Even goofy candidates like Mourdock would probably have won in 2010 and Akin would come close.  

Scott Brown would have been much better off in Class II.  He would have more time out of the limelight and it would be much easier winning in an Obama midterm and then entrenching himself by 2020.  

Rural Democrats would like Class I the best because they get the 2006 boost and then avoid an Obama midterm altogether.  Plus a lot of them got to run against unelectable weirdos in ostensibly Lean R states in 2012.  Add in that the odds favor either a Republican president or Hillary Clinton in 2018 and they have a lot to be grateful for.

Manchin managed a win in 2010 and 2012 so he probably doesn't care, but his fortune could not have been worse with the timing of the special.

Brown would still probably lose in 2014.  The only way any Republican can win a Senate seat is in a special election with weird turnout. 

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

I'll nominate Tom Daschle. Let's say he waits and runs in Johnson's class. In 2002, he edges out a victory against Thune. Johnson runs in 2004, he edges out a victory against Thune. Instead, Johnson goes down to Rounds (most likely) in 2010 in the Tea Wave, and as the new Majority Leader, has a better time taking Noem or another SD Republican down in 2014.

I think Thune probably would have beaten Johnson in 2004.  Daschle is a far better candidate than Johnson. 

I've always wondered why Johnson survived in a year when Democrats got destroyed, while Daschle, a much more prominent Democrat, fell in a relatively neutral year.

[Maxwell]

I'll nominate Tom Daschle. Let's say he waits and runs in Johnson's class. In 2002, he edges out a victory against Thune. Johnson runs in 2004, he edges out a victory against Thune. Instead, Johnson goes down to Rounds (most likely) in 2010 in the Tea Wave, and as the new Majority Leader, has a better time taking Noem or another SD Republican down in 2014.

I think Thune probably would have beaten Johnson in 2004.  Daschle is a far better candidate than Johnson. 

I've always wondered why Johnson survived in a year when Democrats got destroyed, while Daschle, a much more prominent Democrat, fell in a relatively neutral year.

I think his prominence somewhat hurt him considering its North Dakota. Also, I think Thune gained a lot of legitimacy when he barely lost against Johnson.

[RogueBeaver]

Antonio: Huh? Pubs gained net 2 in '02, 4 in '04.

[Mr.Phips]

I'll nominate Tom Daschle. Let's say he waits and runs in Johnson's class. In 2002, he edges out a victory against Thune. Johnson runs in 2004, he edges out a victory against Thune. Instead, Johnson goes down to Rounds (most likely) in 2010 in the Tea Wave, and as the new Majority Leader, has a better time taking Noem or another SD Republican down in 2014.

I think Thune probably would have beaten Johnson in 2004.  Daschle is a far better candidate than Johnson. 

I've always wondered why Johnson survived in a year when Democrats got destroyed, while Daschle, a much more prominent Democrat, fell in a relatively neutral year.

2002 was more of a Republican breeze than a wave.  Kind of the opposite of 1998, but perhaps a little bit stronger. 

[Mr.Phips]

Antonio: Huh? Pubs gained net 2 in '02, 4 in '04.

Considering the makeups of the seats up in those two cycles, a Democratic loss of seats in 2002 is a lot more pathetic than a Dem loss in 2004(where Democrats had more to defend, especially with the five open southern seats)